“新冠肺炎”疫情对我国外贸和就业的冲击及纾困举措

“新冠肺炎”疫情对我国外贸和就业产生何种冲击?本文认为,此次疫情已给我国外贸和就业以及全球产业链和供应链带来严重不利的冲击,需要保持中国出口增长,以支撑进口和就业增长,平稳产业链。此次疫情下我国的内外部经贸环境更加严峻,与2003年“非典”时有着很大的不同。稳就业是当务之急,而稳外贸、稳外资是稳就业的关键支撑力。此次疫情加剧了我国巨量高校毕业生叠加农村城镇化大量人口的就业压力。纾困举措:(1)稳定出口市场维护全球供应链,发挥市场机制的有效配置作用;(2)遏制住疫情,运用财政和货币政策对企业减税降费、增加市场流动性,降低成本和扩大消费;(3)帮助企业有序复工复产,提升营商环境,通过稳外贸和稳外资提升就业;(4)大力提升贸易投资便利化和公共产品服务来支持企业开拓市场;(5)教育部可根据高校实际招生能级,授权其适度增加研究生招生比重来缓解毕业生集中就业压力。     

21世纪海上丝绸之路下“世界水谷”全球体系建设的战略问题

针对海洋新型技术的匮乏、海外园区建设经验不足、文化交流水道形势严峻等问题,结合产业、教育、科技、资本、创业等协同创新方式,构建"世界水谷"全球体系,包括协同创新的商业模式、总部和分谷的组织体系、全球化战略目标等。通过战略需求分析,得出:"世界水谷"全球体系将满足海上丝绸之路对海洋合作的经贸需求,对海外水产业园区及中国-东盟水安全共同体的建设需求,对水产业的资金支持以及水文化交流和水科学创新的诉求等结论。     

Modelling interactions among the housing market and key US sectors

This study evaluates the dynamic interactions among the housing market and ten key US sectors including: consumer discretionary, consumer staples, energy, financials, industrial, technology, health care, materials, utility and telecommunications. Long-run results indicate that the housing market is integrated with each of the ten sector and that the degree of convergence has increased over time and especially after the onset of the most recent housing crisis. Moreover, the housing market contributes most heavily to the common trends indicating that the housing market is the ‘leader’ market that drives each sector towards the long-run equilibrium relationships. Short-run analyses indicate causal linkages emanating from the housing market to each sector with reciprocal feedback. Finally, impulse response function analysis reveal that shocks from each sector affect the housing market but that shocks from the housing market have a (comparatively) more profound and persistent impact on each sector.     

Using stated preference techniques to value four key ecosystem services on New Zealand arable land

Many researchers have noted that not only natural ecosystems but also landscapes actively modified by humans (engineered or designed ecosystems) can significantly impact the level of ecosystem goods and availability of services, thereby impacting human and social welfare. In New Zealand, agricultural lands are the largest area of engineered ecosystems on the national landscape. Study of the welfare effects of ecosystem services delivered by agricultural land can provide important insights into the management of engineered or designed ecosystems. This paper uses the contingent valuation method (CVM) and choice modelling to estimate values of four key ecosystem services: climate regulation, water regulation, soil retention and scenic views, for New Zealand land used for arable farming.     

基于全球价值链和供应链视角的产业集群升级困境及对策探讨

升级是产业集群继续发展的重要战略举措,但我国产业集群在升级过程中却受到各种内外部因素的制约,其中主要包括全球价值链中发达厂商的阻碍,集群内部的不良竞争和无效合作,以及盲目的升级目标定位。产业集群应通过嵌入于合适的全球价值链中,在集群内进行供应链式整合,以及合理确定升级目标,集聚集群内外所有的资源并进行优化配置,来突破升级困境,实现升级目标。     

