论出口骗税的防范与治理

随着国际贸易的发展,出口骗税问题日益复杂化和多样化.如何防范和打击出口骗税行为已成为当前一个亟待解决的课题.对此,各国纷纷采取措施,从制度设计、税收管理、监控检查、机构设置等方面对出口骗税进行防范和打击.本文借鉴了国际经验,对我国防范与治理出口骗税提出了建议.     

Imperfect Accounting and Reporting Bias

Errors and bias are both inherent features of accounting. In theory, while errors discourage bias by lowering the value relevance of accounting, they can also facilitate bias by providing camouflage. Consistent with theory, we find a hump‐shaped relation between a firm's propensity to engage in intentional misstatement and the prevalence of unintentional misstatements in the firm's industry for the whole economy and a majority of the industries. The result is robust to using firms’ number of items in financial statements and exposure to complex accounting rules as alternative proxies for errors and to using the restatement amount in net income to quantify the magnitude of bias and errors. To directly test for the two effects of errors, we show that when errors are more prevalent, the market reacts less to firms’ earnings surprises and bias is more difficult to detect. Our results highlight the imperfectness of accounting, advance understanding of firms’ reporting incentives, and shed light on accounting standard setting.     

公司战略、大股东持股与财务欺诈

以2001-2015年我国A股上市公司为样本,考察企业公司战略定位对财务欺诈行为的影响,研究发现:公司战略对财务欺诈行为有显著影响,公司战略定位越激进,越可能导致财务欺诈行为的发生;经过稳健性测试后,结果依然成立.进一步研究发现:提高大股东持股比例,可以增强大股东对管理者的"监督效用",从而提升企业内部监督效率,进而抑制公司战略对财务欺诈行为的影响.     

个体差异、企业特征、制度保护与流动人口社会保险可及性——基于“福利三角”理论模型的实证研究

"福利三角"理论是现代社会政策研究的重要范式,其也可运用于经验研究。本文基于"福利三角"理论视角,从个体差异、企业特征、制度保障三个维度,利用南开大学"2013年流动人口管理和服务对策研究问卷调查"数据,对流动人口社会保险可及性及其影响因素进行实证研究。分析发现,在个体特征方面,受教育程度、工作年限等对流动人口人力资本具有关键影响的因素,企业性质、行业类型等企业特征,劳动合同、合同协商、工会等制度保障因素对流动人口社会保险可及性具有显著影响。在此基础上,应提高流动人口社会保险可及性。     

Trust and Understanding,Two Psychological Aspects of Randomized Response

This study examines two different Randomized Response methods to see whether they evoke sufficient understanding and trust, and ensure fewer evasive answers to socially sensitive questions. Two Randomized Response methods were employed by trained interviewers to study fraud: the Forced Response method, using dice, and Kuk's method, using playing cards. Respondents were selected from the files of the social security offices of three Dutch cities. A total of 334 respondents participated voluntarily in this study of two Randomized Response methods. Most respondents were known to have committed some form of fraud, and their answer on the Randomized Response question is validated with this information. The results indicate that subjects who have a better understanding of the Forced Response technique give more socially undesirable answers. The interviewer has a most important role establishing trust and understanding. Respondents who are less able to understand the instructions, e.g., have limited language abilities, develop less trust in the method.     

企业危机与管理舞弊的相关性研究

文章选取因年报存在管理舞弊而被证监会会处罚的上市公司为研究样本,按照一定的配比原则选取了配比样本,并计算了行业平均水平,对企业和管理舞弊之间的相关关系进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,企业危机与管理舞弊高度相关。此外,主营业务毛利率、总资产收益率等指标能够显著识     

保险欺诈防范研究与思考

在我国保险欺诈问题日趋严重的背景下,本文通过博弈论理论以及matlab等软件进行回归预测模型的构建,对国际上在反保险欺诈领域领先的国家采取的措施及其经验进行了定量分析。同时,结合我国国情,提出解决我国保险欺诈问题的建议。     

高管团队稳定性与上市公司违规行为关系研究

以中国上市公司为研究对象,考察了高管团队稳定性对上市公司违规行为的影响机理。研究发现：（1）高管团队稳定性对公司违规行为有显著负向影响;（2）高管团队稳定性提高信息披露,进而影响公司违规行为;（3）媒体关注度对高管团队稳定性与公司违规行为关系具有正向调节作用;（4）当违规行为已成既定事实时,高管团队稳定性不利于违规稽查。相关结论对提升我国上市公司治理规范性、推动资本市场健康发展具有重要意义。     

Neural network detection of management fraud using published financial data

This paper uses a Artificial Neural Network (AutoNet) to develop a model for detecting management fraud. The study offers an in-depth examination of important publicly available predictors of fraudulent financial statements. We find a model with a high probability of detecting fraudulent financial statements on one sample. The study reinforces the validity and efficiency of AutoNet as a research tool and provides additional empirical evidence regarding the merits of suggested red flags for fraudulent financial statements. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Is the cardholder an efficient alarm system to detect credit card incidents?

There is a growing tendency in credit card industry to increase the contribution of the smallest players, the cardholders, in the detection of card incidents. This article examines whether cardholders are efficient at detecting/communicating incidents of theft, loss or fraudulent use of their cards. The analysis focuses on whether they demonstrate enough speed of response to support a risk control subsystem by the issuer. The research follows a completely new approach showing how the issue can be handled by applying the concept of elasticity, a notion just recently exported from economics to the field of statistics by linking it with the reverse hazard rate. The issue is focused on the analysis of the characteristics of the elasticity function of the random variable that measures the delay of cardholders in reporting incidents. This study is illustrated with an application to a real data set of 1069 incidents.