三角形灰云模型及其在银行信用评价中的应用

三角形灰云模型技术是现代银行信用评价所普遍使用的评价技术。采用三角形灰云模型信用评价方法,对浙商银行某支行2013年9月信用卡产生的相关业务进行实证分析,将客户信用划分为“优”“良”“中”“差”四个灰类级别,级别越高表明客户信用越好,级别越低表明客户的信用越差,从而为商业银行信贷决策提供依据。     

基于网络社会结构观的“信用长三角”主体建设思考

“信用长三角”建设是“十二五”期间加快区域市场体系建设的重要组成部分.在地区信用联盟建立过程中,完整的信用体系界定与信用主体分析是打造“信用长三角”的前提.从信用体系涵盖征信体系和资信体系入手,研究企业作为社会关系的重要节点,在网络社会结构观下建立完整信用体系的理论架构.分析表明,信用关系的主体包括信用信息的需求方、供给方及信用关系的监管方.信用主体按照信用关系网络的规模及密度维度,决定着其行为的合理性与有效性.     

管理舞弊与风险导向审计模式

管理舞弊引发的审计失败对传统风险导向审计模式提出了严重挑战,危及到审计职业的生存与发展。审计界虽然通过修订审计准则对其进行了改良,但改良后的风险导向审计模式仍然存在不可忽视的缺陷。为此,本文提出,风险导向审计应当继续更新审计理念,即引入舞弊推定和心证,以切实提高审计师揭露管理舞弊的能力。     

Threatened Species as Public Goods and Public Bads

This paper discusses Pareto efficient allocations of an environmental commodity, which is both a public good and a public bad, with an application to the Scandinavian problem of conserving wild predators that are killing semi-domesticated reindeer. The paper begins by briefly outlining this conflict. This is followed by a theoretical analysis employing a diagrammatic tool called the Kolm triangle, which is an analogue of an Edgeworth box in an economy with a public good. Bargaining, Pareto improving reallocations and the shape of the Pareto set are discussed, using a simple model, where one of the agents is involountarily contributing to a public good. The paper concludes with an analysis of income-loss compensations and incentives for illegal hunting of predators.     

Keeping Up with the Joneses: A Model and a Test of Collective Accounting Fraud

This paper explains the variations in incidence of accounting fraud across economic settings by putting the behaviour and motivation of managers under the microscope. To safeguard their reputation in the managerial labour market, managers of firms that perform poorly are prone to fraudulently inflate earnings if they expect the economy to be strong, since that raises the likelihood of peers reporting high performance. A realised level of economic activity, on the other hand, counteracts this tendency on the part of managers to overstate earnings, by reducing the number of firms that actually perform poorly. We term these two effects the incentive effect and the need effect, respectively. The two effects yield a distinctive relationship between the incidence of accounting fraud and macroeconomic conditions. Specifically, the fraction of firms fraudulently over-reporting earnings is positively related to expected economic performance and negatively related to realised economic performance.
The incentive and need effects on collective fraud are examined empirically by relating proxies of the aggregate incidence of accounting fraud to expected and realised GDP growth rates. The results unambiguously support the predicted influence of macroeconomic performance.     

Effect of personality on fraud detection： The Malaysian case

Auditing standards require external auditors to provide reasonable assurance that the financial statements are free from material misstatements, either due to fraud or error. Inability of the external auditors to detect the material misstatements, particularly fraud, may expose them to litigation. The present study aims to examine the effect of personality factors （i.e., neuroticism, extraversion, conscientiousness, openness to experience and agreeableness） on the external auditors＇ ability to detect the likelihood of fraud. An experimental approach is adopted by sending case materials to audit partners and audit managers attached to auditing firms operating in Malaysia. The result shows that personality does not have a positive effect on the external auditors＇ ability to detect the likelihood of fraud.     

基于IDT和ToD理论的网络欺诈分析

基于人际间欺诈理论和欺诈识别理论所提出的伪造、隐藏、模糊化、诱骗、仿冒、制造、重新包装和“双簧戏”等欺诈手段，分析了网络欺诈的表象及特点，描述了五大类网络欺诈形式，即金融类欺诈、基于诱饵的欺诈、通讯类欺诈、信心类欺诈和其他类欺诈，以期为反欺诈提供思路。     

国际贸易中信用证欺诈例外及相关法律问题

迄今为止,我国有关信用证欺诈例外的成文法制建设尚处于空白状态,为了更好地借鉴国外的经验完善国内体制,本文拟对信用证欺诈例外的产生、发展、特征及具体司法操作中何谓欺诈、欺诈例外的排除适用问题等作一系统研究,并就我国在司法实践中存在的问题进行探析,提出自己的一些看法。     

“传销”解析

传销是我国屡禁不止的一种违法营销活动,为有针对性加以防范和取缔,必须解析其本质、特点、原因。     

Climate for Scandal: Corporate Environments that Contribute to Accounting Fraud

We examine the governance characteristics, earnings quality, growth rates, dividend policy, and compensation structure of 97 firms recently under investigation by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for accounting fraud. Our results show that the corporate environment most likely to lead to an accounting scandal manifests significant growth and accounting practices that are already pushing the envelope of earnings smoothing. Firms operating in this environment seem more likely to tip over the edge into fraud if there are fewer outsiders on the audit committee and outside directors appear overcommitted.