Illiquidity Premium in the MILA

This article analyzes the illiquidity premium in the MILA. Using seven proxies for illiquidity, we find a positive and significant illiquidity premium for our sample. A microstructure bias-free portfolio weighting based on past returns is critical in our finding of an illiquidity premium, which is robust to several methodological changes in our portfolio simulations. We also document that the premium is present only in small and high book-to-market stocks. Nonetheless, when we control for size and distress effects, the difference and significance in risk-adjusted returns between portfolios of high and low illiquidity stocks remains.     

Flight to liquidity and the Great Recession

This paper argues that counter-cyclical liquidity hoarding by financial intermediaries may strongly amplify business cycles. It develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which banks operate subject to agency problems and funding liquidity risk in their intermediation activity. Importantly, the amount of liquidity reserves held in the financial sector is determined endogenously: Balance sheet constraints force banks to trade off insurance against funding outflows with loan scale. A financial crisis, simulated as an abrupt decline in the collateral value of bank assets, triggers a flight to liquidity, which strongly amplifies the initial shock and induces credit crunch dynamics sharing key features with the Great Recession. The paper thus develops a new balance sheet channel of shock transmission that works through the composition of banks’ asset portfolios.     

Commodity prices and BRIC and G3 liquidity: A SFAVEC approach

This paper investigates the influence of liquidity in the major developed and major developing economies on commodity prices. Liquidity is taken to be M2. A novel finding is that unanticipated increases in the BRIC countries’ liquidity is associated with significant and persistent increases in commodity prices that are much larger than the effect of unanticipated increases in G3 liquidity, and the difference increases over time. Over 1999–2012 BRIC liquidity is strongly linked with global energy prices and global real activity whereas G3 liquidity is not. The impact of BRIC liquidity on mineral and metal prices is twice as large as that of G3 liquidity. Granger casualty goes from liquidity to commodity prices. BRIC and G3 liquidity and commodity prices are cointegrated. BRIC and G3 liquidity and global output and global prices are cointegrated. We construct a structural factor-augmented error correction (SFAVEC) model.     

Stock liquidity and managerial short-termism

We examine whether stock liquidity exacerbates or mitigates managerial short-termism. Utilizing earnings management as a proxy for managerial short-termism, we establish three major findings. First, firms with liquid stocks engage in less accrual-based and real earnings management. Second, the effect of stock liquidity on earnings management is amplified for firms with high levels of managerial pay-for-performance sensitivity. Third, the positive association between the intensity of earnings management and firm cost of capital is evident only for firms with low stock liquidity. Our findings are consistent with the threat of blockholder exit as the main governance channel through which stock liquidity discourages opportunistic earnings management and mitigates managerial short-termism.     

流动性过剩与股票价格重估

在固定汇率与资本管制框架下,剩余储蓄的持续增加必然导致流动性过剩,对股票市场而言,只有当实体经济持续的剩余储蓄增加引起流动性过剩时,才会推动股票市场估值中枢的剧烈抬升.对近期经济指标的分析表明,股票市场重估将会持续下去,而货币政策紧缩引起的投资下降会进一步扩大剩余储蓄,加快重估的进程.     

基于复合实物期权的公司流动性定价研究

公司流动性是指公司或企业持有的流动性资产,它除了账面价值外,还含有某种潜在价值。对公司流动性价值进行科学的评估,对于投资者、公司管理者等各方都非常重要。采用实物期权理论对公司流动性进行定价。是目前公司金融理论的前沿课题。这方面的研究不但可以打开对公司流动性认知的新视野,还可以促使我们通过了解公司持有的流动性所蕴含的价值,进而对整个公司价值进行真正正确的评估。本文首次揭示了公司流动性的复合实物期权性质,并用复合实物期权二叉树模型进行了公司流动性定价的尝试,为公司财务管理决策提供了一种量化的工具。通过使用复合实物期权模型,我们得到了公司流动性复合期权的价值,这个价值不但大于流动性持有的机会成本和其最初时刻的静态价值,同样也比常用的NPV法算出的项目价值大。多出来的价值就是考虑了流动性复合期权的结果。     

2010-2011年中国宏观经济报告——流动性回收与新规划效应下的中国宏观经济

2010年中国宏观经济步入了"高位回稳"、"经济常态化"、"价格偏高"、"结构良性化"的运行轨道。2011年中国宏观经济一方面延续了2010年经济运行的逻辑,另一方面将出现货币政策的全面转向、外部环境的变异以及"十二五"规划的全面启动等新因素,这决定了2011年中国宏观经济将呈现"复杂但却平稳"的态势。本文利用模型对于相关宏观经济指标进行了预测,并提出了相应的政策建议。     

对银行的流动性风险管理问题的思考

一直以来,流动性风险被称为银行最致命的风险,在银行的经营管理中流动性风险管理更是占有极其重要的地位。可目前银行的流动性风险管理的现状实在令人担忧,因此,如何有效地管理流动性风险就成为当前银行风险管理的核心内容。本文从流动性风险入手,着重阐述了当前银行的流动性风险管理现状,并提出一些应对策略,力图提高银行抵御流动性风险的能力,以供参考。     

基于双重流动性风险控制的资产组合优化研究

银行危机的实质在于银行资产配置失误而导致的流动性不足,因而在银行资产配置中使得资产保持充分的流动性,对银行的发展至关重要。本文以上一期的负债与资产余额同下一期负债累加作为下一期的总分配资金,使得资产与负债在时间上匹配,通过商业银行法和中央银行对商业银行的监管条例约束,保证银行资产配给的合法性与合规性,控制了银行经营中的流动性风险,保障银行的支付能力。     

商业银行主动负债发展的经济效应

主动负债发展会带来商业银行间融资增加,通过分别设立模型研究商业银行间净融资规模增加和不同期限互相融资规模增加两种情况后,可以得出主动负债发展的微观经济效应:(1)净融资规模增加后银行流动性改善,资金投放规模增加;融资环境改善后商业银行备付金率可降低,流动性进一步提高.(2)商业银行彼此融资后,在不同期限资金投放业务上成本不同的银行会发挥各自相对优势,实现差异化经营,促使银行总收益增加.在上述微观分析基础上,通过对我国金融环境的具体分析,可以得出主动负债发展能推动我国利率市场化、发展金融市场、促进货币创造等宏观经济效应.