Climate Change Policy Options for Asian Economies: Findings from an Integrated Assessment Model

This study outlines potential futures for the global economy through the 2050 with a specific focus on the countries of Asia. With underlying assumptions about population and output growth, a baseline scenario assesses the growth of greenhouse gas emissions and the ensuing impacts on the climate. Under the baseline scenario, Asia's high growth leads to a strong rotation in global output and emissions by the year 2050. The analytical framework traces back the changes in temperature to economic damages – limited to the agricultural sectors. Parts of Asia are likely to see much higher dependence on food imports as a consequence of these damages. Various carbon tax scenarios are implemented to assess the potential for reducing carbon emissions. Because of the structure of their economies, Asian countries are likely to bear the greatest burden in reducing emissions in an efficient global tax scheme, but there is significant scope to ease this burden through financial transfers.     

基于OPNET的混合关键性网络建模与仿真分析

混合关键性网络是一种新型的通信架构,可以满足非实时性和实时性业务的需求。为分析其网络性能,提出在OPNET网络仿真环境中建模的方法。以开放式系统互联模型为基础,采用层次化建模,构建网络的节点模型和进程模型。该模型考虑了事件触发和时间触发消息的特点,通过设计调度算法和容错方式,实现了仿真实验的灵活配置和端到端延迟抖动等性能指标的验证。对仿真结果的性能分析表明,混合关键性网络能够保证实时业务的确定性以及兼容标准以太网的非实时业务。     

Cultural Consonance in Leisure,Leisure Satisfaction,Life Satisfaction,and Self-Rated Health in Urban Taiwan

The purpose of this study threefold: to determine whether a shared cultural model of the importance of a set of leisure activities to a good leisure life existed in urban Taiwan, the degree to which cultural consonance in leisure mediates the relationship between leisure constraints and leisure satisfaction, and the degree to which leisure satisfaction affects life satisfaction and self-rated health. Results indicate that a cultural model of the importance of leisure activities to a good leisure life existed among sample members. Second, higher levels of self-reported participation in leisure activities that are culturally agreed upon as more important for a good leisure life are more strongly associated with leisure satisfaction than are activities culturally agreed upon as less important. Finally, leisure satisfaction strongly predicts both life satisfaction and self-rated health.     

What do professional forecasters actually predict?

This paper studies what professional forecasters predict. We use spectral analysis and state space modeling to decompose economic time series into trend, business cycle, and irregular components. We examine which components are captured by professional forecasters by regressing their forecasts on the estimated components extracted from both the spectral analysis and the state space model. For both decomposition methods, we find that, in the short run, the Survey of Professional Forecasters can predict almost all of the variation in the time series due to the trend and the business cycle, but that the forecasts contain little or no significant information about the variation in the irregular component.     

Empowerment and resident support for tourism in rural Central and Eastern Europe (CEE): the case of Pomerania,Poland

Despite empowerment being a crucial component of sustainable tourism, few scholars have quantitatively operationalized empowerment and looked at how it applies to rural societies within the post-communist European Union (EU) member states. Knowing the high priority of sustainable rural development goals within the EU, empowering residents within these post-communist societies has become a pertinent issue especially where those societies appear more reluctant to engaging in democratic ways of decision-making. In response to this gap, this study tests the cross-cultural validity of the Resident Empowerment through Tourism Scale, and then evaluates how empowerment predicts residents’ support for tourism within the municipality of Choczewo, Pomerania, Poland. Using a theoretical perspective that blends Social Exchange Theory with Weber's Theory of Formal and Substantive Rationality, these non-economic empowerment dimensions are coupled with a measure of resident perceptions of economically benefiting from tourism to see if rural residents in Choczewo, Poland, are more swayed by the economic or non-economic benefits of tourism. Results show that residents within this Central and Eastern Europe setting are more influenced by the pride and self-esteem boost associated with psychological empowerment and the perceptions of increased community cohesion (i.e. social empowerment) than the economic promises of tourism.     

Estimating the long-run effects of socioeconomic and meteorological factors on the domestic tourism demand for Galicia (Spain)

Tourism is one of the more important sectors for the economy of Galicia (northwest of Spain). The aim of our study is to quantify determinants of Galician domestic tourism demand and their impacts. Additionally, confidence intervals for these impacts are calculated by bootstrapping data. The results show that income, Eastern vacations and the celebration of the Holy Year of the Apostle Saint James have had a relevant positive impact on tourism. There is also a significant positive connection between a meteorological phenomenon, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and tourism demand. On the other hand, the differential rates of inflation between Galicia and the rest of Spain and the 2008 economic crisis have had a negative effect.     

Determinants and outcome of career competencies: Perspectives of hotel managers in China

This study aims to explore the determinants and outcome of career competencies. Based on the notion that organizations and individuals have respective obligations in the career management of employees’, this study developed perceived “organizational career management’ (OCM) and “career commitment” as determinants and career satisfaction as an outcome of career competencies. Data were collected in the state-owned hotels in China, and structural equation modeling was used to test the proposed relationships. The findings indicate that both perceived OCM and career commitments have positive, direct effects on career competencies. The findings of this study may benefit both hotels and hotel employees by providing valuable implications.     

Understanding organizational citizenship behavior from a cultural perspective: An empirical study within the context of hotels in Mainland China

Scholarly concerns in organizational citizenship behaviors (OCBs) have increased dramatically over the past two decades. Nevertheless, there are significant issues yet to be addressed and resolved, one of which relates to the influences of cultural values on such voluntary behaviors. In view of the importance of OCB in meliorating hotel service and cultivating customer loyalty, the current study seeks to investigate a possible mechanism through which Chinese values (CVs) may function on employee citizenship behaviors within the hotels in Mainland China. The research questions focus on whether CVs have a direct impact on OCB and its verified antecedents, leader–member exchange (LMX) and employee organizational commitment (OC). Eventually, the research findings have verified the conceptual model and confirmed all the postulated linkages among the constructs under study.     

基于情感分析的新能源汽车用户评论语义网络分析与主题建模

新能源汽车的发展进入重要战略机遇期,基于用户评论的文本挖掘能够明确消费者需求、把握产品优劣特性,从而促进市场良性发展。聚合多家汽车网站关于新能源汽车的在线评论数据,在情感倾向分类基础上进行深度挖掘。结果显示：用户对新能源汽车的整体情感倾向呈积极;用户在新能源汽车的空间舒适性、外观和驾驶感受等方面积极体验较高,尤其对其代步出行、外观及空间、节能环保等方面认可度高;而消极体验主要体现在续航能力、舒适性、内饰做工和硬件设施等方面,尤其对内饰做工、电力消耗等方面颇有微词;进一步的LDA主题分析发现,新能源汽车的加速动力、外观、操控、空间、节能环保等优势特征显著,但其智能网联、内饰做工、充电基础设施等方面劣势较为突出。基于此,提出针对性的新能源汽车生产及营销策略优化建议,以期有效提升用户体验,助益新能源汽车产业发展。     

基于三维激光扫描的钢板组合梁结构检测方法

针对钢结构桥梁的传统尺寸检测工作存在数据获取效率低、实地操作困难和检测精度不高等问题,结合三维激光扫描技术,给出一种基于三维激光点云数据的钢板组合梁构件多部位尺寸无损检测方法.主要步骤包括扫描设计、点云获取、点云预处理及配准、截面获取与尺寸检测.以某高速公路桥梁工程钢板组合梁结构检测为例,分别对比了传统尺寸检测方法和本文方法.实验表明该方法具有无接触测量、高可靠性和检测范围全面的优势.