我国固定资产投资对经济增长影响的实证分析

我国处于发展中国家行列这一阶段特征决定着投资在很大程度上推动着经济的持续发展,文章主要分析全社会固定资产投资对GDP增长的促进作用,通过1993—2012年固定资产投资增长和国内生产总值增长的数据进行计量分析得出结论：固定资产投资增长对GDP增长有显著促进作用;随着经济体制改革的深入与政府职能的转变,减缓固定资产投资增长速度和优化投资结构以进一步提高投资效益已刻不容缓。     

Who benefits most? The effects of managerial assistance on high- versus low-performing small businesses

This study investigates the relationship between outside managerial assistance and small business performance using a conditional quantile regression approach. The model was tested using a sample of 902 ventures that received managerial or technical assistance from the U.S. Small Business Administration's Entrepreneurial Development Resource Partners. Results show that outside assistance for primary business functions, such as marketing strategy, promotional strategy, financial management and general management, is more effective for firms with lower levels of financial performance. Outside assistance for secondary business functions, such as human resources and obtaining capital, is likely to have a greater impact on firms in the middle- to upper-quantile levels. Based on the results, we propose that managerial outside assistance providers should employ different approaches for firms with lower versus higher levels of financial performance.     

Second-order Bayesian revision of a generalised linear model

It is well known that the exponential dispersion family (EDF) of univariate distributions is closed under Bayesian revision in the presence of natural conjugate priors. However, this is not the case for the general multivariate EDF. This paper derives a second-order approximation to the posterior likelihood of a naturally conjugated generalised linear model (GLM), i.e., multivariate EDF subject to a link function (Section 5.5). It is not the same as a normal approximation. It does, however, lead to second-order Bayes estimators of parameters of the posterior. The family of second-order approximations is found to be closed under Bayesian revision. This generates a recursion for repeated Bayesian revision of the GLM with the acquisition of additional data. The recursion simplifies greatly for a canonical link. The resulting structure is easily extended to a filter for estimation of the parameters of a dynamic generalised linear model (DGLM) (Section 6.2). The Kalman filter emerges as a special case. A second type of link function, related to the canonical link, and with similar properties, is identified. This is called here the companion canonical link. For a given GLM with canonical link, the companion to that link generates a companion GLM (Section 4). The recursive form of the Bayesian revision of this GLM is also obtained (Section 5.5.3). There is a perfect parallel between the development of the GLM recursion and its companion. A dictionary for translation between the two is given so that one is readily derived from the other (Table 5.1). The companion canonical link also generates a companion DGLM. A filter for this is obtained (Section 6.3). Section 1.2 provides an indication of how the theory developed here might be applied to loss reserving. A sequel paper, providing numerical illustrations of this, is planned.     

Representation of concave distortions and applications

ABSTRACT

A family of concave distortion functions is a set of concave and increasing functions, mapping the unity interval onto itself. Distortion functions play an important role defining coherent risk measures. We prove that any family of distortion functions which fulfils a certain translation equation, can be represented by a distribution function. An application can be found in actuarial science: moment-based premium principles are easy to understand but in general are not monotone and cannot be used to compare the riskiness of different insurance contracts with each other. Our representation theorem makes it possible to compare two insurance risks with each other consistent with a moment-based premium principle by defining an appropriate coherent risk measure.     

ASSESSING THE RELATIVE PERFORMANCE OF UNIVERSITY TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER IN THE US AND UK: A STOCHASTIC DISTANCE FUNCTION APPROACH

University technology transfer offices (henceforth, TTOs) play a critical role in the diffusion of innovation and the development of new technology infrastructure. Studies of the relative efficiency of TTOs have been based on licensing output measures and data from a single country. In contrast, we present the first cross-country comparison of the relative performance of TTOs, based on stochastic multiple output distance functions. The additional dimension of output considered is the university's propensity to generate start-up companies, based on technologies developed at these institutions. We find that US universities are more efficient than UK universities and that the production process is characterized by either decreasing or constant returns to scale. Universities with a medical school and an incubator are closer to the frontier.     

