The role of uncertainty in the euro crisis – an application of liquidity preference theory

The world financial crisis triggered a rediscovery of the active role fiscal policy can play as a remedy in such situations. During the euro crisis, escalating funding costs in a number of southern eurozone member states and Ireland have called this strategy into question. One interpretation of the euro crisis concentrated on the public debt trends in those countries. Opposing this view, the main point of this contribution is to elaborate the link between rising interest rates on sovereign bonds in the euro crisis and a major feature of the financial crisis – a subdued degree of investor confidence after the Lehman collapse. Theoretically, this link is developed with reference to Keynes’ liquidity preference theory. The high explanatory power of measures for the degree of confidence in financial markets as well as detrimental effects of fiscal austerity on the evolution of sovereign yield spreads are demonstrated empirically by means of panel regressions and supplementary correlation analyses.     

Millennium Development Goal shortfalls in Zimbabwe: Analysing the impact of access to water and sanitation on early childhood morbidity

ABSTRACT

An Africana feminist framework is presented that considers the ways in which inequality resulting from a historical legacy of political conflict and other dimensions intersect to impact upon the accomplishment of Millennium Development Goals with regards to environmental sustainability and child malnutrition in Zimbabwe. Demographic and Health Surveys are analysed from 1988 to 2011 to examine whether differential access to water and sanitation is predicted by ethnic differences in Zimbabwe, and is predictive of chronic malnutrition. Safe water and sanitation are in short supply, and logistic regression analyses provide evidence that residents in Shona and Ndebele-dominated provinces generally have better access to these resources. Uneven distribution of these development resources has a deleterious impact on early childhood nutrition. This work elicits results that give rise to child health-related policy recommendations that may inform post-2015 discussions of Sustainable Development Goals, namely that within-country ethnic differences must be taken into account.     

中国工业水污染的理论研究与实证检验

随着我国经济社会的发展及工业化水平的提高,大量的工业废水未经处理直接排入河流,这对水资源造成严重的污染,而征税、管制或者排污权交易等治理污染手段没能够有效遏制我国水质继续恶化的趋势。通过剖析我国工业水污染产生的内在原因,提出我国工业水污染是地方政府、企业和公众在政治市场上博弈的结果假说。采用1997年—2008年我国30个省市的动态面板数据,利用广义矩(GMM)方法对政府-企业-公众的博弈模型进行环境污染实证检验,得出地方政府与企业的合谋是导致工业水污染的重要因素的结论。     

Productivity,innovation strategies and industrial relations in SMEs. Empirical evidence for a local production system in northern Italy

The paper aims to provide an original contribution to evaluating several kinds of relations between four areas of innovation activities – training, technology, organization, ICT (information and communication technologies) – and industrial relations and firm’s economic performance. Quantitative evidence for a SME‐based local production system is provided by exploiting two datasets: the first is derived from a direct survey carried out in 2005 collecting data on innovations, labour flexibility and industrial relations; the second is represented by a panel of official balance sheets data for the period 1998–2004. The analysis is divided in two consequential parts. We first examine the drivers of different innovation strategies and subsequently we exploit innovation indicators as potential drivers of firm’s productivity. The results show that training activities and organizational changes have strong links with many industrial relations indicators, thus emerging as industrial relations driven innovations. On the contrary, ICT and technological innovation seem to be more influenced by firms’ past performances than by industrial relations. The analysis on labour productivity drivers shows that training activities are the most relevant factors; then, ranked consequently, technological innovation, organisational innovations and, finally, ICT also appear to impact on productivity levels. It is worth noting that the role of ICT emerges more robustly when endogeneity is specifically addressed. Finally, the role of firm size seems here to be overshadowed by other drivers.     

对土地财政与地方经济增长相关性的探讨

近些年来,之所以演化出土地财政这一具有非褒义的概念,是因为有着深刻的社会背景。这不仅有财政体制上的原因,也有城市自身扩张与政府官员政绩考核的原因。目前,土地财政在推动地方经济增长的过程中发挥了重要作用。实证分析表明,GDP虽不是土地性财政收入的Granger因,而GDP却是土地性财政收入的Granger果。地方经济增长过度依赖于土地财政,不仅会造成严重的不良后果,如威胁我国粮食安全、不利于和谐社会建设、加剧购房居民的负担等,而且也会扩大政府的寻租空间。为此,地方政府必须寻求摆脱经济增长对于土地财政依赖的路径选择,要转变经济增长观念、推进财政体制改革、充分发挥土地流转机制的作用、不断完善土地法规的相关内容等。     

财政收入、财政支出与居民消费率

从财政政策收入分配功能的角度就财政收支对居民消费率的影响进行了理论分析,并采用全国数据和省级面板数据就财政收支对居民消费率的影响进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,我国过高的税负率对我国居民消费率的提高有负面影响,以间接税为主的财政收入结构不能实现社会财富再分配的均等化,不利于促进我国居民消费率的提高。财政消费性支出对居民消费具有挤出效应,而保障性支出有助于提高居民消费率。因此改变财政收支结构,强化财政收支的收入再分配功能是提高居民消费率的关键。     

地区性行政垄断的经济增长效应

地区性行政垄断是指地方政府运用行政权力对市场竞争的限制和排斥,往往造成了要素价格扭曲,进而诱致地方保护和市场分割。本文基于一个经济增长模型,并将地区性行政垄断指数纳入该模型中,实证研究了地区性行政垄断对经济增长的影响以及这种影响在开放程度不同的地方会发生什么样的变化。结果表明,地区性行政垄断与经济增长呈倒U型关系,而且经济开放程度越高,地区性行政垄断越不利于经济增长。     

税收、政府支出与消费变动的关系——基于省际面板数据的实证分析

基于霍尔不确定条件下的消费理论,建立了一个分析消费决策的模型,并利用我国1992-2008年的省际面板数据进行实证分析。结果显示,减税与扩大政府支出都对消费有正向影响;投资收益的增加则会减少消费。在经济衰退时,减税和增加财政支出是提高消费、扩大内需的有效手段。在当前经济脆弱时期,采取积极的财政政策,扩大在民生领域的财政支出,是带动当前经济增长和奠定未来发展基础的最佳政策选择。     

我国地方政府债务风险及其预警:问题及对策

我国地方政府财政风险有其特殊的历史背景和生成机理,而且有关预警信息取得困难,财政危机的表现模糊,这些问题给有效预警带来困难。不仅如此,现有的预警研究在预警理论和预警方法上也存在诸多问题,本文试图根据我国地方政府财政风险的特殊性以及现有预警存在的问题,提出相应的预警对策。     

旅游主客交往对社区居民影响的分析模型——以周庄为例

对旅游地社区居民进行分层,分析了各个阶层对主客交往的态度,构建了旅游主客交往对社区居民影响的分析模型。通过对周庄的实证研究,认为交际屏障、刺激屏障在旅游主客交往中较易突破,但是交往很难突破文化屏障和融合屏障;主客交往更容易对当地居民经济行为和人际关系产生影响,对价值观念、社会变迁的影响程度相对较低;周庄的旅游主客关系整体上处在＂融洽＂阶段,但是主客关系存在一些不确定因素,要求周庄旅游决策者将更多注意力放在主客关系的调控上。