Exchange traded funds: leverage and liquidity

This paper examines the differences between leveraged and unleveraged Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), particularly for liquidity and volatility characteristics. The impact of leverage on intraday liquidity (spread and depth) is analysed in two periods – one of normal volatility and the other of abnormal/high volatility. There is a significant difference in spread and depth of leveraged and unleveraged ETFs in periods of both normal volatility and high volatility; however, this difference is more pronounced in higher volatility periods. In high volatility periods, liquidity typically diminishes in all ETFs, and this is even more so for the leveraged ETFs. When leveraged ETFs are segregated into multiples based on their power to replicate the underlying benchmark (i.e. multiples of ?3, ?2, ?1, 2, 3), the difference in spreads between normal and high volatility periods is typically larger. The double-leveraged ETF has the most significant difference between the positive and negative counter parts. However, the relationship in the progression of the multiples does not change linearly to correspond with the level of volatility. This may be due to the nonlinear relation between volume and volatility. We shed light on the magnification effect of financial leverage on microstructure of the ETFs.     

Water as an investment: liquid yet illiquid!

The water industry is in great need of further large investments to address existing severe water shortages worldwide which requires the participation of private sector investors. This industry is heavily infrastructure based and is therefore saddled with fixed assets-in-place or illiquid assets. This exposes the industry to what is termed as ‘illiquidity risk’, and hence, investors in this industry should be compensated for bearing this risk with an appropriate return premium (i.e. extra return). In this study, we provide evidence as to whether illiquidity risk indeed significantly affects returns in this industry. We examine the case of all 76 firms that compose the five major global water indices. After controlling for other factors that impact on returns, our results suggest that asset illiquidity is positively associated with stock returns. Specifically, water firms with a larger proportion of illiquid assets-in-place are observed to have greater stock returns than those with a smaller proportion of illiquid assets. Our results have important implications for the financing of water-related projects particularly those which involve the participation of investors from the private sector.     

Does the liquidity effect guarantee a positive term premium?

This paper examines the liquidity effect and the term structure in two versions of the limited participation model—an imperfect information model and an adjustment cost model. With a discrete-state solution approach, I find a striking contrast: while the imperfect information model successfully generates the liquidity effect and the positive term premium seen in the data; the adjustment cost model replicates only the liquidity effect. This is because the adjustment cost that drives the liquidity effect in the adjustment cost model also creates an adjustment cost effect, which leads to a negative term premium.     

中国证券市场各类风险对资本成本的影响研究

以2007-2010年我国A股上市公司为样本,用Hanlon改进的剩余收益增长率方法度量资本成本,并在此基础上从微观结构视角分析证券市场中最主要的系统波动性风险、特质波动性风险、流动性风险和信息风险对资本成本的影响。结果发现,随着系统波动性风险、流动性风险以及信息风险这三类传统意义上的系统性风险增大,资本成本也增大;通过投资组合部分分散的特质波动风险则与资本成本的关系不明确。     

中国通货膨胀的内外因素与传导机制及解决方案分析

引致中国通货膨胀发生的国际因素主要有全球流动性过剩、世界主要经济体通胀、国际粮食供求矛盾加剧等,这些因素通过国际贸易、外来投资、汇率制度等介质传导到中国,并与中国多年来内部存在的过度投资、基础货币被动投放过度、全民炒股一夜暴富、雪灾与春节的并至等因素相撞击叠加,从而激活了国内潜在的物价上涨压力,引起物价连续上涨。应当完善经济结构、改变经济增长方式、人民币缓慢升值、慎用加息、阻止热钱流入。控制中国物价持续上扬。     

公司规模与股票流动性关系研究——上海股市的经验证据

本文以上海股票市场中的股票为研究对象,通过实证研究发现,上市公司规模与其股票流动性之间存在着显著的正相关关系并对此作出相应解释;"流动性补偿"理论可以用来解释中国股市中的"规模效应"。同时,本文还对小规模上市公司股票高换手率与低流动性并存的现象进行合理解释。