北京创意指数指标体系构建探析

本文在分析比较国内外创意指数特点基础上,利用系统的方法,搭建了北京创意指数总体框架,构建了北京创意指数的具体指标,为进一步对北京创意指数进行实证研究奠定了基础。     

供给侧改革中资源与能源行业去产能政策效果研究

中国经济历经复苏和快速增长阶段后,部分产业出现产能过剩现象,产业结构的不均衡变化导致了GDP增速放缓。2016年初中国政府提出供给侧结构性改革,旨在通过“三去一降一补”政策调整产业结构,刺激经济发展。本文构建了一个包含资源与能源产业的一般均衡模型,量化分析中国供给侧结构性改革的政策效果。研究表明,在去产能政策削减上游资源产业的产出后,政策冲击会传导至下游能源产业,导致化石能源相对于绿色能源产量下降14.04%,能源结构实现优化。随后的政策对比实验引入了新能源补贴、碳排放税征收及资源税收缴等财政手段,与去产能政策进行效果对比。实验结果显示,3种政策在不同程度上实现了能源结构调整,其中征收碳税的政策使化石能源占比降幅最大,但同时会使资本利率上升,加重企业融资成本;新能源补贴与资源税的政策也可以实现调控目标,但与去产能政策相比效果更弱。     

普通物理教学之我见

加强普通物理学的教学研究 ,不断提升教师的认识和学识是至关重要的。在教学中应注意基本概念和规律 ,研究数学与物理的关联 ,重视实验教学 ,培养学生观察能力、思维能力和动手能力。     

我国发展市政债券的战略选择

从国际经验来看,市政债券是地方基础设施建设的重要融资工具,因此我国发展市政债券具有重要意义。该文从市政债券的分类与特性出发,分析了不同类型债券的特征以及发行所需要的条件,并提出了发行市政债券的战略选择：即优先发展收入债券,而一般责任债券因发行条件在整体上尚不成熟,应坚持先试点后推广的发展路径。     

How much does a single graduation cohort from further education colleges contribute to an open regional economy?

How much does a single graduation cohort from further education colleges contribute to an open regional economy? Spatial Economic Analysis. This paper combines elements of growth accounting and numerical general equilibrium analysis to produce an alternative micro-to-macro modelling approach. This is used to evaluate the macroeconomic impact on the Scottish economy of the human capital generated by a single graduation cohort from further education colleges. The macroeconomic impact is found to be significant and larger than growth accounting would suggest due to the associated endogenous investment, employment and competitiveness effects. From a policy perspective this identifies the importance of the conventional teaching role of education institutions and the key function played by further education colleges in this process.     

Capital Account Liberalisation by China and the Effects on Global FDI and Trade

We model the partial liberalisation of the capital account by China using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. Our results indicate that a reduced capital controls on foreign direct investment (FDI) would lead to a significant increase in FDI capital in China and a significant reduction in the cost of capital in China relative to the rest of the world. Furthermore, we observe an increase in capital stocks in most regions, which benefits most regions in terms of GDP and GNP. The Chinese economy grows by 3.3% driven by a significant fall in the rental price of capital that, in turn, lowers domestic costs, causes a real depreciation of the exchange rate and thus increased exports relative to other regions. We also observe an across-the-board increase in the saving rate driven by the rise in the price of consumption relative to investment (saving) in all regions.     

“十三五”期间我国经济——能源——环境系统变量发展预测

本文以动态可计算一般均衡模型为基础,2010年投入产出表延长表为基准数据,对“十三五”期间我国经济--能源--环境系统相关变量进行了预测。分析结果显示：“十三五”期间我国经济将实现新常态下的稳定适宜增长,GDP增速保持在65%左右,产业结构进一步优化,第三产业比重明显上升,第二产业明显下降。由于经济增长的原因,能源消费总量与碳排放总量依然较高,但能源消费结构进一步优化,碳排放强度明显降低,节能减排的形势依然比较严峻。     

Microfoundations

This paper argues that the microfoundations programme can be understood as an implementation of an underlying methodological principle—methodological individualism—and that it therefore shares a fundamental ambiguity with that principle, viz, whether the macro must be derived from and therefore reducible to, or rather consistent with, micro-level behaviours. The pluralist conclusion of the paper is not that research guided by the principle of microfoundations is necessarily wrong, but that the exclusion of approaches not guided by that principle is indeed necessarily wrong. The argument is made via an examination of the advantages claimed for dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, the relationship between parts and wholes in social science, and the concepts of reduction, substrate neutrality, the intentional stance and hypostatisation.     

The Short‐Term Economic Impact of Levying E‐Tolls on Industries

TERM is used to analyse the short‐term regional economic impact of an increase in industries' transport costs when paying E‐Tolls. Market‐clearing and accounting equations allow regional economies to be represented as an integrated framework, labour adjusts to accommodate increasing transportation costs, and investments change to accommodate capital that is fixed. 1 1 TERM is a bottom‐up CGE model designed for highly disaggregated regional data. The Enormous Regional Model's originate from Horridge et al. ( 2005 ) and are better explained in Horridge ( 2011 ).
We concluded that costs from levying E‐Tolls on industries are small in comparison to total transport costs, and the impact on economic aggregates and most industries are marginal: investments (?0.404%), gross domestic product (GDP) (?0.01) and consumer price inflation (?0.10%). This is true even when considering costs and benefits on industries as well as consumers. Industries that experienced the greatest decline in output were transport, construction and gold. Provinces that are closer to Gauteng and have a greater share of severely impacted industries experienced larger GDP and real income reductions. Mpumalanga's decrease in GDP was 17% greater than Gauteng's.     

Testing for a unique equilibrium in applied general equilibrium models

This paper introduces a new and computationally inexpensive method to test for uniqueness of equilibrium in exchange economies.