利率理论演变与利率市场化改革进程

利率不但具有货币价格、货币政策中介变量等多种属性,而且是货币经济学研究的核心范畴。通过梳理利率理论研究的基本演变路径,可以将利率理论区分为古典利率理论和凯恩斯利率理论两个层面,利率的这种演进路径确实解释了许多经济现象,但是利率在市场化过程中也带来了许多问题。     

一些国家防止利益冲突的主要做法及其对我国的启示

目前,一些国家制定了防止利益冲突的法律法规,并取得了很好的防治腐败效果。各国防止利益冲突机制的建立,不仅体现在完善立法上,而且体现在有针对性的具体措施上。借鉴一些国家防止利益冲突的成功做法,我国应在完善现有政策措施的基础上,进一步深化体制改革,严格执行廉洁从政的有关规定,逐步推进领导干部财产申报制度,完善回避制度,加强制度建设,尽量减少利益冲突现象的发生。     

Option Pricing For Jump Diffusions: Approximations and Their Interpretation

We derive a computable approximation for the value of a European call option when prices satisfy a jump-diffusion model with the coefficients depending explicitly on time. This is achieved by approximating the original coefficients with functions that are piecewise constant in time. We give an interpretation of the approximating option values, in particular in the context of a discrete-time model associated with the approximating continuous-time model.     

A Norwegian fixation: explaining cheap money in Norway, 1945–1986

In a number of European countries, credit markets were characterised by heavy regulations of quantities and prices, in terms of interest rates, in the post war years. In Norway, the regulations became more vigorous and lasted much longer, than most other countries. This article seeks to explain the extent and persistence of the policy by tracing the role of leading economists, of financial sector, and political considerations in relation to growths policies and the housing markets. Whereas a number of factors are highlighted in the emergence of the system, the role of political considerations in relation to cheap funding for the housing sector appears as a fundamental cause and condition in explaining the persistence of the cheap money policies into the mid-1980s.     

论中国利率市场化进程与利率期货的推出

中国利率市场化的进程正在有步骤地加速推进,利率的市场化必然带来利率波动幅度的加大,如果没有有效的利率风险管理工具作为配套机制,必然会影响利率市场化的顺利进展,也影响到整个金融市场应有作用的发挥.发达国家的经验表明,利率市场化要求利率期货作为利率风险管理的机制予以配合,因此,在推进中国利率市场化的进程中应研究推出利率期货交易的问题.利率期货的最主要承载体是国债期货.根据中国目前利率市场化进展的实际情况,从各类经济实体已经或可能面临的利率风险看,对国债期货的需求日渐强烈.本文的主旨是,在论述中国利率市场化进程中,分析各类经济实体所面临的各种利率风险,以及国债期货对于这一风险管理所起的应有作用,从而得出应当推出国债期货的结论.     

2014年FCI分析及政策启示

金融条件指数（FCI）是衡量和预测一国货币政策和金融松紧状况的重要参考指标,对实体经济有较强的预测能力。本文结合我国的实际情况,构建了包括实际利率、实际有效汇率、社会融资规模增速、房地产市场指数、股票市场指数等5类因素在内的FCI。从总体上看,2014年我国FCI呈先升后降、总体下行的特点,对经济增长有抑制作用。从FCI成分指标变化看,除股票市场对FCI改善发挥了积极作用外,其他几个因素都在不同程度上对FCI产生了抑制作用,其中实际有效汇率对FCI下降的贡献为61.1%,是对FCI影响最大的因素。本文逐项分析了影响FCI的因素,并就金融如何更好地支持经济发展提出了政策建议。     

英语教师角色转变中的利器——配对均值假设检验

假设检验是数理统计学研究的一个重要部分,是研究比较不可或缺的部分,是教师由教学型向教研型转变、实现教学研究两条腿走路的法宝,是展示成果有力的分析工具。从英语学科出发,实例探讨假设检验在其中的应用,具体展示其分析论证的强大作用,以期为英语教师成长、实现教学向教研型转变提供范例。     

