Trading strategies based on term structure model residuals

The term structure of interest rates is an important input for basically every pricing model and is mostly calibrated on coupon bond prices. Therefore, the estimated interest rates should accurately explain the market prices of these bonds. However, nearly all empirical papers on interest rate estimation, e.g. Svensson, L.E.O. 1994. Estimating and interpreting forward interest rates: Sweden 1992–1994, IMF Working Paper, International Monetary Fund, report significant pricing errors in their sample. So an important question is what drives these pricing errors of the bonds. One simple explanation would be different tax treatment or different liquidity, but most papers on this research topic, e.g. Elton, E., and T.C. Green. 1998. Tax and liquidity effects in pricing government bonds. Journal of Finance 53: 1533–62, cannot fully explain the observed pricing errors. Therefore, these errors must be at least partially caused by either model misspecification or by the deviation of particular bond prices from general market conditions, i.e. mispricing revealing insufficient market efficiency. We provide empirical evidence for the German government bond market that risk-adjusted trading strategies based on bond pricing errors can yield about 15 basis points p.a. abnormal return compared to benchmark portfolios. Furthermore, the abnormal returns are continuously achieved over the whole time period and not randomly on a few days and show a relation to changes in the level and the curvature of the term structure of interest rates. Therefore, pricing errors contain economic information about deviations of bond prices from general market conditions and are not exclusively caused by model misspecification and/or differences in liquidity and tax treatment of individual bonds.     

An analysis of eurobonds

We analyse different forms of debt mutualisation in a union of countries. One country suffers from a political distortion and may resort to (partial) debt default. We consider a debt repayment guarantee, which can be “unlimited” or ”limited”, i.e. only be invoked when the guarantee threshold is not exceeded. We also explore the ”blue–red” bonds proposal, under which blue debt is guaranteed, while red debt is not guaranteed. Only a suitably chosen limited guarantee induces the government to reduce debt and raises union welfare. This result is upheld under the time-consistent solution when there are costs to the rest of the union of not providing financial rescue. Making the guarantee also conditional on sufficient structural reform may in addition stimulate reform effort, thereby raising union welfare.     

Credit risk and bond pricing of local government in China

The relationship between credit risk and the pricing of local government bonds in China is explored in this paper. The pricing of local government bonds was found to reflect credit risk, but the risk premium was small. The type of bond (‘directional’ or ‘non-directional’) significantly affected pricing. Repayment source had no effect. The authors make recommendations for the central government, local governments and investors.     

Climate change implications for the catastrophe bonds market: An empirical analysis

Since their introduction in the mid-1990s, the return per unit of risk or multiple on catastrophe (cat) bonds has steadily declined. This paper investigates whether this pattern is consistent with the historical evolution of natural disaster risk, using average multiple figures over the period 1997–2017. Assessing the accuracy of cat bond pricing is important, since about 50% of outstanding risk capital in the cat bonds market is currently exposed to Atlantic hurricanes -a risk that global warming, among other disruptions, is found to enhance- and pension and mutual funds in European and other OECD countries currently own about 30% of the market. In this respect, while our findings suggest that falling multiples are primarily related to the Fed's expansionary monetary stance and to portfolio shift effects, we do also find evidence of significant undervaluation of global warming risk in the cat bonds market. This finding, also in light of the unfailing appetite of institutional investors for such securities, casts doubts over the sanity of the market and over cat bonds as suitable investment products for risk averse investors. Sounder investment opportunities might be found in the green bonds market, which allows for the funding of immediate investment in climate change mitigation too.     

PRICE‐ADMISSIBILITY CONDITIONS FOR ARBITRAGE‐FREE LINEAR PRICE FUNCTION MODELS FOR THE TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES

To assure price admissibility—that all bond prices, yields, and forward rates remain positive—we show how to control the state variables within the class of arbitrage‐free linear price function models for the evolution of interest rate yield curves over time. Price admissibility is necessary to preclude cash‐and‐carry arbitrage, a market imperfection that can happen even with a risk‐neutral diffusion process and positive bond prices. We assure price admissibility by (i) defining the state variables to be scaled partial sums of weighted coefficients of the exponential terms in the bond pricing function, (ii) identifying a simplex within which these state variables remain price admissible, and (iii) choosing a general functional form for the diffusion that selectively diminishes near the simplex boundary. By assuring that prices, yields, and forward rates remain positive with tractable diffusions for the physical and risk‐neutral measures, an obstacle is removed from the wider acceptance of interest rate methods that are linear in prices.     

浅谈初中生说明文写作教学

初中生语文综合能力以写作能力为最高,写作能力又以说明文写作为最难。现根据多年来初中语文教学经验,针对初中生说明文写作的教学技巧作简要论述。     

小学至初中阶段男女生学习成绩差异原因及其克服途径

小学至初中阶段，女生的学习成绩优于男生，这是客观存在的普遍现象，造成这一现象的原因是多方面的。正视这种差异对于我们今天中小学所进行的素质教育，具有重要的现实意义。     

New development: Are social impact bonds (SIBs) viable in Italy? A new roadmap

This paper presents a roadmap to support the development of social impact bonds (SIBs) in Italy. Current barriers and opportunities are explained. SIBs should be piloted in areas where the cultural, ideological, technical and governance barriers are low. Accurate measurement systems will be necessary and an effective governance structure needs to be agreed. With careful piloting and follow-up, the SIB model could be a solution to welfare and public service funding in Italy.     

公司债信用价差影响因素的实证研究

文章实证研究了33家公司债券条款、公司债券标的资产以及公司债发行时的宏观经济环境对公司债券信用价差的影响。研究结果表明:债券的期限、债券的信用评级和债券发行公司的长期负债能力与公司债券的信用价差呈负相关关系,债券的票面利率与公司债券的信用价差呈正相关关系,而债券发行公司的短期负债能力和发行时宏观经济环境对公司债券信用价差没有显著的影响。     

民初内债的举借及其后果

民初财政困难,北洋政府从舆论宣传、发行机构、管理制度、债信维持等方面着手,再加上一战爆发对经济的刺激,成功发行了民三、民四公债,开辟了公债发行的新纪元。但就其后果而言,恶化了财政基础、增加了人民负担、丧失了国家利权,影响所及又不仅仅是公债问题。