Shadow price of working in the shadows: services industry evidence

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we use an exogenous policy variation in the labour market to determine the wage gap between formally and informally employed workers. For our purposes, ‘informal employment’ describes employees who are not officially registered with any social security scheme. We use self-reported employee registration status to identify such workers, but the choice of working unregistered is not exogenous. Nevertheless, through an amnesty that was extended to only some workers in the labour market, we reduce the endogeneity problem, enabling estimation of the wage gap between these two groups. Our two-stage least square estimates reveal that the hourly wage penalty of working in the shadows is as high as 59%, and the monthly salary penalty is around 66%. Moreover, the wage gap is higher (as high as 70%) for those working in the services sector, as unregistered workers in this sector tend to be low skilled and low educated, and the monitoring of this sector is more difficult. Our analysis contributes to the literature by using an instrumental variable to treat the endogeneity of workers’ registration status. In addition, it shows that people working informally in the services industry receive a higher average wage penalty than other informally employed workers.     

How convergent are rice export prices in the international market?

This study revisits the issue of long-term price convergence of rice export prices for India, Pakistan, Thailand, Uruguay, the United States, and Vietnam using a two-stage pairwise unit root testing approach. To deduce evidence or lack of proof of convergence in price series, we also examine convergence using sigma and beta convergence specified in both unconditional and conditional frameworks. The methodology used is driven by the need to address three key concerns: (i) the likelihood of finding stationary price differentials, (ii) the magnitude of these differentials, and (iii) their speed of adjustment. To evaluate these concerns, we use monthly data for 18 price series drawn from these six countries from September 2011 to February 2021. The evidence points to a lack of international convergence. This gives rise to the possibility that a shield from a general downward export price trend is already in place for some exporters. Furthermore, we find that the likelihood of convergence is greater between pairs of price series that are characterized as high quality or having the same country of origin or having similar market share. Evidence also suggests that a converged pairing is more likely to have a smaller price differential if both price series are for low-quality rice.     

Some evidence on the cohort earnings differentials of men in Japan

This study analyses the cohort earnings differentials of full-time working men in Japan using large micro data on individuals. Log earnings differentials between two cohorts of the same age calculated from 2012 and 2017 surveys reveal a substantial earnings decline for university graduates around age 43 and senior high school graduates around age 38 in 2017. These cohorts experienced a severe deterioration of job opportunities after the bubble burst. The Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition shows that the composition effect dominates the wage structure effect. In particular, a shortened length of tenure and a decline in the share of those working in a large firm are the main causes of the earnings gap for senior high school graduates and for university graduates, respectively. While an increase in the proportion of those working in the service sector and a reduced share of regular workers are also important determinants for the earnings differentials for high school graduates, deteriorated opportunities for promotion to supervisory positions play an important role for university graduates. Extending this analysis to a longer time period and estimating the cohort earnings differential equation clarify that the observed stability of cohort earnings differentials for university graduates emerge not only from the importance of firm size differentials in determining their earning differentials, but also from the high stability of firm size differentials between cohorts for university graduates.     

Re-examination of price level differentials using economic freedom index

Findings reported in this paper provide improved explanation as to what factors are correlated with price levels across a large sample of 152 countries. The results are obtained from using a new set of variables called economic freedom indices, covering 19 years. Prior studies used income, trade openness, and productivity, which led to results with much less explanatory power compared to findings reported in this paper. We apply advanced panel data econometrics to obtain robust estimates of parameters, which, in our view, led to results with substantially high coefficient of variations close to 90%. The findings show that all the nine dimensions of economic freedom used in this study significantly account for the variations in national price levels.     

Foreign direct investment productivity premium and foreign affiliates' heterogeneity: A comparison between advanced and emerging market overseas investments in the EU

This paper aims to investigate the existence of productivity heterogeneity among foreign‐owned firms (FOFs) based in the European Union (EU). Using firm‐level data for a sample of FOFs investing in the EU over the period 2006–14, we find that foreign affiliates from advanced countries (AFOFs) show a positive productivity gap compared to foreign affiliates from emerging countries (EFOFs). However, when we consider the type and the motivation of foreign direct investment, our results reveal that, while AFOFs always seem to be more productive than EFOFs in manufacturing sectors, EFOFs appear to enjoy a productivity premium compared to AFOFs in the services, when their activity occurs in the same industry as their parent and they operate in less knowledge‐intensive market sectors.     