利率市场化对小额信贷的多元影响

利率市场化是我国金融界的发展趋势,而利率市场化对小额信贷具有多元影响。正面影响主要体现在拓展小额信贷的市场,改善小额信贷的服务和优化小额信贷的流程等方面;负面影响主要表现在利率波动的两难选择、政策导向的弱化趋势和信贷消费的盲目冲动等方面。因而,应用渐进式的方法推进利率市场化,用商业化和政策性的手段平衡效益和公平。     

Reassessing the Costs and Benefits of Imposing Capital Controls: The Case of Chile (1991–98)

ABSTRACT

This paper aims to highlight some of the less-mentioned costs and benefits of imposing capital controls (in particular, on inflows) in lower income countries (LICs). The impact of controls on the effectiveness of conventional policy tools, as well as the limitations of the latter, are studied in the context of Chile's imposition of unremunerated reserve requirements (URRs) in the early 1990s. Then, using better data and a slightly different specification from earlier studies, an error-correction model for Chile's real exchange rate (RER) is set up with a view to assessing controls' impact thereon. The key finding, contrary to earlier studies, is that controls did depreciate the real exchange rate in the short-run. At the same time, an enhanced controls variable (“the effective” tax implied by the reserve requirement, a la Gallego et al., 1999) was seen to possess an inverse relationship with the equilibrium real exchange rate, suggesting the possibility of controls having facilitated an equilibrium RER appreciation in the long-run.

RESUMEN. El propósito de este documento es esclarecer en cierta medida algunos de los costos beneficios mencionados con menor frecuencia, resultantes de la imposición de controles de capital (especialmente sobre los flujos de entrada de capital) en países con menor renta (LICs–lower income countries). El impacto de los controles sobre la efectividad de las herramientas inherentes a las políticas convencionales, así como la limitación de los últimos han sido estudiados en el contexto de la imposición chilena sobre las exigencias establecidas para las reservas no remuneradas (URRs) a comienzo de los años 1990s. En ese entonces, utilizando una fuente de datos más apropiada y especificaciones levemente distintas a las usadas en estudios anteriores, elaboramos un modelo de error-corrección para la tasa real cambiaria chilena (RER–real exchange rate), con el objeto de evaluar el impacto ejercido por los controles. El descubrimiento clave, contrariamente a lo encontrado en los estudios anteriores, muestra una variable de control mejorada (el impuesto “efectivo” inherente a las exigencias de la reserva, a la Gallego et al., 1999), que se observó tenía una relación con el equilibrio de la tasa cambiaria real, sugiriendo por ende que, a largo plazo, existía la posibilidad de que los controles facilitasen una apreciación RER equilibrada.

RESUMO. Este estudo pretende destacar alguns dos custos e benefícios, pouco divulgados, sobre o controle da imposição de capital (particularmente, das entradas) nos países de baixa renda (LICs). O impacto do controle na eficácia dos instrumentos políticos convencionais bem como as limitações destes instrumentos são estudados no contexto da imposição do Chile dos depósitos compulsórios não remunerados (URRs), no início dos anos 90. Então, utilizando dados melhores e uma especificação um pouco diferente de estudos anteriores, um modelo de correção de erros para a taxa de câmbio real do Chile (RER) é estipulada, visando uma avaliação do impacto do controle, a partir deste momento. A descoberta principal, contrária aos primeiros estudos, é que o controle, definitivamente, deprecia a taxa de câmbio real a curto prazo. Ao mesmo tempo, uma variável de controle aumentada (um imposto “efetivo” implícito no depósito compulsório, conforme Gallego et al., 1999) parece conter uma relação contrária à taxa de câmbio real de equilíbrio, sugerindo a pos-sibilidade de que o controle tenha facilitado uma estimativa do equilíbrio da RER a longo prazo.