财政支农研究一个文献综述

文中利用现有的中外财政支农文献,梳理出了财政支农原因、规模、结构和绩效的研究成果。总结了前人研究的两个共同点,同时也指出未来研究的两个方向。     

Sustainable Ecotourism in Amazonia: Evaluation of Six Sites in Southeastern Peru

It is widely assumed that ecotourism offers sustainable development opportunities in under‐developed countries, but little is known about the variables contributing to differential sustainability of multiple ecotourism ventures within a geographic region. This investigation compared differences among rainforest ecotourism sites in Tambopata, Amazonian Peru. These rainforest lodges act as stewards of the surrounding habitat. Different histories and philosophies regarding tourism resulted in varied levels of economic, social and ecological sustainability. This study quantitatively examines the differential sustainability of multiple ecotourism sites in a small geographic region. Tourism in Tambopata has a potential for sustainability of local communities and natural resources. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

如何培育高质量地方税源——以广东省为例

税收取决于经济,脱离了经济,税收就是无源之水无本之木。因此,税收的关键在于税源。培育高质量地方税源就是要发展地方经济,挖掘出新的经济增长点,增加地方收入的来源,增强地方经济发展的动力。本文通过探讨培育高质量广东地方税源,以建立地方税收收入良性增长的机制,最终达到走出经济萧条,促进地方经济发展的目的。     

发散思维的神经认知模型及其本土化运用探索

研究验证了Brandoni和Anderson设计的发散思维神经认知评估模型的理论基础、应用意义及在中国本土施行的可能性。模型产生于神经认知科学领域的理论与研究发现,具有跨领域研究、应用的意义。在对模型本土运用进行验证时,选取了30名上海本地中学平行班七年级学生为样本,最终得到10个编码值（D、C、D、C、H、s、NS、CU、DS、R）得分,通过计算其变异系数并呈现各类剐上的四分区间频数分布,得出结论：模型在评估本土样本发散思维上同样能够敏感地捕捉到个体差异。     

Political corruption shielding and corporate acquisitions

Corruption includes rent‐seeking behavior by public officials (e.g., lavish in‐kind benefits and monetary kickbacks for contracts/permits/regulatory leniency, improper political contributions/support, etc.) that can negatively affect firm valuations, performances, and strategic choices. Shielding strategies are used to diminish rent‐seeking attractiveness of firms. Acquisitions provide a better channel than cash or leverage for assessing the wealth effects of shielding strategies. We find that the mean 3‐day announcement returns for acquirers for a large sample of U.S. domestic acquisitions between 1990 and 2014 is significantly lower for firms headquartered in relatively higher corruption states. Our results survive an array of robustness tests.     

降费综合方案下企业职工基本养老保险财政风险预警

财政对城镇职工基本养老保险的补贴在逐年迅速递增,财政风险亟待掌握。《降低社会保险费率综合方案》同时调整了养老保险单位缴费率和平均工资计算口径。本文根据该文件并考虑参保人缴费不都连续、缴费工资低于统计工资等等实际情况,构建企业职工基本养老保险收支结余精算模型。对比降费有关三种情形对企业职工基本养老保险财务状况的影响,发现降费综合方案虽然在预测前期少数年份会使财务状况有所恶化,但在预测期的大多数年份都能抑制财务状况恶化的势头。基于该方案的实施,设置低、中、高情景预测基本养老保险未来75年间各年的财政风险,发现在不计财政补贴的情况下,无论何种情景,预测期内都会出现支付缺口,且财政风险随年份推移快速上升。建立财政风险预警机制已刻不容缓。故选择预警指标,设立预警级别,评估各级预警的年份区间。考察延迟退休、全面二孩等因素对关键预警指标和预警年份区间的影响,为缓解财政风险提出政策建议。     

财政分权如何加剧了养老保险基金失衡?——基于收支二维视角的分析

基金失衡是当前养老保险制度改革面临的困境。本文从财政分权角度构建基金失衡的解释框架,并对其影响效果与作用机制进行实证检验。结果发现,财政分权显著加剧了养老保险基金的失衡风险,在经内生性与稳健性处理后,这一结果依然成立,且财政分权的影响效应主要通过征缴效率和提前退休两个机制实现。具体而言,财政分权诱发地方政府放松缴费监管,导致养老保险缴费收入遭受损失;财政分权引起地方政府降低退休审核,以致职工提前退休现象较为普遍,进而加大了基金支付需求;制度环境对财政分权的两种作用路径具有门槛效应,在基金相对富余、对财政补贴依赖度低以及总体法定费率较高时,财政分权的作用机制更加突显。本文验证了宏观经济体制对养老保险基金运行的影响,深化了对分权体制与养老保险制度关系的理解。     

Demographic forecasts and fiscal policy rules

All quantitative evaluations of fiscal sustainability that include the effects of population ageing must utilize demographic forecasts. It is well known that such forecasts are uncertain, and some studies have taken that into account by using stochastic population projections jointly with economic models. We develop this approach further by introducing regular demographic forecast revisions that are embedded in stochastic population projections. This allows us to separate, for each demographic outcome and under different policy rules, the expected and realized effects of population ageing on public finances. In our Finnish application, demographic uncertainty produces a considerable sustainability risk. We consider policies that reduce the likelihood of getting highly indebted and demonstrate that, although demographic forecasts are uncertain, they contain enough information to be useful in forward-looking policy rules.     

Sustainability of Tourism Development in Macao,China

To maximize the benefits to stakeholders in Macao, the sustainability of Macao tourism was examined by assessing the economic, socio‐cultural and environmental impacts of tourism, visitor satisfaction and the level of community involvement in local tourism planning from 2002 to 2009, through the use of primary and secondary data. The results revealed that tourism did bring both positive and negative impacts to the community. Visitor satisfaction was found to be moderate. Channels for community participation in local tourism development were also lacking. The paper suggests that for sustainable tourism development, Macao needs to diversify away from its casino industry, to speed up the construction of the public transport system and to keep monitoring the environmental conditions, the students' drop‐out and crime rate and the locals' quality of life. More importantly, a master plan for its tourism development integrating all the key stakeholders' interests is urgently required. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Do Tourism Receipts Contribute to the Sustainability of Current Account Deficits: a Case Study of Barbados

Given Barbados’ recent history of persistent current account deficits and reliance on tourism as a major source of foreign exchange and driver of the economy, this paper investigated the contribution of tourism receipts to the sustainability of Barbados’ current account deficits. Utilizing an inter‐temporal budget approach, it was found that Barbados’ current account deficits were weakly sustainable as a result of tourism's contribution, underscoring the island's dependence on the industry. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.