Keynes, uncertainty and interest rates

Uncertainty plays an important role in The General Theory, particularlyin the theory of interest rates. Keynes did not provide a theoryof uncertainty, but he did make some enlightening remarks aboutthe direction he thought such a theory should take. I arguethat some modern innovations in the theory of probability allowus to build a theory which captures these Keynesian insights.If this is the right theory, however, uncertainty cannot carryits weight in Keynes's arguments. This does not mean that theconclusions of these arguments are necessarily mistaken; intheir best formulation they may succeed with merely an appealto risk.     

制度约束、利益博弈与农村信用社改革

我国农信社体制的变迁与发展，是数十年来各种社会经济问题的集中反映，也是制度约束的必然结果．由此构成了中国农村信用社体制改革问题的艰巨性与复杂性。从利益博弈的角度分析，每一轮农信社体制的改革都将引发一场利益关系的博弈，博弈的均衡点就是此轮改革的结局。希望在农村信用社改革的框架之内解决农村金融服务体系的全部或大部分问题是不切实际的。     

资本流动与货币政策下利率、汇率传导途径

在资本不流动、不完全流动和完全流动这三种宏观环境下，货币政策对于利率与汇率传导途径有所不同。本文在介绍资本不流动和完全流动条件下利率和汇率两个典型模型基础上，尝试给出了资本不完全流动条件下利率和汇率模型，并对我国情况进行了实证分析。     

基于久期缺口的商业银行利率风险免疫策略及实证分析

随着利率市场化的深入，利率风险越来越成为影响商业银行绩效的主要风险，因此，如何对商业银行利率风险进行计量及管理，日益成为国内外学术界高度关注的重要课题。通过建立久期缺口模型，提出了商业银行利率风险免疫策略，并进行实证分析表明：通过确立目标项目，调整资产与负债结构，可以较好地实现商业银行的利率风险免疫。     

启发式教学初探

启发式教学 ,注重的是学生学习兴趣和目的的培养 ,不断增强课堂教学的趣味性 ,巧妙地提出问题 ,抓住重点 ,突破难点 ,精讲多练 ,使学生的学习变“被动”为“主动” ,从而达到启发式教学的目的     

货币政策的产业效应分析——基于中国货币政策的实证研究

本文从基于要素密集度不同的两部门例子出发，说明了由于行业自身的异质性，每个行业对同一货币政策冲击的反应各异。接着利用E—G两步法、ADL模型和基于VAR模型的脉冲响应函数分析1995年后中国六个行业对货币政策冲击的反应。结果显示第一、二产业、房地产业对利率政策冲击反应明显，第三产业、餐饮业和批发贸易零售业反应较小。在此基础上简单分析了造成行业反应不同的原因并给出相关的政策建议。     

儒家利益观与民营企业价值观

在传统农业社会,儒家思想一直是中国的正统思想,它以仁、义、礼、智、信等道德标准约束着人们的行为.在建立社会主义市场经济的今天,社会以发展、效率为主线,强调的是经济活动规则等.在新的历史环境下,蓬勃发展的民营企业在追求经济利益的同时暴露出的种种问题值得人们深思.因此,应将中国传统儒家思想与民营企业的经营活动有机结合,构建义利兼顾的新型民营企业.     

The Lévy LIBOR model

Models driven by Lévy processes are attractive because of their greater flexibility compared to classical diffusion models. First we derive the dynamics of the LIBOR rate process in a semimartingale as well as a Lévy Heath-Jarrow-Morton setting. Then we introduce a Lévy LIBOR market model. In order to guarantee positive rates, the LIBOR rate process is constructed as an ordinary exponential. Via backward induction we get that the rates are martingales under the corresponding forward measures. An explicit formula to price caps and floors which uses bilateral Laplace transforms is derived.     

A Reconsideration of the Jumbo/Non-Jumbo Mortgage Rate Differential

Consistent with a series of recent papers, the interest-rate differential between mortgages eligible for purchase based on loan size by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and larger loans is estimated to be 22 basis points over the 1986–2000 period. This differential averaged 19 basis points for the 1996–2000 period. Other significant effects include: loans slightly above the conforming loan limit and originated late in a calendar year often have a lower rate that nearly fully anticipates their likely characterization as a non-jumbo loan after the conforming loan limit is indexed effective each January; loan-to-value ratios affect jumbo loan rates much more than they affect non-jumbo loan rates; loans located in non-metropolitan areas have a 3 basis point differential versus loans in metropolitan areas that is surprisingly small given the likely higher cost to service non-metropolitan loans and the higher degree of uncertainty about non-metropolitan collateral values; and estimated regional mortgage rate differentials have narrowed through time.