Private returns to education versus education spill-over effects

In this study we test whether education spill-over effects biase private returns to education. We newly investigate for such effects within narrowly defined occupational groups of a given firm using, going thus a step further than earlier studies analysing such effects at employer level or within regions. Using panel data from a Swiss employer-based labour force survey of 1996 we find clear empirical evidence for education spill-over effects on individual wages (2%). This result proved to be robust against an alternative explanation based on imperfect substitution between highly and less educated workers. Consequently, conventionally calculated private returns to education are shown to be biased upwards. This work was undertaken under the TSER program PL980182 for the PuRE project and was supported by the Swiss Federal Office for Education and Science. I thank Josef Zweimüller and Rafael Lalive for their valuable suggestions. Any remaining errors are my own.     

Inflation Expectations and Inflation Uncertainty in the Eurozone: Evidence from Survey Data

This paper uses the European Commission’s Consumer Survey to assess whether inflation expectations have converged and whether inflation uncertainty has diminished following the introduction of the euro in Europe. Consumers’ responses to the survey suggest that inflation expectations depend more on past national inflation rates than on the ECB’s anchor for price stability. Inflation expectations do not converge significantly faster than actual inflation rates. Regarding inflation uncertainty, the data indicate a relationship with country size following the introduction of the euro. This suggests that within EMU, inflation uncertainty may increase in countries that have a smaller influence on ECB policy. JEL no.  D84, E31, E58     

市场开放度、劳动生产率与我国地区工资差异

以新经济地理学的空间工资结构理论为基础,实证分析了我国西部大开发以来市场开放度、劳动生产率与地区工资差异之间的关系,结果表明,从全国角度来看,市场开放度和人力资本的增加对工资增长的贡献效应很显著,劳动生产率和外商直接投资的增加虽然对工资增长的贡献效应为正,但其效果并不明显;分东、中、西地区来看,市场开放度增加对工资增长的贡献,东部高于中部,更高于西部;人力资本的贡献效应则恰好与之相反;劳动生产率和外商直接投资的增加对工资增长的贡献效应在不同地区的差别并不明显。     

Earnings Differentials Determinants Between Skills in the Malaysian Manufacturing Sector

The Malaysian manufacturing sector has been experiencing a gradual change in its production process as it shifts from labor-intensive to more capital-intensive techniques. This has led to a change in the skills required by the industries where skilled workers are in greater demand and where the wage ratio between skills favors the skilled workers. There are many factors that can influence an indi-vidual's earnings. These include educational attainment, job location, types of industries and sex. This paper attempts to measure the determinants of earnings differentials among skilled, semi-skilled and unskilled workers in the Malaysian manufacturing sector. The analysis is based on a survey of 2065 workers in six major industries conducted in 1999. These are the electrical and electronics, textile, wood-based, transport equipment, food and chemical industries. The determin-ants of earnings differentials are obtained by using the coefficients of the earnings functions. These factors are decomposed into several categories, namely human capital, individual characteristics and the residual. The results reveal that human capital variables, which comprise education, training and experience, play a significant role in determining the earnings differentials, particularly between skilled and semi-skilled workers and between semi-skilled and unskilled workers.     

Commuting in Happyville: Taxation with interjurisdictional commuting and pollution

This paper presents a spatial model of tax competition in an asymmetric duocentric city with traffic‐related pollution. Jurisdictions differ in productivity and both wage or commuting and head taxes are applied. Residential location is given, but agents can choose their workplace. We show that the incentive for the high productive jurisdiction to export the tax burden by attracting cross‐commuters is reduced by the resulting pollution import; this affects the welfare impacts of tax competition. The possibility that households may misperceive their exposure to pollution is explored and its impact of fiscal competition is analyzed. When households are very optimistic about their exposure, aggregate welfare may be higher than in the first best.