城市旅游住宅地产发展研究

随着旅游业与房地产业的进一步深化结合,旅游住宅地产经营模式正在被众多企业广泛采用,成为城市房地产开发的主流之一.本文结合旅游住宅地产开发经营的实际,对其发展类型、经营特点、潜在的机遇与风险进行了系统的分析,阐述了这一经营模式的应用前景和发展趋势,以期对城市旅游住宅地产的实际经营进行有益的探讨.     

中国城市住宅市场的结构差异性分析

市场价商品房、经济适用住房和廉租房构成了目前中国城市住宅市场的供应体系.依据中国30个主要城市的房地产开发统计数据,选择吸纳率作为评价住宅市场供需均衡状态的指标,利用固定影响变截距模型,重点研究了商品房和经济适用住房供给结构的城市差异性.研究发现,在城市住宅市场中,经济适用住房市场和商品房市场具有很强的相关性.作为具有政府资助性质的经济适用住房建设,存在典型的地域性特征,其政策的设定和实施会对整个住宅市场产生影响,地方政府应在利用比较全面的住宅市场指标体系进行综合分析基础上,制定适合本地的经济适用住房政策.     

制度环境的改善与我国房贷证券化的推进

实行房贷证券化,能够积极有效地推动银行和金融市场的发展,增强国家宏观政策施行的效果,从而促进经济社会的发展。借鉴美国等模式的经验,推进我国房贷证券化,需要构建适合我国MBS发展模式及其体制建设,为住房抵押贷款证券化提供发展空间,创造发展环境。     

我国五大类型企业经济效益的比较分析

在对国内不同类型企业经济效益研究现状评价的基础上,采用因素分析法,运用SPSS软件分析,对我国五大类企业在过去10年间的经济效益情况进行了实证研究,并得出了有关结论.     

Do stock market returns predict changes to output? Evidence from a nonlinear panel data model

Recent empirical work suggests a predictive relationship between stock returns and output growth. We employ quarterly data from a panel of 27 countries to test whether stock returns as useful in predicting growth. Unlike previous research, our approach allows for the possible non-linear effect of recessions on the growth-return relationship. There is strong evidence to suggest that a linear model would be misspecified and provide potentially misleading inference. Using a switching regression approach, we find evidence that returns are most useful in predicting growth when the economy is in recession.First version received: November 2002/Final version received: April 2003This paper benefited greatly from discussions with Kalvinder Shields, Mark Harris, Pete Summers, and Vance Martin. Two anonymous referees provided useful comments on an earlier version of the paper for which we are grateful. The usual disclaimer applies to any errors and omissions. Funding from The University of Melbourne greatly assisted in the completion of this paper.     

城市住宅用地空间扩张机制与调控对策

城市住宅用地空间扩张的必然性与土地资源的稀缺性这一对矛盾,在城市化进程迅速推进的今天显得尤为尖锐,如何实现城市居民居住质量的提高与城市土地资源的可持续利用成为迫切需要解决的问题。文章总结了我国当前城市住宅用地扩张的特点,从经济、制度、技术以及人为干预四个方面对我国当前城市住宅用地空间扩张机制进行了解析,并对城市住宅用地空间扩张过程所出现的问题提出了相关调控措施。     

试论住宅商品化的支撑体系

本文从住宅商品化内涵分析入手,针对当前我国住宅商品化进程中存在的主要问题,提出并论述了由四个基本内容构成的住宅商品化支撑体系①观念支撑;②价格支撑;③金融支撑;④市场支撑.通过对这一问题的深入探索,以期对我国的住宅商品化和住房制度改革有所裨益.     

Volatility in the knowledge economy

Summary. We seek to explain the economic volatility of the last 6 years, in particular the rapid expansion and contraction of the knowledge sectors. Our hypothesis is that these sectors amplify the business cycle due to their increasing returns to scale, growing faster than others in an upswing and contracting faster in a downswing. To test this hypothesis we postulate a general equilibrium model with two sectors: one with increasing returns that are external to the firm and endogenously determined - the knowledge sector - and the other with constant returns to scale. We introduce a new measure of volatility of output, a real beta, and derive a resolving equation, from which we prove that the increasing return sectors exhibit more volatility then other sectors. We validate the main results on US macro economic data of real GDP by industry (2-3 digits SIC codes) of the 1977-2001 period, and provide policy conclusions.Received: 18 March 2002, Revised: 16 February 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D5, D58, E10, L50, L52, O38, O51.Correspondence to: Graciela Chichilnisky     

Development Dynamics: Economic Integration and the Demographic Transition

This paper examines the influence of economic integration—widening of the trading area—on economic development and the demographic transition. Economies produce with different technologies depending on their scale. Greater integration between regions (greater extensive scale) is instrumental in changing rates of return, which generates an industrial revolution and provokes changes in child bearing behavior. The demographic transition follows from the mortality response to income and birth response to greater scale. The model is calibrated and simulated using historical data from Europe. Historical evidence is cited to support the idea that integration precedes the dramatic rise in economic growth rates.