The trend premium around the world: Evidence from the stock market

This paper studies the predictive power of the trend strategy in the international stock market. Using data from 49 markets, we find that a trend signal exploiting the short-, intermediate-, and long-term price information can predict stock returns cross-sectionally in the international market. The significance of the trend strategy is associated with market-level characteristics such as macroeconomic conditions, culture, and the information environment. The trend premium is more pronounced in markets with a more advanced macroeconomic status, a higher level of information uncertainty and individualism, and better accessibility to foreign investors. Nevertheless, the trend strategy only outperforms the momentum strategy in a relatively short horizon.     

CEO incentive compensation and stock price momentum

We document strong evidence that CEO incentive compensation can predict the significance of stock price momentum through discretionary accrual and real activities manipulation. The profit of momentum strategy increases with CEO pay-for-performance incentive, but decreases with CEO risk-taking incentive. It also evaluates the effects of information uncertainty on such relationship. The evidence is more significant for firms with older and longer tenured CEOs and firms with more informed traders. The relationship between the profit of momentum strategy and CEO pay-for-performance incentive is stronger among CEOs without the risk-taking incentive. Our results are robust for different sub-samples based on before and after Reg FD and Sarbanes–Oxley Act, even after controlling for the potential endogeneity. Further, our findings are consistent with the information diffusion explanation of momentum and the agency theory that incentivised CEOs tend to manipulate information by smoothing good news, concealing mildly bad news and accelerating the disclosure of extremely bad news.     

Conditional Equity Premium and Aggregate Corporate Investment

We document a strong negative relation between aggregate corporate investment and conditional equity premium estimated from direct stock market risk measures. Consistent with the investment-based asset pricing model, the comovement with conditional equity premium fully accounts for aggregate investment's market return predictive power. Similarly, conditional equity premium is a significant determinant of classic Tobin's q measure, although q has much weaker explanatory power for aggregate investment possibly because of its measurement errors. Moreover, the positive relation between aggregate investment and investor sentiment documented in previous studies reflects the fact that both variables correlate closely with conditional equity premium.     

机构投资者投资组合与公司特质风险

投资者行为会对公司特质风险产生直接的影响。文章以沪深A股上市公司为样本,探讨机构投资者对投资组合中不同权重公司的治理差异。研究表明,机构投资者持股显著抑制了相对权重较高的公司特质风险的上升,即发挥了积极的监督效应。现有关于机构投资者的研究大都基于总持股比例,对于投资组合权重的考虑明显缺乏,文章的结论有助于丰富机构投资者治理效应的相关研究。     

Stock price synchronicity,cognitive biases,and momentum

The momentum anomaly is widely attributed to investor cognitive biases, but the trigger of cognitive biases is largely unexplored. In this study, inspired by psychology studies linking cognitive biases to the noisiness of information, we examine whether momentum returns are associated with high stock price synchronicity, a manifestation of noisy firm-specific information. Our results demonstrate that momentum is more pronounced in the presence of high stock price synchronicity. This finding is robust to other explanations and firm characteristics. We also find that stock price synchronicity boosts the profitability of momentum by amplifying investor underreaction to new information.     

Ride the trend: Is there spread momentum profit in the US commodity markets?

Some previous researchers have argued that trading strategies based on calendar spread time series momentum (STSM) can deliver significant returns (Szymanowska et al. 2014; Boons and Prado 2019), which, if true, is at odds with the efficient market hypothesis. These arguments however, do not exclude the unrealisable futures contract roll yield and are also affected by other empirical and statistical issues that may lead to misleading results. With more than 30 years of data, we investigate STSM in 22 US commodity futures markets. First, we assess whether past spread returns can predict future returns, a necessary condition for the existence of momentum. We find predictability to be very weak after correcting for the issues affecting prior research. Second, we implement STSM-based investment strategies. We compare STSM profits for individual markets and portfolios to profits generated by a simple long-only benchmark strategy that does not require any predictability. STSM does not generate returns statistically different from the benchmark trading strategy, with both strategies generating very low or negative returns. For the momentum to outperform the benchmark strategy, predictability should be three times larger than observed from real data, but would entail substantial downside risk. In sum, the empirical evidence indicates that returns from STSM-type strategies are illusive for the commodities and period studied. Our results strongly suggest that inclusion of unrealisable roll yield generates the illusion of profitable STSM trading strategies in previous research.     

Price behavior of small-cap stocks and momentum: A study using principal component momentum

This study analyzes why the negative momentum effect appears in Asian (China, Japan, Korea) stock markets, contrary to the U.S. market. We use principal component momentum (PMOM), a newly devised momentum measure. The PMOM is constructed by extracting commonalities from traditional momentum measures using principal component analysis. The results show evidence of positive and negative momentum profits in the U.S. and Asian markets, respectively. Negative momentum profits in Asian markets are attributable to the strong performance reversal of small stocks in the loser portfolio. Conversely, the positive momentum profits of the U.S. market are driven by the performance continuity of small stocks in the winner portfolio. The PMOM strategy is significantly more advantageous than traditional momentum strategies, based on the economic and statistical perspectives of momentum profits. These results are robust to changes in empirical designs.     

健康度视角下区域技术创新生态系统的进化与提升路径——京津冀与长三角的实证研究北大核心

“双循环”新发展格局下,打造科技创新环境,建立健康的区域技术创新生态系统有利于提升国家创新软实力。本文在“高技术企业-高校-科研机构”三螺旋结构下,对正交投影法进行优化,运用Sigmoid函数进行数据归一化,采用考虑跨期的熵权法,对京津冀及长三角地区的技术创新生态系统健康度进行研究,计算其进化动量。结果表明:京津冀及长三角地区的技术创新生态系统健康水平存在较大提升空间,安徽、河北、天津仍处于非健康状态;从进化动量看,京津冀地区技术创新生态系统的健康状况与长三角地区的差距有扩大趋势。因此,文章提出以下建议:优化区域技术创新组织结构,强化企业创新主体地位,积极投入创新资源。