广义虚拟经济的测算范围初探

虚拟经济与实体经济的相互交融已经对国民福利产生了重大影响,这对已有的国民核算体系提出了理论和实践上的新挑战.因为传统的经济学无论是理论还是核算都主要关心的是确定性条件下的现货生产和交易所带来的实际财富变化,我们需要更适用的指标来度量广义虚拟经济与居民福利之间的关系.实体经济虚拟化有管理风险的价值,虚拟经济实体化具有的主...     

股票价格稳定性的非参数平滑估计

股票的优质性主要由股票价格的稳定性来决定。通过建立条件风险函数非参数平滑估计的估计方法,证明条件风险函数平滑后的非参数估计值具有一致性和渐进正态性,并将此方法扩展到了截尾数据中。通过蒙特卡罗模拟表明条件风险函数平滑后的非参数估计值在非截尾数据以及截尾数据中的有限样本行为都要优于非平滑的估计值。实证分析中用截尾数据条件风险函数非参数平滑估计方法非参数估计中国14大行业股票价格的稳定性,发现房地产行业的股票价格最不稳定,建筑材料行业的股票价格表现最稳定     

Cox-Ingersoll-Ross模型的统计推断

该文在离散样本观察下,研究了Cox-Ingersoll-Ross模型的统计推问题,给出了CIR过程的平稳均值m与平稳方差ν的矩估计,并用-m和-ν给出了CIR过程中尺度参数α与β波动率之间的关系,基于CIR过程的平方变差,得到参数β的平方变差估计和参数α的估计.通过数值模拟的方法对平方变差估计与条件矩估计([9])方法作了比较,并选择1997-2006年的R007数据对这两种方法进行了实证分析.     

What explains the performance of students in a heterogeneous environment? Conditional efficiency estimation with continuous and discrete environmental variables

Efficiency estimations which do not account for the operational environment where production units are operating in may have only a limited value. This article presents a fully nonparametric framework to estimate relative performance of production units when accounting for continuous and discrete background variables. Using insights from recent developments in nonparametric econometrics, we show how conditional efficiency scores can be estimated using a tailored mixed kernel function with a data-driven bandwidth selection. The methodology is applied to the sample of Dutch pupils from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development's Programme for International Student Assessment (OECD PISA) data set. We estimate students' performance and the influence of its background characteristics. The results of our application show that several family- and student-specific characteristics have a statistically significant effect on the educational efficiency, while school-level variables do not have impact on performance.     

Estimating gravity equation models in the presence of sample selection and heteroscedasticity

Gravity models are widely used to explain patterns of trade. However, two stylized features of trade data, sample selection and heteroscedasticity challenge the estimation of gravity models. We propose a two-step method of moments (TS-MM) estimator that deals with both issues. The Monte-Carlo experiments show that the TS-MM estimates are resistant to various combinations of sample selection and heteroscedasticity. Moreover, the TS-MM estimator performs reasonably well even when the data generating process deviates from the TS-MM assumptions. We revisit the world trade in 1990 to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed model, with emphasis on the identification of the extensive margin of trade.     

“新常态”下中国经济的“减负”之道

基于广义虚拟经济的理论框架,分析了“新常态”下中国经济如何寻找新的增长动力的问题。广义虚拟经济理论基于全新的财富观,以二元价值容介态为基础,从“新供给创造新需求”的角度,论述了满足人们心理与精神需求的虚拟价值的创造对经济发展的重要性。进而在广义虚拟经济理论的框架下,对“新常态”下健康类产业、文化娱乐产业以及教育类产业,这三个可以成为中国经济新的增长点的产业进行了分析,并将它们总结为拉动中国新一轮增长的“新三驾马车”。最后,提出在“新常态”下,我们必须重塑财富观,重新认识与审视经济,不仅要从观念上要完成从“需求”向“供给”的转变,也要在经济结构调整中完成从“创新”到“创意”的转型。     

广义虚拟经济视角下社会信用环境的相似度测算研究--基于2005～2012年中美德日的样本

研究广义虚拟经济视角下社会信用环境的相似度问题。分析了社会信用环境的特征,提出了社会信用环境相似度测算的影响因素,建立了15个相似度测算指标;基于中国、美国、日本和德国等国家相似度指标的时间序列数据,运用面板灰色关联度思想,进行了社会信用环境相似度测算和比较,为广义虚拟经济视角下的社会信用体系建设提供了借鉴作用。     

What determines international tourist arrivals in India?

Using data for 18 major tourist originating countries to India from 2001 to 2015, this study examines the major determinants of international tourist arrivals in India. The results indicate that past experiences of the tourists, per capita income in the tourist originating country, relative costs of living between India and the country of origin, and the level of infrastructure development in India are key determinants of international tourist arrivals in India. Furthermore, both transportation and communication infrastructure are important in attracting tourists to India. In particular, evidence suggests that availability of road and air network and telephone connections has favourable impacts on international tourist arrivals in India. These results are robust to the inclusion of additional variables. These results have important policy implications.     

Assessing recreation carrying capacity of the environment attributes based on visitors’ willingness to pay

Recreation carrying capacity (RCC) is one of the most important indictors used in measuring the usage limits for the forest park resources. However, the consensus has not been reached with respect to the RCC’s content and its measuring metrics. In this paper, we attempt to establish a new RCC theoretical framework based on the demand theory of the tourism product characteristics. In the process, the choice experiment and orthogonal design methods are used in questionnaire designs and the conditional Logit model is used for parameter estimates. More than 700 park visitors are surveyed for data collection at the Shenyang National Forest park of Liaoning province in China. The primary park attributes being considered encompass vegetation, coverage, water quality, number of rubbish on the park trail path, admission fees, and congestion. The carrying capacity threshold for each specific attribute is identified.     

Spatiotemporal Modeling of Asian Citrus Canker Risks: Implications for Insurance and Indemnification Fund Models

Asiatic citrus canker is a disease that poses a significant hazard to commercial citrus production. This article examines spatiotemporal models of the risks of citrus canker transmission. Models evaluate risks and are used to price annual contracts, which would pay producers a prespecified indemnity in the event that their grove is found to be infected with canker. Implications for risk management policy are discussed.