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201.
Hugh L. Christensen Richard E. Turner Simon I. Hill Simon J. Godsill 《Quantitative Finance》2013,13(11):1779-1799
The limit order book of an exchange represents an information store of market participants’ future aims and for many traders the information held in this store is of interest. However, information loss occurs between orders being entered into the exchange and limit order book data being sent out. We present an online algorithm which carries out Bayesian inference to replace information lost at the level of the exchange server and apply our proof of concept algorithm to real historical data from some of the world’s most liquid futures contracts as traded on CME GLOBEX, EUREX and NYSE Liffe exchanges. 相似文献
202.
《Journal of Retailing》2021,97(4):621-638
Electronic word-of-mouth (eWOM) dispersion, reflecting the extent of reviewers’ opinion divergence regarding a product, determines consumer decisions. Drawing upon the endowment effect and attribution literature, this research proposes that the endowment effect mediates the influence of eWOM dispersion on attributional inferences, and the display formats of eWOM dispersion (“horizontal bar chart” vs. “eWOM content”) moderate the mediating influence of endowment effect on attributional inferences of eWOM dispersion. Three complementary studies reveal three key insights in this setting. First, when consumers already having an emotional attachment to a product and subsequently encountering dispersive eWOM, the higher the level of eWOM dispersion, the stronger the endowment effect. Secondly, In such circumstance, the stronger endowment effect promotes more reviewer-related attribution inference of high-dispersion eWOM, and the weaker endowment effect promotes more product-related attribution inference of low-dispersion eWOM. Third, the positive influence of eWOM dispersion on endowment effect is stronger for eWOM dispersion in the complexity or disfluency display format (i.e. “reviewers’ impression of product”) than for eWOM dispersion in the simply of fluency display format (i.e. “horizontal bar chart”), more importantly, the mediating influence of endowment effect on attributional inferences is moderated by the display formats of eWOM dispersion, and this findings persists even when product category (hedonic vs. utilitarian) is taken into consideration. The theoretical implications for the eWOM dispersion and attribution literature and practical implications for online retailers are discussed. 相似文献
203.
In the last decade, calibration estimation has developed into an important field of research in survey sampling. Calibration is now an important methodological instrument in the production of statistics. Several national statistical agencies have developed software designed to compute calibrated weights based on auxiliary information available in population registers and other sources. This paper reviews some recent progress and offers some new perspectives. Calibration estimation can be used to advantage in a range of different survey conditions. This paper examines several situations, including estimation for domains in one‐phase sampling, estimation for two‐phase sampling, and estimation for two‐stage sampling with integrated weighting. Typical of those situations is complex auxiliary information, a term that we use for information made up of several components. An example occurs when a two‐stage sample survey has information both for units and for clusters of units, or when estimation for domains relies on information from different parts of the population. Complex auxiliary information opens up more than one way of computing the final calibrated weights to be used in estimation. They may be computed in a single step or in two or more successive steps. Depending on the approach, the resulting estimates do differ to some degree. All significant parts of the total information should be reflected in the final weights. The effectiveness of the complex information is mirrored by the variance of the resulting calibration estimator. Its exact variance is not presentable in simple form. Close approximation is possible via the corresponding linearized statistic. We define and use automated linearization as a shortcut in finding the linearized statistic. Its variance is easy to state, to interpret and to estimate. The variance components are expressed in terms of residuals, similar to those of standard regression theory. Visual inspection of the residuals reveals how the different components of the complex auxiliary information interact and work together toward reducing the variance. 相似文献
204.
Hyperparameter estimation in dynamic linear models leads to inference that is not available analytically. Recently, the most common approach is through MCMC approximations. A number of sampling schemes that have been proposed in the literature are compared. They basically differ in their blocking structure. In this paper, comparison between the most common schemes is performed in terms of different efficiency criteria, including efficiency ratio and processing time. A sample of time series was simulated to reflect different relevant features such as series length and system volatility. 相似文献
205.
We describe a flexible geo-additive Bayesian survival model that controls, simultaneously, for spatial dependence and possible nonlinear or time-varying effects of other variables. Inference is fully Bayesian and is based on recently developed Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques. In illustrating the model we introduce a spatial dimension in modelling under-five mortality among Malawian children using data from Malawi Demographic and Health Survey of 2000. The results show that district-level socioeconomic characteristics are important determinants of childhood mortality. More importantly, a separate spatial process produces district clustering of childhood mortality indicating the importance of spatial effects. The visual nature of the maps presented in this paper highlights relationships that would, otherwise, be overlooked in standard methods. 相似文献
206.
The strength and range of interpoint interactions in a spatial point process can be quantified by the function J = (1 - G)/(1 - F), where G is the nearest-neighbour distance distribution function and F the empty space function of the process. J(r) is identically equal to 1 for a Poisson process; values of J(r) smaller or larger than 1 indicate clustering or regularity, respectively. We show that, for a large class of point processes, J(r) is constant for distances r greater than the range of spatial interaction. Hence both the range and type of interaction can be inferred from J without parametric model assumptions. It is also possible to evaluate J(r) explicitly for many point process models, so that J is also useful for parameter estimation. Various properties are derived, including the fact that the J function of the superposition of independent point processes is a weighted mean of the J functions of the individual processes. Estimators of J can be constructed from standard estimators of F and G. We compute estimates of J for several standard point pattern datasets and implement a Monte Carlo test for complete spatial randomness. 相似文献
207.
Methods developed for making time-varying forecasts in economic and financial analysis include (a) equal-weighted moving-window (or rolling) regression, (b) time-weighted (e.g. exponentially weighted) regression, (c) the Kalman filter (KF) and (d) adaptive Kalman filters. This paper developed a new method based on variational approximation of sequential Bayesian inference (VASB). Concepts and notions of the sequential Bayesian analysis and the variational approximation of an intractable posterior are simple and straightforward. Our VASB algorithm is not complicated and is easy to code. For a regression on multiple time-series, the regression coefficients, standard errors, prediction and residual error are time-varying and are estimated jointly at every time step. For a single time-series (e.g. price returns of an asset), its mean and variance are time-varying and are predicted jointly at every time step. The VASB algorithm performs better than the rolling and time-weighted statistics or regressions and the KF in terms of higher predictive power and stronger robustness. Derivations of the VASB algorithm are presented in the appendices. 相似文献
208.
209.
Tom Britton 《Statistica Neerlandica》2020,74(3):222-241
This article considers stochastic models for the spread of an infection in a structured community, where this structured community is itself described by a random network model. Some common network models and transmission models are defined and large population properties of them are presented. The focus is then shifted to statistical methodology: what can be estimated and how, depending on the underlying network, transmission model, and the available data? This survey article discusses several different scenarios, giving references to publications where more details can be found, and identifies important open problems. 相似文献
210.
S. B. Provost 《Metrika》1988,35(1):191-196
The exact density of the statistic ln
, where
and
denote, respectively, the arithmetic and the geometric means of a random sample from a two-parameter gamma distribution,
is obtained in a computable form using the technique of the inverse Mellin transform. This statistic is related to the maximum
likelihood estimator of the shape parameter of a gamma distribution. 相似文献