基于运行规划的能源综合服务系统能效管理研究

以浙江电网企业转型现代能源综合服务的具体战略与发展规划为研究背景,针对能源综合服务系统的运行规划目标,开展基于运行规划的能源综合服务系统能效管理研究。从系统工程的视角出发,以能源流为纽带,基于多尺度能源系统建模方法,构建了能源综合服务系统模型,并结合系统综合能效,采用粒子群优化算法来优化系统各设备单元的运行策略,以实现基于运行规划的最优能效管理。通过能源综合服务系统模型计算表明,大规模清洁能源和可再生能源的接入,可以明显提高系统综合能效;随着区域用户总冷量和/或总热量需求占总电力需求的比值增大,系统最优综合能效逐渐增大;与使用内燃机、燃气轮机及汽轮机为原动机的热电联产系统相比,使用燃料电池为原动机的热电联产系统可以使能源综合服务系统综合能效更优。     

Negative affectivity and workplace deviance: the moderating role of ethical climate

This study investigates (1) the relationship between employees’ trait of negative affectivity (NA) and workplace deviance and (2) the moderating role of ethical climate in the above relationship. Data was collected from 310 employees in 40 Taiwanese companies, and hierarchical linear modeling was used to test the hypotheses. Results show that NA was positively related to workplace deviance. In addition, the rules climate weakened the relationship between NA and workplace deviance, and both the instrumental climate and the caring climate strengthened the relationship between NA and workplace deviance. Managerial implications and future research directions are also discussed.     

Accounting for Gender in a Study of the Motivation-Involvement Relationship

ABSTRACT

The effects of gender on involvement in high-risk recreation have received limited research attention despite mounting evidence suggesting the learned interactions between people and places likely vary for men and women. The purpose of this study was to provide insights into how gender influenced the motivation-involvement relationship among whitewater recreationists on a Wild and Scenic River in California. Our results revealed the motivations of Risk, Escape, Learning, and Achievement/Stimulation positively influenced involvement in rafting activities. Although gender did not influence all dimensions of involvement, we found that identity expression varied between subgroups. Specifically, men were more likely to ascribe meaning to rafting than women because this activity allowed them to affirm and express their individual character. The implications emanating from this study advance theoretical understanding of the factors that influence enduring involvement and inform natural resource management decisions about maintaining the desired benefits of activities sought by nature-based recreationists.     

Multivariate Cox Hidden Markov models with an application to operational risk

ABSTRACT

Modeling multivariate time-series aggregate losses is an important actuarial topic that is very challenging due to the fact that losses can be serially dependent with heterogeneous dependence structures across loss types and business lines. In this paper, we investigate a flexible class of multivariate Cox Hidden Markov Models for the joint arrival process of loss events. Some of the nice properties possessed by this class of models, such as closed-form expressions, thinning properties and model versatility are discussed in details. We provide the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for efficient model calibration. Applying the proposed model to an operational risk dataset, we demonstrate that the model offers sufficient flexibility to capture most characteristics of the observed loss frequencies. By modeling the log-transformed loss severities through mixture of Erlang distributions, we can model the aggregate losses. Finally, out-of-sample testing shows that the proposed model is adequate to predict short-term future operational risk losses.     

浅谈“数学模型实验”课程教学

对"数学模型实验"课程的教学模式进行了探讨,介绍了"数学模型实验"的教学内容、教学方法及考核方式,分析了目前该课程教学存在的问题并给出了相应的对策,最后探讨了该课程未来的发展方向。     

Dismantling terrorist networks: Evaluating strategic options using agent-based modeling

Dismantling dark networks remains a critical goal for the peace and security of our society. Terrorist networks are the most prominent instantiation of dark networks, and they are alive and well. Attempts to preemptively disrupt these networks and their activities have met with both success and failure. In this paper, we examine the impacts of four common strategies for dismantling terrorist networks. The four strategies are: leader-focused, grassroots, geographic, and random. Each of these strategies has associated pros and cons, and each has different impacts on the structure and capabilities of a terrorist network. Employing a computational experimentation methodology, we simulate a terrorist network and test the effects of each strategy on the resiliency of that network. In addition, we test scenarios in which the terrorist network has (or does not have) information about an impending attack. Our work takes a structural perspective to the challenge of addressing terrorist networks. Specifically, we show how various strategies impact the structure of the network in terms of its resiliency and capacity to carry out future attacks. This paper also provides a valuable overview of how to use agent-based modeling for the study of complex problems in the terrorism, conflict studies, and security study domains.     

Market Orientation,Competitive Strategy and Firm Performance

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the mediating effects of a firm's competitive strategy in the market orientation-performance relationship. Based on a sample of 371 manufacturing firms in China, evidence was found that the three dimensions of market orientation exert different effects on competitive strategy and performance. Among them, customer orientation has the strongest association with competitive strategy and market performance. This lends credence to a componentwise approach on the study of the relationship between market orientation and performance. The results of structural equation analyses indicate that the mediating effect of competitive strategy is mainly revealed in innovation strategy, the most vital factor in creating superior value for the company in the emerging market. Limitations of this study and implications for future studies are discussed.     

A Structural Model of Leisure Constraints Negotiation in Outdoor Recreation

A conceptual model tested the leisure constraints negotiation process of outdoor recreation: motivation and the constraints to participate likely influenced by negotiation efforts. Higher motivation to participate encourages using negotiation strategies and resources to overcome constraints. Experiencing constraints was thought to trigger negotiation efforts. Drawing from social cognitive theory, negotiation-efficacy was proposed to encourage motivation, diminish the perception of constraints and promote negotiation efforts, which indirectly influenced positive participation. The model tested used data collected from a random sample of Arizona residents through hierarchical confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modeling. Results support the conceptual model and suggest the constraints negotiation process is a dynamic interaction of influences promoting outdoor recreation participation.     

Key Success Factors for Tourism Resort Management

Abstract

NEW HORIZONS IN TOURISM: STRANGE EXPERIENCES AND STRANGER PRACTICES. By Tej Vir Singh. CABI Publishing (Nosworthy Way, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, OX10 8DE UK), ISBN 0-8519-9863-1, 2004, xv + 221-pp. (tables, photographs, bibliography), £49.95 (hardbound). Reviewed By C. Michael Hall

DESTINATION MARKETING ORGANISATIONS. By Steven Pike. Elsevier (The Boulevard, Langford Lane, Kidlington, Oxford, OX5 1GB, United Kingdom), ISBN 0-0804-4306-0, 2004, 231-pp. (bibliography, indices), £59.99 (hardbound). Reviewed By Chris Ryan     

论电视艺术中的光线与造型

光线是电视艺术的基础,没有了光线也就没有了电视艺术。在电视艺术创作中只有充分认识光线的性质,了解直射光、散射光、顺光、侧光和逆光带来的不同视觉效果,才能充分发挥光线在表现时空、刻画人物、强化环境气氛中的造型作用,为电视艺术创作服务。