对中国可转换公司债券发展路径的评析

中国可转换公司债券的发展经历了探索期、试点期和发展期三个阶段，各阶段具有各自的经验教训。当前利用可转债融资在企业特性、行业选择和发行时机方面存在误区，基于经济理性假设，不同类别的企业以及企业发展的不同阶段，应根据自身的发展战略、市场状况以及融资成本来选择是否采用可转债融资。     

波兰市政债券的发展及其对我国的启示

波兰作为一个转型经济国家，其发展过程中表现出的特点对于中国具有参考意义。在市政债券方面，它比我国早发展。考察波兰市政债券市场的建立与发展将对于我国市政债券市场的形成具有一定价值波兰的市政债券市场是在非常有限的条件下发展起来的，而比较来看，我国更具优越性，而且现实也需要我们建立市政债券市场。因此，我国应在借鉴世界其他国家发展市政债券市场的经验教训的基础上，有步骤地有选择的发展市政债券市场。     

New Measures for Inflation Uncertainty and Disagreement from Treasury Auctions: Alternative to Surveys

In this article, we propose a novel methodology to construct new uncertainty and disagreement measures for the long-term inflation rate with the use of micro data of Treasury auctions. We employ individual bids submitted in Treasury auctions for nominal and inflation indexed bonds. We argue that these newly formed indicators do not have the problems associated with the survey and market-based uncertainty and disagreement measures. We also focus on the interactions of our proposed measures for inflation rate by comparing the measures commonly used in the literature. The findings of this article are believed to enhance the effectiveness of policy-making by introducing new proxies for crucial economic variables and also by providing the opportunity for other emerging economies with inadequate surveys to construct historical uncertainty and disagreement measures for inflation rates.     

企业债券市场波动性研究—基于ARMA-GARCH模型的实证分析

基于交易所企债指数,利用ARMA-GARCH模型分析市场波动性。结果表明ARMA（1,1）-GARCH（1,1）模型可以合理解释企业债券市场波动存在的持续性、丛集性和杠杆效应。场外冲击对条件方差的影响具有持久性,反向冲击比等量的正向冲击会导致更高的下一期的条件方差。EGARCH（1,1）-M模型回归结果表明,市场存在正的风险溢价,但是预期条件波动对预期收益仅有微弱补偿。     

企业债券市场波动性研究——基于ARMA-GARCH模型的实证分析

基于交易所企债指数,利用ARMA-GARCH模型分析市场波动性。结果表明ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1)模型可以合理解释企业债券市场波动存在的持续性、丛集性和杠杆效应。场外冲击对条件方差的影响具有持久性,反向冲击比等量的正向冲击会导致更高的下一期的条件方差。EGARCH(1,1)-M模型回归结果表明,市场存在正的风险溢价,但是预期条件波动对预期收益仅有微弱补偿。     

When Does Relational Exchange Matters? Social Bond,Trust and Satisfaction

Purpose: The extant literature on business-to-business relationship has shown that trust, relationship duration, and social bond are the key drivers of relationship satisfaction. Notwithstanding, studies on the examination of when and why these variables translate into successful relationship are still scarce and need further exploration. This research investigates the conditions under which trust and social bonds influence satisfaction in a business-to-business relationship.

Design/methodology/approach: The data were collected from 159 footwear producers using a structured questionnaire. Four hypotheses were developed and tested using hierarchical multiple regression.

Findings: The authors found support for all hypotheses. Social bonds and longevity are crucial in enhancing supplier relationship satisfaction. Likewise, the role of social bonds in inducing supplier satisfaction heightens over time. However, the positive association between exchange partner trustworthiness and supplier satisfaction works well only in high degree of dependence situation.

Research limitations/implications: The study was based on the report on monadic data and cross-sectional design. Future research should adopt longitudinal design to overcome the shortcomings.

Theoretical implications: This study advances the social exchange theory (SET) by elucidating the condition in which social bonds and trust fail to produce relationship satisfaction. Social bonds fail to enhance relationship satisfaction at the beginning of the relationship. Moreover, trust alone cannot be good enough to boost relationship satisfaction in a lose dependence context.

Managerial implications: This study acclaimed a relationship-driven approach as the best choice for those firms who aspire to build a good relationship with their exchange partner. Managers should understand how and when to develop a strong social relationship with their trading partners, and recognize the situations in which to deal with honest and fair business partners in an exchange relationship.

Originality/Contribution: This is one of the very few studies, which have been conducted to investigate the conditions under which the relational variable influences satisfaction in a business-to-business relationships context. It expanded the boundary of the current literature as it investigated the moderating role of relationship duration and dependence in the relationship between relational constructs and relationship satisfaction.     

Black's Model of Interest Rates as Options, Eigenfunction Expansions and Japanese Interest Rates

Black's (1995) model of interest rates as options assumes that there is a shadow instantaneous interest rate that can become negative, while the nominal instantaneous interest rate is a positive part of the shadow rate due to the option to convert to currency. As a result of this currency option, all term rates are strictly positive. A similar model was independently discussed by Rogers (1995) . When the shadow rate is modeled as a diffusion, we interpret the zero-coupon bond as a Laplace transform of the area functional of the underlying shadow rate diffusion (evaluated at the unit value of the transform parameter). Using the method of eigenfunction expansions, we derive analytical solutions for zero-coupon bonds and bond options under the Vasicek and shifted CIR processes for the shadow rate. This class of models can be used to model low interest rate regimes. As an illustration, we calibrate the model with the Vasicek shadow rate to the Japanese Government Bond data and show that the model provides an excellent fit to the Japanese term structure. The current implied value of the instantaneous shadow rate in Japan is negative.     

民营企业与中国企业债券市场的发展

文中认为,我国企业债券市场发展落后于股票市场的主要原因在于对发行主体局限于国有企业,发展企业债券券市场的关键在于打破企业经济性质,按照市场条件进行审批,其中特别指出民营企业在目前已具备做为债券发行主体的市场条件,并为完善企业债券市场提出了一些建议。     

公司债券的违约风险度量技术及应用

随着我国资本市场的进一步发展,公司债券已经成为我国资本市场重要的金融工具。因此,公司债券的违约风险已经成为投资者关注的重要因素。本文系统地论述了度量公司债券违约风险的三类主要方法：信用评级法、数理模型法和保险思想法。在此基础上,论述了我国发展债券市场提高公司债券违约风险度量技术的基本思路是重点利用信用评级方法,积极开发数理模型方法,创造条件利用保险思想模型。     

对发展我国上市可转换债券的经验分析

该文回顾了我国可转债的发展历程,划分了可转债发展的三个阶段：探索阶段、试点阶段和发展阶段,通过案例分析总结了可转债在探索阶段和试点阶段的经验和教训;从而为可转债发行条件、发行条款的设计等提出了相应的政策建议。