Hedging effectiveness of the Athens stock index futures contracts

This paper examines the hedging effectiveness of the FTSE/ATHEX-20 and FTSE/ATHEX Mid-40 stock index futures contracts in the relatively new and fairly unresearched futures market of Greece. Both in-sample and out-of-sample hedging performances using weekly and daily data are examined, considering both constant and time-varying hedge ratios. Results indicate that time-varying hedging strategies provide incremental risk-reduction benefits in-sample, but under-perform simple constant hedging strategies out-of-sample. Moreover, futures contracts serve effectively their risk management role and compare favourably with results in other international stock index futures markets. Estimation of investor utility functions and corresponding optimal utility maximising hedge ratios yields similar results, in terms of model selection. For the FTSE/ATHEX Mid-40 contracts we identify the existence of speculative components, which lead to utility-maximising hedge ratios, that are different to the minimum variance hedge ratio solutions.     

Driven by distraction: investigating the effects of anxiety on driving performance using the Attentional Control Theory

This study investigates the effects of trait anxiety on self-reported driving behaviours through its negative impacts on Central Executive functions. Following a self-report study that found trait anxiety to be significantly related to driving behaviours, the present study extended the predictions of Eysenck and Calvo’s Attentional Control Theory, proposing that anxiety affects driving behaviours, in particular driving lapses, through its impact across the Central Executive. Seventy-five Australian drivers participated in the study, completing the Parametric Go/No-Go and n-back tasks, as well as the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory and the Driving Behaviour Questionnaire. While both trait anxiety and processing efficiency of the Central Executive was found to significantly predict driving lapses, trait anxiety remained a strong predictor of driving lapses after processing efficiency was controlled for. It is concluded that while processing efficiency of the central Executive is a key determinant of driving lapses, another Central Executive function that is closer to the driving lapses in the trait anxiety – driving lapses relationship may be needed. Suggestions regarding how to improve future trait anxiety – driving behaviours research are discussed.     

Organising IMC roles and functions in the business‐to‐business network environment

As products and distribution channels become more homogenised, and competing on the basis of price more difficult, integrated marketing communications (IMC) has been identified as the ‘new frontier’ for effective differentiation. Research identifying roles and functions of IMC has primarily been focused on firms operating in the final consumer market. This research seeks to extend our understanding of the role and functions of IMC in business‐to‐business markets, with specific reference to an industry network. In order to achieve this, this paper explores the roles and functions (i.e. the associated organisation of IMC activities) adopted by the Tasmanian Light Shipbuilding Network (TLSN). In total, this research found evidence of three distinct roles (IMC Champion, Government Lobbyist, and Network Ambassador) that together served to implement the IMC functions of gathering, analysing and disseminating key marketing information throughout the network of firms. This research also presents an IMC framework that represents the manner in which the various network members coordinated the various IMC roles and functions.     

企业商业秘密保护中的薄弱环节和防范措施

我国企业在商业秘密保护中的薄弱环节有 :忽视对企业中、高级经营管理人员的保密防范 ;忽视对当地政府、经济主管部门、金融机构、中介机构、合作伙伴的保密防范 ;忽视企业对外宣传和技术管理人员向公开刊物投稿时的保密防范 ;忽视对跳槽和下岗分流人员的保密防范。必须从这些方面采取相应的对策措施。     

美军情报侦察数据链的发展

情报侦察数据链是继态势感知数据链以后，蓬勃发展的一种新型数据链装备，是一种装备量大、又急需实现标准化、模块化、通用化的一种新型信息化装备。本文以美军典型的CDL（通用数据链）数据链发展为主线，重点从整体上、从项层上概括描述美军情报侦察数据链的装备体系，以对美军情报侦察数．据链系统的发展有一全面的了解，在此基础上，分析其发展现状、发展趋势以及铪我们带来的启示。