精密车床主轴计算机辅助设计

将普通车床主轴运动机构视为由四个轴组成,每个轴视为分别装有齿轮和轴承等零件的一个子结构的装配体,利用Pro/E分别建立各子结构的三维实体模型,通过对各子结构装配实现对整个车床主轴传动的三维建模,利用Pro/E软件的Mechanism模块对整个机构进行运动学分析和运动仿真。既保证了车床主轴传动的准确性,也大大提高了设计效率。利用该方法可以使得设计人员快速、直观的对普通车床主轴运动机构进行优化设计,降低机床的研发成本,提高机床的可靠性。     

Complexity and the limits to learning

In this paper we look at the manner in which ideas coming from complexity science change our understanding of the cognitive powers of agents that is really necessary to explain the evolution of markets and of firms. The general ideas behind complex systems dynamics and evolution are presented and then two examples are treated in detail. The first in an evolutionary model of a market in which some new product is developed by competing firms and their “task” is to find a strategy in terms of quality and price that will be sustainable. This essentially requires agents/firms to discover mutually compatible strategies, and to create thereby sustainable market niches. The second example considers the internal structure of firms, in terms of their constituent working practices and skills. It demonstrates that it is precisely their ignorance of the consequences of adopting any particular practice that generates diversity in the emergent capabilities of firms, exploring the dimension of potential demand and therefore leading to a successful and sustainable business sector. The work supports the notion that the cognitive abilities that are involved are not about deduction and logic, as a traditional view of rationality might suggest, but are about the development and contraction of interpretive frameworks, which will be different for each player. The paper links these examples to a general recognition of the idea that complex, multi-agent systems evolve through successive “structural attractors”—multi-dimensional dynamical systems—with temporary structural stability. Because real systems contain both the structure and deviations from it, then there is a constant probing of structural stability and the possibility of qualitative change to a new structural attractor. This resembles the ideas in biological evolution related to “punctuated equilibria,” but it also links this to the idea of emergent and evolving networks of interaction, never of course near thermodynamic equilibrium.      

A multiproduct Symmetric Generalized McFadden cost function

This paper introduces a flexible multiproduct cost function that permits zero values of one or more of the outputs and can impose restrictions quite easily, if not automatically satisfied, to ensure global concavity property. It satisfies linear homogeneity (in prices) property and is flexible in the output space. Thus the function is ideal for estimating, for example, economies of scope, cost complementarity, product-specific returns to scale, etc., without worrying about zero values of output(s) and extrapolations to points far from the point of approximation. As an empirical application, we use panel data (1978–1985) on 12 Finnish foundry plants to estimate technical progress, overall returns to scale, product-specific returns to scale and economies of scope.     

地方产业集群国际化发展风险评价——基于模糊层次分析法的研究

跨区域实现国际化扩张是当前地方产业集群发展的必然趋势。国际化过程中的风险界定、风险识别、风险因素分析、风险规避等是地方产业集群风险管理的重要内容。采用模糊层次分析法对地方产业集群国际化发展过程中的主要风险进行定量分析,有助于地方产业集群采取有效措施预防、化解各种风险。     

生产性服务业集聚机制与耦合悖论分析——来自长三角16个核心城市的经验证据

本文从全球价值链与国内价值链互动关系出发,分析了生产性服务业的空间集聚机制,并以长三角16个核心城市为例对生产性服务业集聚的现状及其耦合悖论进行了理论解析和实证检验。本文研究的主要结论有,第一,在跨国公司主导的国际生产体系中,长三角以代工方式参与国际分工的模式,客观上导致制造业和生产性服务业的空间集聚存在着非同步性;第二,长期以来长三角过度依赖加工贸易方式参与国际分工体系,在很大程度上限制了生产性服务业集聚的程度,原因是跨国公司在对外投资时往往倾向于自带服务,生产性服务外化程度较低,长三角这种低端嵌入的外向经济模式,严重抑制了生产性服务业的发展和空间集聚;第三,信息技术对长三角生产性服务业的驱动作用较弱,长三角虽然是我国高等级的城市群,但技能型人才与生产性服务业的匹配程度并没有达到预期的效果。为此,在第二波全球化中,迫切需要整合全球创新要素来提升国内创新链。