Measuring the liquidity impact on EMU government bond prices

Abstract

The work reported in this paper aimed to measure the impact of liquidity on European Monetary Union (EMU) government bond prices. Although there is a growing theoretical and empirical literature on liquidity effects in fixed income markets there is no clear answer to the questions how to measure liquidity and whether liquidity is priced in the market at all. The empirical analysis here is based on a unique data set containing individual bond data from six major EMU government bond markets, allowing one to compare yield curves estimated for subportfolios formed with respect to different potential liquidity measures. In a second procedure, liquidity measures are collected on the individual bond level and estimated pricing errors, given some reference yield curve, are regressed against these liquidity variables. This enables the conduction of formal tests on the pricing impact of liquidity measures. Results indicate that the benchmark property and the number of contributors are the most promising liquidity proxies having significant results in most countries. The results do not support the hypothesis that other liquidity measures under consideration, such as the on-the-run property, the issue size, and bid–ask spread related measures have a persistent price impact. A cross-country analysis of the subportfolio level indicates that liquidity effects cannot explain the size of the yield spreads between different issuers. This implies that effects other than liquidity, such as credit risk, are important driving factors of cross-country yield spreads.     

A comprehensive structural model for defaultable fixed-income bonds

An exact valuation formula for defaultable corporate coupon bonds is proved. The model incorporates discrete coupons, bankruptcy costs, taxes and the market risk generated by a stochastic risk-free structure. The aim of this paper is twofold: first, we generalise previous pricing models for corporate bonds; second, we provide a comprehensive formula in order to properly disentangle the contribution of several risk factors to credit spreads.     

Walking the contractual tightrope: a transaction cost economics perspective on social impact bonds

ABSTRACT

Transaction cost economics is applied in this paper to social impact bonds to explore how public service commissioners could improve outcomes-based contracts. The authors supply a framework for assessing the quality of outcomes specifications and clarify the trade-off between a robust value case for government and the transaction costs associated with specifying such a deal. Illustrated by two examples, the authors suggest that commissioners aim for a ‘requisite’ contract: one that minimizes opportunism while balancing the costs of developing a more robust outcomes specification.     

Rethinking the relationship between local government and financial markets

In the past 20 years local governments have increasingly looked to financial markets for capital financing. The markets want local governments to change their accounting systems and become more transparent, in order to offer information that is more appropriate to private sector investors. The authors argue that this approach is only a partial solution, and that local government and financial institutions would both benefit from changes in their relationships. The article identifies a double knowledge gap that needs to be filled if the public and private sectors want to work together as long-term financial partners.     

高等教育大众化背景下专科生就业现状若干问题及思考

中国目前的高等教育已经历史性地进入了国际公认的大众化的教育阶段，然而在高等教育大众化的同时，大学生就业难已经成为一个不争的事实。通过对皖西学院计算机系网络应用专业的毕业生的问拳调查，分析皖西学院专科毕业生专业对就业影响，对其就业心态、就业理念等存在的诸多问题进行了分析并提出相应的对策。     

Modelling multiple term structures of defaultable bonds with common and idiosyncratic state variables

In this paper we develop a multi-factor “reduced-form” model that is general enough to capture simultaneously the dynamics of multiple term structures of corporate bonds, each with a different credit rating. In this way, we are able to fully incorporate a number of “stylised facts”, reported on a number of previous empirical studies. More specifically, we are able to estimate the different degrees of covariation between the term structure of each credit rating and the default-free yield curve. Furthermore, we report the differing sensitivities of the credit curves to a number of observable macro-factors that reflect changes in credit conditions, both domestic and international. Finally, the dependence of each credit curve on a number of idiosyncratic state-variables is also documented. Our results are based on two special cases of the model, estimated using US and UK corporate bond data.     

“银边债券”：关于城市公债的理性思考与现实选择

长期以来，我国一直禁止地方政府发行公债，而国外地方政府发债融资弥补城市基础建设资金不足，是一种极为普遍的现象。本文对从我国建立城市公债制度的必要性和可能性的分析出发，提出了建立我国城市公债制度的基本思路。     

The principle of the conservation of business relationship energy: or many kinds of new beginnings

The relationship termination phase has received rather less attention in the literature than other aspects of relationship development. In this article we focus on the stage when the firms involved stop doing business with each other. We argue that relationship ending is problematic in that, even when trading stops, there still seems to exist a kind of “relationship energy” which continues on, especially in the social bonds that have been created. We propose a new principle of the “conservation of relationship energy” which states that it cannot be destroyed and that it can only be transformed and transferred to other relationships, manifesting itself in a variety of ways. “Relationship energy” provides opportunities for the same relationship to be reactivated at a later time, and helps or hinders the formation and continuation of other relationships as this energy travels with people to other organizations and contexts. The principle is illustrated using three case studies of relationships that have ended, drawn from the IMP2 database. The analysis provides new ways of analyzing the relationship termination phase as a more dynamic ongoing process and suggests new ways of evaluating relationship outcomes.     

公债适度规模评判指标的剖析及改进

用公债筹集资金、刺激经济是各国普遍采取的一种手段 ,而如何掌握公债适度规模 ,如何用好公债资金是当前的一个热门话题。本文通过对评判公债规模标准的比较分析 ,认为应从公债使用效益来看待公债适度规模 ,并提出应从改进预算编制、发行地方债券、规范公债市场运作机制等方面来提高公债的使用效益 ,以更好地发挥运用公债使用效益指标进行评判的作用     

Credit ETFs in Mutual Funds and Corporate Bond Liquidity

We show that high yield (HY) mutual funds own and trade ETFs to manage liquidity needs driven by fund flows, whereas investment grade (IG) funds do not. The use of ETFs by HY mutual funds to manage liquidity shifts some trading away from bonds and into ETFs, which reduces the liquidity of the underlying bonds. This substitution effect outweighs the better-understood inclusion effect, whereby bond liquidity benefits from increased ETF ownership, such that the net effect of ETFs is to reduce HY liquidity. In IG, the substitution effect is not significant and ETFs result in increased bond liquidity.