Making Good Decisions with Minimal Information: Simultaneous and Sequential Choice

The adaptive pressures facing humans and other animals to make decisions quickly can be met both by increasing internal information-processing speed and by minimizing the amount of information to be used. Here we focus on the latter effect and ask how, and how well, agents can make good decisions with a minimal amount of information, using two specific tasks as examples. When a choice must be made between simultaneously-available options, minimal information in the form of binary recognition (whether or not each item is recognized) can be used in the recognition heuristic to choose effectively. When options are encountered sequentially one at a time, minimal information as to whether or not each option is the best encountered so far is sufficient to guide agents using a simple search-cutoff rule to high performance along several choice criteria. Both of these examples have important economic as well as biological applications, and show the power of simple fast and frugal heuristics to produce good decisions with little information. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

TRANSATLANTIC CAPITAL MARKET PRICE DISCOVERY DURING A FINANCIAL CRISIS

Previous results show relatively small amounts of time variation in the Hasbrouck (1995) information share across international markets. Using data from a security that was cross‐listed on the New York and London Stock Exchanges in the 1860s, we find that the information share changes dramatically during a financial crisis that began in the foreign market.     

Travel motivations and destination choice: A study of British outbound market

Abstract

Knowledge of people's travel motivations and its association with destination selection plays a critical role in predicting future travel patterns. The objectives of this study were to uncover the underlying push and pull factors of motivation associated with British outbound pleasure travelers as well as to identify key motivational factors that have significant effects on destination choice. Six push factors and five pull factors were found. “Knowledge seeking” and “cleanliness & safety” were perceived as the most important push and pull factors respectively. The results of logistic regression analyses snowed that the British tend to visit the U.S. for “fun & excitement” and “outdoor activities,” Oceania for “family & friend togetherness,” and Asia to seek a “novel experience.” The findings of differential motivational factors across seven destinations suggest that a destination can capitalize on its strengths with an optimal combination of push and pull factors to attract and retain the British travelers.     

广西城乡居民信息消费分化影响因素研究

根据消费理论及信息消费的特点,城乡居民信息消费分化是多因素综合作用的结果。5变量SVAR(2)模型的实证结果进一步表明收入分化和文化素质分化是信息消费分化最重要的两个内在影响因素,其贡献率分别为29%和28%;紧随其后的消费氛围分化与消费条件分化是不容忽视的外在因素,贡献率分别为20%和18%。显然,降低这些影响因素的分化程度是有效缓解城乡信息消费分化的关键。     

Productivity and technical change: the case of Taiwan

This paper analyses productivity growth in 16 of Taiwan's manufacturing industries during the period 1978–1992. The non-parametric Data Envelopment Analysis approach is used to compute Malmquist productivity indexes. These are decomposed into efficiency change and technical change. The latter is further decomposed into an output bias, an input bias and a magnitude component. In addition, the direction of input bias is identified. Empirical results indicate that the sector's TFP increased at a rate of 2.89% per annum, which could be ascribed to a technical progress (2.56%) and an efficiency improvement (0.33%).     

Investor Relations （IR） in Business Communication on the Example of Poland

This paper focuses on investor relations （IR） as an element of companies＇ communication with the external environment. It shows the place and role of IR in communication with the general market, and the stock exchange market in particular. The study is illustrated with an example of IR in Poland, a relatively new European Union （EU） member state and an emerging market. As can be seen, IR goes beyond the traditionally understood maintenance of communication with the capital market. It is also shown that the main role of IR ought to be the reduction of investment risk and enhancement of the companies＇ value, which is of particular significance in light of the current globalization of capital markets. It has been found that Polish companies, especially those listed on the Warsaw Securities Exchange （WSE）, commonly rely on IR as a means of communication with the environment. And yet, as the results of the analysis show, the quality of that communication is still far from satisfactory, despite efforts undertaken by various external entities to encourage more focus on the development of IR, or understanding of the company＇s relevant staff of its important role.     

Effects of two national environmental factors on e-commerce functionality adoption: a cross-country case study of a global bank

In order to offer new services and gain competitive advantages, e-commerce has been widely adopted, particularly in the banking industry. Unfortunately, despite the growing adoption of e-commerce in the banking industry, the issue that web-based B2C e-commerce functionality adoption varies between banks or a bank's branches across nations has not received sufficient attention. Many factors affect e-commerce functionality adoption. However, two national environmental factors (information infrastructure and demographics) are particularly important because they relate to the availability of technologies in use and the characteristics of customers, respectively. This research conducts a cross-country case study of a global bank's Beijing (China), Chicago (USA), and Dubai (UAE) branches to investigate how the two national environmental factors affect e-commerce functionality adoption. The specific objectives are to discover how information infrastructure (measured by number of PCs per 1000 people and Internet access cost) and demographics (measured by population composition and income) affect e-commerce functionality adoption of the global bank's three branches. Secondary data were collected for information infrastructure and demographics; additionally, focused interviews with these three branches' IT and business managers provided sources for answering ‘how’. The key finding demonstrates that the differences in e-mail ordering and online shopping adoptions between these branches are mainly attributed to proposed factors of population composition and Internet access cost, and the new factor of individual credit reference system. This research contributes to theory development in this emerging important research subject.     

Asset allocation in markets with contagion: The interplay between volatilities,jump intensities,and correlations

We study the impact of financial contagion on the dynamic asset allocation problem of a CRRA investor facing an incomplete market with two risky assets. We apply a Markov chain regime-switching framework with state-dependent jump intensities, diffusion volatilities and diffusion correlations. The key model feature that a switch to the bad contagion regime is triggered by a loss in one of the risky assets allows for the implementation of a hedging demand against contagion risk. Moreover, a state-dependent diffusion correlation combined with heterogeneity in jump intensities and volatilities can, e.g., generate a flight to quality effect upon a systemic jump.     

Types of Word-of-Mouth Messages: Information Search and Credence-Based Services

Word-of-mouth communication (WOMC) has been recognized as a powerful marketing communication medium and a credible information-gathering tool. To date, the various types of WOM messages have not been adequately studied, especially in credence-based services (CBS). Using the individual interview technique, this study fills this gap by describing the three types of WOMC messages in CBS information-gathering. The results contribute to the ongoing development of WOMC theory and also advance management's understandings of the types of WOMC messages in the CBS information-gathering process.