数字时代企业环境审计模式创新——基于环保政策响应机制的研究

企业规避环保责任的机会主义行为导致政府环保政策成效不显著。基于利益相关者理论构建环保政策利益相关者模型,并从环保权力、责任和信息三个角度分析企业的环保政策响应机制。研究发现：由于消费者缺位以及信息不对称等因素的影响,企业的环保政策响应水平较弱。政府应将环保政策施加于消费者,通过消费者来约束企业的行为;审计主体应当转变现有的审计模式,运用数字技术,与消费者合作共同完成审计监督的工作。基于此,提出一种基于消费者需求引导的综合环保政策及新型企业环境审计模式,建议政府应重视数字技术对产业的改造升级,充分考虑消费者的因素来制定环保政策并加大对企业污染数据实时监控的普及。     

后疫情时期承德产业集聚对经济高质量发展效应的实证研究

随着后疫情时期的到来以及经济高质量发展的不断推进,承德产业分工受到了较大影响。增强经济“韧性”,加速产业空间集聚,成为承德后疫情时期经济战略方向的重要考量。论文通过构建VAR模型,实证研究承德产业集聚对经济高质量发展的动态效应,结果表明:产业集聚对经济高质量发展具有周期性循环往复效应,制造业与公共服务业集聚效应显著,制造业专业化集聚的贡献率最大。因此,要加大对制造业、公共服务业等产业的支持力度。     

Killing off cohorts: Forecasting mortality of non-extinct cohorts with the penalized composite link model

Mortality forecasting has crucial implications for insurance and pension policies. A large amount of literature has proposed models to forecast mortality using cross-sectional (period) data instead of longitudinal (cohort) data. As a consequence, decisions are generally based on period life tables and summary measures such as period life expectancy, which reflect hypothetical mortality rather than the mortality actually experienced by a cohort. This study introduces a novel method to forecast cohort mortality and the cohort life expectancy of non-extinct cohorts. The intent is to complete the mortality profile of cohorts born up to 1960. The proposed method is based on the penalized composite link model for ungrouping data. The performance of the method is investigated using cohort mortality data retrieved from the Human Mortality Database for England & Wales, Sweden, and Switzerland for male and female populations.     

Asymmetric ACD models: Introducing price information in ACD models

This paper proposes an asymmetric autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) model, which extends the ACD model of Engle and Russell (1998). The asymmetry consists of letting the duration process depend on the state of the price process. If the price has increased, the parameters of the ACD model can differ from what they are if the price has decreased. The model is applied to the bid-ask quotes of two stocks traded on the NYSE and the evidence in favour of asymmetry is strong. Information effects (Easley and O'Hara 1992) are also empirically relevant. As the model is a transition model for the price process, it delivers `market forecasts' of where prices are heading. A trading strategy based on the model is implemented using tick-by-tick data.While remaining responsible for any error in this paper, the authors would like to thank R. Anderson, G. Le Fol, C. Gouriéroux, J. Jasiak, W. Pohlmeier, A. Roell, O. Scaillet, S. Wei and three anonymous referees for useful remarks and suggestions on previous versions. The authors would also like to thank A. Ruttiens from KBC-CBC for useful discussions on practical issues related to trading. Support of the European Commission Human Capital and Mobility Program through the network `Econometric inference using simulation methods' is gratefully acknowledged. This paper presents research results of the Belgian Program on Interuniversity Poles of Attraction initiated by the Belgian State, Prime Minister's Office, Science Policy Programming. The scientific responsibility is assumed by the authors.     

产业政策目标指向型城市人口规模研究

在分析影响城市人口发展因素的基础上,以义乌市为例,从劳动生产率、产业结构变化、高贡献率行业三方面论证了政策变动因素与城市人口发展的关系,提出产业政策目标指向型城市人口规模计算的研究框架和计算步骤。     

陕西实施农村养老保险制度的经济分析及措施

随着我国人口老龄化的加剧，老年人特别是农村老年人的养老问题日益突出，本文主要通过对陕西农村养老现状和所存在问题的分析，提出了建立农村养老保险制度的建议，旨在于试图为我国农村养老保险制度的实施提供一些借鉴。     

基于高频数据的深圳基金市场日内周期性研究

本文利用深市基金指数高频数据,采用Anderson和Bollerslev(1997)提出的弹性傅立叶回归(FlexibleFourierFormregression,即FFF回归)方法首次对深市基金市场进行了日内周期性的研究。通过对高频收益的定性分析,发现基金市场具有同股票市场相似的周期性,并对这一周期性进行了初步的理论解释。通过FFF方法,将该周期因子进行滤波处理以后,基金指数高频绝对收益不再具有明显周期性。FFF回归能较好地确定日内周期因子。     

浅谈高性能沥青路面

文章主要介绍美国SHRP计划中高性能沥青路面(Superpave)的研究方法和Superpave在实际应用中的技术问题。     

The Effect of Risk Characteristics on the Willingness to Pay for Mortality Risk Reductions from Electric Power Generation

The objective of this study is to estimate willingness to pay (WTP) for the reduction of mortality risks caused by fossil fuel (natural gas, coal and oil) versus nuclear electric power generation systems and to examine the influence of risk characteristics involved with electric power generation on WTP. A choice experiment was conducted to achieve these objectives. The attributes for nuclear risks in the experiment included the probability of disasters and the expected losses if a disaster occurs. We find evidence of (i) a baseline effect (where WTP is sensitive to hypothetical versus actual baseline expected mortality); (ii) a ‘labeling effect,’ where, surprisingly, the term ‘nuclear’ has no effect on WTP, but the term ‘fossil-fueled power generation’ results in lower WTP; and (iii) disaster aversion, meaning that people focus on the conditional loss from a nuclear disaster, not the probability. We also find that the WTP for reducing deaths from a nuclear disaster is about 60 times the WTP for routine reducing fossil-fuel generation-related deaths.     

三峡库区发展高效生态农业的途径和对策

论述高效生态农业在三峡库区建设和移民安置中的战略意义。从三峡库区实际出发，分析库区高效生态农业发展的现状和难点、机遇和方向。指出高效生态农业的发展不仅能给库区移民带来显著的经济效益，促进库区农业、环境、社会的持续发展，而且能确保三峡工程建设顺利进行和长治久安。并针对目前库区农业存在的问题，提出了库区农业高效生态化及产业化的发展对策。