浅谈新形势下的高职院校设备管理工作

从设备的购置、转资、使用、维修和报废等5个环节入手,介绍了新形势下高职院校设备管理工作的一些经验做法,指出了加强设备管理人员培训的重要性。     

地方性本科院校计算机专业本科毕业设计管理工作的研究

本文针对目前地方性本科院校计算机专业本科毕业设计管理工作中存在的问题,通过认真剖析这些存在的问题,给出解决这些问题的对策,以帮助地方院校加强计算机专业毕业设计的管理工作。     

浅议对安全生产风险管理体系建设的认识

本文主要是认识安全生产风险管理体系建设工作的必要性和重要性,落实责任与资源。旨在交流探讨如何抓住关键环节,推动体系工作,如何结合实际,全员参与,不断总结、持续改进进一步提高电力建设安全生产管理水平。     

MODELING SEQUENTIAL TOURIST FLOWS: WHERE IS THE NEXT DESTINATION?

This paper analyzes the subsequent decisions of tourists with respect to sequential destinations: why they visit a given destination after visiting a previous one and where they are most likely to go. Using a dataset from an on-site tourist survey in Nanjing, China, we study this decision process by partitioning it into three stages, and a nested logit model is used to estimate the determinants in each stage. Apart from the individual characteristics of tourists and destination attributes, we find that the spatial configuration of destinations (spatial structure) also tends to influence tourists’ destination choice. Finally, a series of simulations are carried out to understand the competition/substitution patterns between subsequent destinations.     

Modeling Overnight Recreation Trip Choice: Application of a Repeated Nested Multinomial Logit Model

In this paper we apply the repeated nested multinomial logit model, a version of a random utility model (RUM), to estimate the choice of an overnight versus single day recreation trip, along with the other usual choice of which of the sites to visit, and less typically, the choice of whether to participate (in our application – to fish) at all. We also find statistically significant income effects in the empirical results. The application is to Atlantic Salmon fishing and the data set is for Maine resident angler's fishing trips to rivers in Maine and Canada.     

一种自调节夹紧机构的设计及其异构体

给出一种不用液压装置的可调节夹紧机构,并应用连杆分类学技术推导出一组该机构的异构体,以提供更多的选择方案,对现有的推导方式进行了简化,通过将推导重点放在局部关键技术部位,使连杆类配方案大大减少,推导结果更具针对性和实用性,并可方便的进行手工推导。文章给出了详细的推导过程。     

中等城市绿色交通系统分类评定模型建构

根据以往我国城市绿色交通的调查结论,设计调查问卷,调查之后进行分析。运用Logit回归模型,建立一个专门针对二元因变量的Binary Logit模型,得出以下结论:收入水平、交通拥堵状况、对小汽车的态度和低碳环保意识4个变量因为统计检验不显著而未能进入最终模型。同时,油价、停车费、居所附近的直达公交线路、居所附近的轨道交通、公共交通乘坐舒适度、工作日平均出行距离与居民绿色出行方式的选择具有显著相关关系。     

Review of Categorical Models for Classification Issues in Accounting and Finance

Recent studies have extensively used the logit or probit models for classification problems in accounting and finance. More than 289 articles in prestigious journals have used these or similar methods from 1989 through 1996. This paper reviews several categorical techniques and compares the performance of logit or probit with alternative procedures. Intuitive and mathematical explanations of how the models examined differ in terms of underlying assumptions and other attributes are provided. The alternative techniques are applied to two substantive research questions: predicting bankruptcy and auditors' consistency judgements. Four empirical criteria provide some evidence that the exponential generalized beta of the second kind (EGB2), lomit, and burrit (all new to the accounting and finance literature) improve the log-likelihood functions, and the explanatory power, compared with logit and other models. EGB2, lomit and burrit also provide significantly better classifications and predictions than logit and other techniques.     

Econometric Analysis of Managers' Judgements on the Determinants of the Financial Situation in Russia

The paper presents an econometric analysis of the determinants of the financial situation in Russian manufacturing. Official statistics in Russia are not reliable. This is why the analysis is based on business opinion surveys carried out within `The Russian Economic Barometer' long-term research programme for monitoring and investigation of the transition to the market in Russia. The new adaptive approach elaborated by the author of the paper is used to form a correct set of explanatory variables in regression equations. This approach is based on the comparison of the forecast abilities of alternative models with different sets of explanatory variables. Two periods are considered and compared: January 1993 to January 1995 and February 1995 to January 1998. Two variables, the diffusion index of output and the average order-book level, provide the best explanation of the managers' judgement regarding the financial situation in Russia for the first period. It was found that for the second period, the influence of the `output index' diminished. The main factors with which managers related a `good' financial situation in their enterprises were the sample average of order-book level, the stocks of finished goods, the index of order-book level, the index of output prices ratio, and the indebtedness to banks. All relationships are presented in the context of linear probability and logit models.     

Modeling Clustered Ordered Categorical Data: A Survey

This article surveys various strategies for modeling ordered categorical (ordinal) response variables when the data have some type of clustering, extending a similar survey for binary data by Pendergast, Gange, Newton, Lindstrom, Palta & Fisher (1996). An important special case is when repeated measurement occurs at various occasions for each subject, such as in longitudinal studies. A much greater variety of models and fitting methods are available than when a similar survey for repeated ordinal response data was prepared a decade ago (Agresti, 1989). The primary emphasis of the review is on two classes of models, marginal models for which effects are averaged over all clusters at particular levels of predictors, and cluster-specific models for which effects apply at the cluster level. We present the two types of models in the ordinal context, review the literature for each, and discuss connections between them. Then, we summarize some alternative modeling approaches and ways of estimating parameters, including a Bayesian approach. We also discuss applications and areas likely to be popular for future research, such as ways of handling missing data and ways of modeling agreement and evaluating the accuracy of diagnostic tests. Finally, we review the current availability of software for using the methods discussed in this article.