Risk Classification by Fuzzy Inference

Traditionally, policyholders in life insurance are classified in simple mortality tables, most often according to only a few risk characteristics. Instead of a risk classification according to the numerical rating system, this article describes how to classify by using a fuzzy inference methodology. By defining risk factors as fuzzy sets, it is shown that an insurer can utilize multiple prognostic factors that are imprecise and vague. The presented fuzzy risk classification provides a more realistic way of modeling mortality risks since it allows for compensations and interactions between multiple risk factors.     

Advances in Inequality Measurement and Usefulness of Statistical Inference

Assessment of inequality measurement is the focus for this survey. All measures of inequality must be evaluated based on a set of desirable properties. More importantly, the usefulness of statistical inference for measures of inequality needs examination.

智能气调保鲜箱模糊控制系统的研究

针对气调保鲜箱温度、湿度和氮气浓度控制问题，提出了一种简单实用的模糊控制方案，利用模糊推理合成规则，得出了模糊控制结果。     

Drawing inferences about others on the basis of corporate associations

This research examined how observers use corporate associations (e.g., environmental responsibility) in drawing inferences about a target consumers’ dispositions (e.g., whether the target person really cares about the environment). Respondents read a scenario describing a target consumer purchasing a certain brand of pens, whose maker had recently teamed up with an environmental organization. It was found that target-related factors (e.g., impression motivation, the consistency of behavior) and company-related factors (e.g., the congruity of the supported cause with the companys’ reputation) systematically influenced the dispositional inferences made by the observers.     

Bayesian model selection using encompassing priors

This paper deals with Bayesian selection of models that can be specified using inequality constraints among the model parameters. The concept of encompassing priors is introduced, that is, a prior distribution for an unconstrained model from which the prior distributions of the constrained models can be derived. It is shown that the Bayes factor for the encompassing and a constrained model has a very nice interpretation: it is the ratio of the proportion of the prior and posterior distribution of the encompassing model in agreement with the constrained model. It is also shown that, for a specific class of models, selection based on encompassing priors will render a virtually objective selection procedure. The paper concludes with three illustrative examples: an analysis of variance with ordered means; a contingency table analysis with ordered odds-ratios; and a multilevel model with ordered slopes.     

Hybrid performance evaluation of sustainable service and manufacturing supply chain management: An integrated approach of fuzzy dematel and fuzzy inference system

The aim of this paper is to propose a comprehensive framework for simultaneously measuring the performance of sustainable service and manufacturing supply chain management. Application of the proposed approach also results in reduced uncertainty of the performance measurement process caused by qualitative criteria evaluation. The proposed approach consists of two main steps. First, the fuzzy decision‐making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method has been used to determine important criteria by avoiding low influences; and then a Mamdani fuzzy inference system model has been adopted and applied for performance evaluation of sustainable supply chain management (SSCM). This model is employed in order to cope with the vagueness that exists in the SSCM performance investigation due to the vagueness intrinsic in the evaluation of criteria. In the proposed model, human reasoning has been modelled with fuzzy inference rules and has been set in the system, which is an advantage compared with those models in which fuzzy set theory and multicriteria decision‐making models are integrated. The proposed approach has been implemented in the pipe and fitting industry in order to highlight its application in real life. Sensitivity analysis has been carried out to determine the influence of service and manufacturing criteria on SSCM performance. The findings reveal that sustainable manufacturing criteria compared with sustainable service criteria have more effect on the performance of SSCM.     

Testing rebalancing strategies for stock-bond portfolios across different asset allocations

We compare the risk-adjusted performance of stock–bond portfolios between rebalancing and buy-and-hold across different asset allocations by reporting statistical significance levels. Our investigation is based on a 30-year dataset and incorporates the financial markets of the United States, the United Kingdom and Germany. To draw useful recommendations to investment management, we implement a history-based simulation approach which enables us to mimic realistic market conditions. Even if the portfolio weight of stocks is very low, our empirical results show that a frequent rebalancing significantly enhances risk-adjusted portfolio performance for all analysed countries and all risk-adjusted performance measures.     

Impact of “High Quality,Low Price” Appeal on Consumer Evaluations

Marketers frequently adopt a “high quality, low price” appeal in advertisements. However, the price–quality inference theory implies that this contextual appeal may not be well-accepted by consumers because it contains two contradictory cues: high quality and low price. This article investigates how consumers evaluate this appeal through two laboratory experiments. Study 1 shows that the appeal leads to favorable price perceptions and purchase intentions when the product price is high; it leads to high quality perceptions when the price is low. Study 2 shows that these effects are salient when consumers have a weak price–quality schema or a low need-for-cognition.     

Election frequency,choice fatigue,and voter turnout

Influential scholars have argued that frequent elections lead to voter fatigue and can therefore be directly responsible for low turnout in countries characterized by frequent contests. However, other theories predict that frequent elections can even increase turnout. The existing empirical evidence is problematic as it simply correlates election frequency with turnout. By contrast, I exploit a natural experiment in the German state of Hesse, where voters from different municipalities faced the same electoral contest but experienced different election frequency, due to the staggered timing of some local elections. I find that when two elections are scheduled within a relatively short period of time, voter turnout at the later election is significantly reduced. This effect is stronger when the election is deemed less important in the eyes of the voters. Election frequency thus might also partly explain the wide turnout gap between first- and second-order elections, as suggested by Lijphart (1997).