关于积极财政政策的若干认识

积极财政政策是反周期扩张性财政政策的中国式表述，代表性事项是政府举借长期建设国债筹资而用于投资、扩大内需，投资的重点体现了政府职能的优化调整和短期目标与中长期目标的结合衔接。我国这一扩张性政策在支持发展的同时，赤字控制在可接受范围内，其在过去五年内对国民经济的贡献应充分肯定，其成效将会发生长久影响。2003年这一政策继续实行，在实现反周期基本目标之后这一政策必然要淡出。     

The Optimal Redemption Schedule of Serial Municipal Debt: A Dynamic Reconciliation of Revenues,Reinvestment Rates and the Term Structure

The purpose of our research is to developan algorithm that optimally schedules municipaldebt redemptions. It is our hypothesis thatsegmented investor demand, the existing termstructure, the temporal behavior of municipalproject revenues and reinvestment opportunitiesfor interim revenue surpluses are all factorswhich should impact the optimal debt schedulingproblem in a unique and economically meaningfulway. For example, investor preference for shortermaturities and an upward sloping term structureof interest rates should, ceteris paribus,increase the proportion of debt scheduled to berepaid early in the redemption horizon. Ifinvestor demand is limited to a relatively smallgeographic area, such limited demand should bereflected in higher yields. If municipal projectrevenues increase over time then a largerproportion of the debt should be scheduled to beredeemed later. Unfortunately, realisticacknowledgements of the nature of the municipaldebt financing problem create an objectivefunction and a set of constraints which are fartoo complex to yield simple reduced formpresentations of the optimal principalredemptions. Consequently, solutions to theoptimal debt schedule and tests of theconjectures articulated above weresimulated.     

内地西藏初中班汉语口语交际能力培养的改进策略

内地西藏初中班学生在汉语口语交际能力上比较薄弱,针对这样的现状,提出了一些改进策略。     

Market reaction on convertible bonds offering： An agency cost of free cash flow perspective

By investigating ＂announcement effects＂ of 48 CBS and 439 pure equity offering in Chinese A-share listed companies, this paper finds that, in general, convertible bonds issue announcement may elicit a negative stock price response, firms with convertible bonds issue announcement experience significantly higher mean of abnormal returns than firms with equity issue announcement, and the fallen stock price is positively related to offering size, and negatively related to debt/asset ratio. Further, we find those firms with less undistributed cash flow and more growth opportunity experience significantly higher price response than firms with more undistributed cash flow and less growth opportunity. The empirical evidence consists with the predictions of the agency costs of free cash flow theory.     

The determinants of secondary market prices for developing country loans: the impact of country risk

With better-defined variables based on Euromoney country risk data as explanatory variables, the determinants of the prices of the debts of less-developed countries (LDCs) in the secondary market are estimated. With the use of cross-sectional data on 27 countries for the years 1992, 1993, and 1994, the regression results indicate that sovereign credit ratings constitute the most important variable influencing prices; other significant variables include the level of external indebtedness and the amount of debt in default. Separate results have been obtained for each of the two categories of countries grouped according to the level of economic development. These results are more meaningful than those of previous studies because the model includes, in addition to debt-servicing capacity, other variables that best explain the prices of LDCs' debt within the context of a risky debt instrument.     

DEFAULTABLE OPTIONS IN A MARKOVIAN INTENSITY MODEL OF CREDIT RISK

This paper is a follow‐up to “Valuation and Hedging of Defaultable Game Options in a Hazard Process Model” by the same authors. In the present paper we give user friendly assumptions ensuring that the general conditions in the previous paper are satisfied. We also give a systematic procedure to construct suitable intensity models of credit risk, and, in the Markovian case, we provide a variational inequality approach to the pre‐default pricing problem. We finally illustrate our results on a study of defaultable convertible bonds.     

台湾企业信息透明度与债券发行资金成本关系实证研究——蒙地卡罗模拟法之运用

本文探讨了企业信息透明度与债券资金成本间的关系。研究样本涵盖1996年至2001年间,共103家发行公司债的台湾上市公司,对其年报自愿性披露水平进行了分析。结果发现,企业发行公司债增额举债成本与其年报自愿性披露水平间呈显着负相关,显示信息的充分披露能获得较低的举债成本。而依市场风险高低所作的分组测试,则显示具有高市场风险的企业,披露水平与债券发行资金成本间关联性并未较低市场风险的企业密切,且高市场风险组的企业,年报中所披露的策略性信息,与债券发行资金成本间的关系并未达显着水平,此也反映出投资人评估企业信息披露是"质"、"量"并重的。     

有控制权利益的企业融资工具选择 --可转换债券融资的理论思考

本文扩展Stein( 1 992 )的模型,从控股股东角度出发考察在有控制权利益的情形下,企业对不同融资工具的选择,包括发行普通债券、可转换债券以及股票三种融资形式。控制权利益的存在使得“好”企业有内在动力发行可转换债券,Stein模型中无成本的分离均衡将不是唯一的。企业发行可转换债券是市场上各类企业的控股股东和外部投资者相互博弈的结果,而控股股东追求控制权利益的行为会给市场带来更多的不确定因素,增加了企业融资的代理成本,加剧了市场波动和投机行为,对此有必要加以控制     

美国两房优先级机构债券的价值

房利美和房地美现已处于经济衰退、流动性陷阱、技术性破产和利差收窄的困境,其偿还美国财政部购买的MBS尚有风险,偿还优先次序还排在MBS之后的优先级机构债券的价值实际已经趋于零。     

Requiem for a Market Maker: The Case of Drexel Burnham Lambert and Junk Bonds

This article adds to both the financial intermediation and market microstructure literature by examining the market reactions surrounding the withdrawal of a major financial intermediary and market maker from a specific securities market. We examine the exit of Drexel Burnham Lambert (Drexel) from the junk bond market in 1990. At the time Drexel exited the market by declaring bankruptcy, it was the dominant market maker and underwriter of junk bonds. We examine the impact of Drexel's failure on direct and indirect holders of junk bonds by investigating the effect of Drexel's collapse on junk bond returns, and on the stock returns of a group of firms that, on average, held significant amounts of junk bonds. We find that the collapse of Drexel had a significant impact on junk bond prices in general, and a greater impact on the prices of lower-quality junk bonds in particular. We interpret this result to imply that the value of the liquidity services supplied by Drexel was higher for lower-quality junk bonds. Additionally, we find that junk bonds underwritten by Drexel, as opposed to other investment banks, experienced a significant decline in price over the months leading up to Drexel's failure announcement. This suggests that the monitoring services provided by Drexel for the bonds it underwrote would not be replaced easily by other financial intermediaries operating in the junk bond market. Our results also indicate that the stock returns of life insurance companies with relatively high junk bond exposure tended to be affected more negatively by Drexel's financial distress than the stock returns of life insurance companies with relatively low junk bond exposure.