Development of a Fuzzy optimization model,supporting global warming decision-making

An increasing number of models have been developed to support global warming response policies. The model constructors are facing a lot of uncertainties which limit the evidence of these models. The support of climate policy decision-making is only possible in a semi-quantitative way, as presented by aFuzzy model. The model design is based on an optimization approach, integrated in a bounded risk decision-making framework. Given some regional emission-related and impact-related restrictions, optimal emission paths can be calculated. The focus is not only on carbon dioxide but on other greenhouse gases too. In the paper, the components of the model will be described. Cost coefficients, emission boundaries and impact boundaries are represented asFuzzy parameters. TheFuzzy model will be transformed into a computational one by using an approach of Rommelfanger. In the second part, some problems of applying the model to computations will be discussed. This includes discussions on the data situation and the presentation, as well as interpretation of results of sensitivity analyses. The advantage of theFuzzy approach is that the requirements regarding data precision are not so strong. Hence, the effort for data acquisition can be reduced and computations can be started earlier.     

全球化背景下产业集群的升级——以浙江慈溪、义乌、桐乡典型产业集群为例

产业集群为企业和区域提供了强大的竞争力,但产业集群本身面临着升级的问题。在全球化背景下,产业集群应在全球价值链中从低往高爬升。文章通过实证方法,以浙江省慈溪小家电、义乌小商品、桐乡毛衫三个典型产业集群为例,分析了我国产业集群在全球价值链中从制造、设计到自创品牌的动态升级过程。     

移动加权平均法库存差异原因的仿真分析

主要分析移动加权平均法下库存差异的形成原因。通过构建库存差异的系统动力学模型,对可能影响差异的各种因素进行仿真分析,明确了库存差异产生的原因,进而提出了控制与降低库存差异的方法。     

我国股市全流通态势下积极型组合战略研究--积极/消极型组合战略选择的方法与思路

我国股票市场在全流通态势下,投资组合管理战略思想要着眼于长期投资战略目标,采用合适的方法来规划投资组合管理的全过程.实施积极型投资组合战略,主要取决于权益组合管理的战略思想.     

Some Comments on Embeddedness, Knowledge Transfer, Industry Clusters and Global Competitiveness

This paper develops a dynamic theoretical framework for global competitiveness, which describes the relationships among organizations in an industry cluster. The spiral for knowledge transfer, culture variables and embeddedness influence knowledge transfer. Embeddedness and knowledge transfer are the key determinants of industry clusters that lead to global competitiveness. Industry clusters are characterized by external economies, generalized reciprocity and flexible specialization.     

中国和平发展战略对全球应对气候变化行动的影响

2005年中国首次发布《中国的和平发展道路》白皮书,2011年9月6日中国再次发布《中国的和平发展》白皮书,向全世界公布中国和平发展的战略。中国采取什么样的发展战略,不仅对全球世界政治经济格局具有重要影响,同时也对全球应对气候变化的行动产生重要影响。重点分析了中国和平发展战略对全球应对气候变化行动的影响:(1)中国的和平发展,坚持以科学发展为指导,本身就是全球应对气候变化行动的重要组成部分;(2)中国的和平发展,推动了世界的和平与发展,有利于创造全球应对气候变化的良好政治经济环境;(3)中国的和平发展,推动了全球资源合理有效配置,有利于提高全球应对气候变化的实际成效;(4)中国的和平发展,提倡的是国际合作,有利于推动全球应对气候变化的国际协同。     

Risk measures for variable annuities: A hermite series expansion approach

In this study, we propose an efficient approach to the calculation of risk measures for an insurer's liability from writing a variable annuity with guaranteed benefits. Our approach is based on a novel application of the Hermite series expansions on the transition density of a diffusion process to the insurance setting. We compare our method with existing methods in the literature, including the analytical method, spectral method and Green's function method, and illustrate its substantial advantages in calculating risk measures for variable annuities with different guarantee structures. The improved efficiency makes our method flexible to practical implementation in reporting risk measures on a daily basis. We also conduct a sensitivity analysis of the risk measures with respect to key parameters.     

领导力在项目组合管理中的影响研究

项目组合是连接战略和项目的桥梁。区别于以往有关项目管理中领导力的研究,针对高管和项目经理两种层次的领导角色,界定了领导力的内涵,从战略视角出发构建了领导力对项目组合绩效的影响作用模型,并运用偏最小二乘法和实证方法对理论模型进行检验。研究结果表明,高管及项目经理的领导力均对项目绩效、组合绩效有积极的影响,但项目绩效对组合绩效的作用并不显著。结论强化了领导力在项目组合管理中的关键作用,为研究组合绩效的提升机制提供了新的思路和方法。     

昆山花桥梦世界飞天影院单层球面网壳结构整体稳定性分析

对于球形单层网壳结构进行考虑初始缺陷的几何非线性的有限元分析即荷载-位移全过程分析。     

Forecast combinations under structural break uncertainty

This paper proposes two new weighting schemes that average forecasts based on different estimation windows in order to account for possible structural change. The first scheme weights the forecasts according to the values of reversed ordered CUSUM (ROC) test statistics, while the second weighting method simply assigns heavier weights to forecasts that use more recent information. Simulation results show that, when structural breaks are present, forecasts based on the first weighting scheme outperform those based on a procedure that simply uses ROC tests to choose and forecast from a single post-break estimation window. Combination forecasts based on our second weighting scheme outperform equally weighted combination forecasts. An empirical application based on a NAIRU Phillips curve model for the G7 countries illustrates these findings, and also shows that combination forecasts can outperform the random walk forecasting model.