Setting an exam as an information design problem

We take a teacher's exam-setting task as an information design problem. Specifically, the teacher chooses a conditional distribution of grades given students' types. After observing their exam results, each student updates her belief regarding her type via Bayes' rule and chooses an action. Students' reactions to the same exam result could be different, depending on their heterogeneous prior beliefs. The teacher's objective is to persuade students to take a certain action (e.g., applying to universities), which some may not choose without an exam. The teacher adopts different grade distributions, depending on the teacher's and the students' heterogeneous prior beliefs.     

股份回购与资本市场定价偏误——基于上市公司的经验证据

通过选取2014-2021年上市公司实际进行股份回购的样本数据，实证检验了股份回购对于资本市场定价偏误的影响机制。研究发现，上市公司实施股份回购能够有效缓解资本市场定价偏误现象，其影响机制在内外部治理水平较高的企业中更显著，并且通过提高信息透明度和降低投资者异质信念水平两个渠道发挥作用。积极进行股份回购的企业在不同回购特征下均能有效缓解定价偏误，当回购股份被用于市值管理计划和股权激励计划时有效降低误定价水平。     

Predicting stock realized variance based on an asymmetric robust regression approach

This paper introduces an asymmetric robust weighted least squares (ARLS) approach to improve the forecasting performance of the heterogeneous autoregressive model for realized volatility. The ARLS approach down-weights extreme observations to limit the bad influence of outliers on the estimated parameters. Compared with existing robust regression methods, our model further takes into account the asymmetry of outliers using a class of kernel functions. Out-of-sample results show the ARLS approach can generate more accurate forecasts of the S&P 500 index realized volatility in the statistical and economic senses. The model that considers the asymmetry of outliers gains superior performance among various robust regression competitors. The forecasting improvements also hold in other international stock markets. More importantly, the source of the predictive ability of the ARLS model comes from the less biased and more efficient parameter estimation.     

贸易摩擦中关税冲击的动态影响

在中美贸易摩擦背景下，建立国际前沿的异质性动态宏观一般均衡模型，对两国贸易摩擦机制和政策效果进行模拟分析，研究发现，（1）不同于传统的同质性模型，考虑到资产调整成本和价格粘性的异质性模型的模拟结果显示，增加关税会在短期降低两国的消费，提高劳动力供给，造成总需求萎缩。（2）贸易摩擦的加征关税会提高富人的财富水平，降低穷人资产，扩大贫富差距，不利于共同富裕推进。（3）扩张性的货币政策虽然能扩大流动性但是对优化财富分布结构、刺激企业生产和带领经济走出贸易摩擦困境的效果有限；（4）相比于货币政策，企业生产力的提高能在总供给和总需求两个方向上提振经济，优化异质性家户的财富分布，推动经济供给侧和需求侧改革。因此，政府在科研技术方面对企业的财政和政策支持是走出贸易摩擦困境，实现经济高质量发展的最有效手段。     

Enhancing Singapore travel agencies' customer loyalty: an empirical investigation of customers' behavioural intentions and zones of tolerance

The services marketing literature focuses on the measurement of service quality and its impact and consequences on businesses. Set in the context of the travel retail agency in Singapore, this study focuses on the relationship between service quality and favourable behavioural intentions. The findings revealed that improving service quality can increase favourable behavioural intentions. However, service improvements that exceed customers' minimum‐service threshold and those that exceed customers' desired‐service level were found to have mixed effect on behavioural intentions. Hence travel agencies must carefully determine the behavioural intentions they wish to foster amongst their various customers and develop service quality strategies in line with the findings of this study. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

资源异质性投入对基础教育绩效的均衡作用分析——基于区域结构视角

教育公平对促进经济增长实现共同富裕具有至关重要的积极作用，而教育资源均等配置有利于实现教育公平，站在区域空间结构视角：（1）基于教育资源投入产出的教育绩效在省域间具有异质性，由北向南表现低值到高值，高值在中南部半环状分布；（2）各省市教育绩效中心性程度不同，呈现明显的空间聚类特征，经济文化枢纽省市有显著示范效应，东南部主要向中西部溢出，北部地区主要接收溢出；（3）影响因素关联性回归表明影响力度为财政资源>物质资源>人力资源，其中，个人教育事业费优于公用部分，信息化建设强于基础设施建设，高层次师资好于基础性师资，且教育资源分板块区域异质性回归显示存在显著性差异。     

Ethnicity in housing markets: Buyers,sellers and agents

This paper examines how ethnicity related to cultural differences arising from ethnic background affects housing market transactions in the Atlanta metro area. Using both the US Census and Wikipedia approaches to infer ethnicity from individuals' names, we find that the interplay of buyer, seller, and agent ethnicity composition affects interaction in the housing market. Sellers working with listing agents in the same ethnic group set higher listing prices and enjoy higher selling prices and quicker sales. Agents working with same ethnicity buyers yield higher prices and liquidity. Even though sellers only communicate with buyers through their agents, houses sold by sellers to buyers of same ethnicity have higher prices and sell faster. And while the ethnic mix of agents and their clients matter, the ethnic mix of agents in the transaction does not.     

Belief aggregation for representative agent models

Representative agent models pin down equilibrium asset prices of an underlying heterogeneous agents economy through the utility maximization problem of a representative agent evaluated at aggregate endowment levels. This paper considers a complete markets asset exchange economy in which all economic agents are expected utility maximizers who share the same risk preferences but may have heterogeneous endowments and beliefs. For arbitrary well-behaved Bernoulli utility functions we derive belief aggregation formulas that characterize the beliefs of an expected utility maximizing representative agent.     

Stock market,credit market,and heterogeneous innovations

The relative importance of credit market development and stock market development in boosting innovation remains a long-standing debate issue. In this study, we document how different types of financial markets development affect heterogeneous innovations. Using a broad sample across 42 developed and emerging economies and a generalized difference-in-differences identification strategy, we find that stock market development leads to significantly higher substantive innovation, especially in young and small firms, but has negative impact on incremental innovation. Conversely, credit market development promotes incremental innovation, especially in mature and large firms, but has negative impact on substantive innovation. Further analyses indicate that stronger shareholder protection enhances the positive impact of stock market on substantive innovation, while stronger creditor rights enhance the promoting effect of credit market on incremental innovation, and even turn the negative impact of credit market on substantive innovation into positive. Our paper provides new insights into the heterogeneous effects of credit market and equity markets on the real economy.     

衍生品交易盈亏披露会影响瞬时股价吗？——基于2020年A股上市公司的分析

对2020年A股上市公司披露信息中含衍生品交易盈亏信息的数据进行多期双重差分分析，发现衍生品信息无论利好还是利空，皆存在显著负面的公告溢价。衍生品披露当日瞬时股价、3～5个交易日窗口期的累计异常收益率显著下跌，且衍生品信息不会显著影响该股票长期价值。细分披露类型发现，定期披露的衍生品信息导致的瞬时股价波动较小，且具有更显著的公告盈余漂移。