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51.
This article refines the way consumer confidence survey data are used in forecasting models. The refinement is easy to describe: it extends existing models by controlling for statistically significant changes in consumer confidence index values. The motivation behind this refinement is simply that not all changes in the confidence index are statistically significant, and mean index values alone provide a noisy signal. Using Michigan Index of Consumer Confidence from 1967 through 2013, we show that controlling for significant versus insignificant changes in the consumer confidence index materially enhances the explanatory power of household expenditure forecasting models. 相似文献
52.
International equality of stock market returns 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Real returns, excess returns, and nominal returns from stock markets in 11 developed countries are compared for the difference in their means and variances by using a new procedure to test their equality and to determine if one stock market dominates another. The sample period from January 1973 to September 1989 is divided into three subperiods. Results show that stock markets in the United States and Germany dominate those in the other countries in early sub-periods, but not in a recent sub-period, to indicate an increasing capital market integration. Integration with Germany has increased more than with the United States, due possibly to the European Monetary System. 相似文献
53.
Ross (1976) has shown, in a static framework, how options can complete financial markets. This paper examines the possible extensions of Ross's idea in a dynamic setup. Surprisingly enough, we find that the answer is very sensitive to the choice of the stochastic model for the underlying security returns. More specifically we obtain the following results: In a discrete-time model, classical European options typically become redundant with some probability (Proposition 2.1). Obnly path dependent (“exotic”) options may generate dynamic spanning (Proposition 4.1). In a continuous-time model with stochastic volatility of the underlying security, and under reasonable assumptions, a European option is always a good instrument for completing markets (Proposition 5.2). 相似文献
54.
This paper demonstrates that the intuitively appealing argument based on the postulated trade-off between expected return, variance and skewness of return of a risk-averse gambler does not provide an explanation of observed betting behaviour. It is shown how the expected utility of a representative gambler faced with a single-prized outcome event can be expressed in terms of the mean and variance of return, the mean and skewness of return or, generally, of the mean and any other single moment of return: and the standard practice of taking a Taylor series expansion/approximation of the expected utility involving moments of return is usually incorrect. Previous analyses have suggested that a punter will accept a lower mean return for higher skewness and this work seems to have involved invalid expansions of the utility function. The upshot is that with certain utility functions which have been used in a number of studies, any analysis based on expansion and estimation of the derivatives of the utility function may be valid only for data based on odds-on favourites and not for longshots. 相似文献
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Jarosław Kwapień Sylwia Gworek Stanisław Drożdż Andrzej Górski 《Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination》2009,4(1):55-72
We analyse structure of the world foreign currency exchange (FX) market viewed as a network of interacting currencies. We
analyse daily time series of FX data for a set of 63 currencies, including gold, silver and platinum. We group together all
the exchange rates with a common base currency and study each group separately. By applying the methods of filtered correlation
matrix we identify clusters of closely related currencies. The clusters are formed typically according to the economical and
geographical factors. We also study topology of weighted minimal spanning trees for different network representations (i.e.,
for different base currencies) and find that in a majority of representations the network has a hierarchical scale-free structure.
In addition, we analyse the temporal evolution of the network and detect that its structure is not stable over time. A medium-term
trend can be identified which affects the USD node by decreasing its centrality. Our analysis shows also an increasing role
of euro in the world’s currency market. 相似文献
58.
PORTFOLIO SELECTION WITH MONOTONE MEAN-VARIANCE PREFERENCES 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Fabio Maccheroni Massimo Marinacci Aldo Rustichini Marco Taboga 《Mathematical Finance》2009,19(3):487-521
We propose a portfolio selection model based on a class of monotone preferences that coincide with mean-variance preferences on their domain of monotonicity, but differ where mean-variance preferences fail to be monotone and are therefore not economically meaningful. The functional associated with this new class of preferences is the best approximation of the mean-variance functional among those which are monotonic. We solve the portfolio selection problem and we derive a monotone version of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), which has two main features: (i) it is, unlike the standard CAPM model, arbitrage free, (ii) it has empirically testable CAPM-like relations. The monotone CAPM has thus a sounder theoretical foundation than the standard CAPM and a comparable empirical tractability. 相似文献
59.
J. D. Jobson 《Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting》1991,1(3):235-257
The mean-variance efficient set is used extensively in portfolio analysis and in addition underlies many of the models and
tests of asset pricing. Despite this vital role, little direct attention has been paid to efficient frontier estimation. This
article illustrates that an estimator for the efficient set hyperbola is composed of three mutually independent statistics
whose distributions are known. This result is used to develop a confidence region for the efficient set hyperbola in (σ, μ)
space. Two alternative approaches are used to define a confidence region. The first approach can be used to obtain an expression
for a confidence region for σ given μ or for μ given σ. The second approach defines a confidence region in (σ, μ) space that
contains the true hyperbola with a specified probability. In addition, anF test for mean-variance efficiency is used to generate a sample acceptance region. The sample acceptance region and the two
confidence regions are compared graphically. A simulation experiment is used to examine the properties of the various procedures. 相似文献
60.
One foot in,one foot out: how does individuals' external search breadth affect innovation outcomes? 下载免费PDF全文
The “variance hypothesis” predicts that external search breadth leads to innovation outcomes, but people have limited attention for search and cultivating breadth consumes attention. How does individuals' search breadth affect innovation outcomes? How does individuals' allocation of attention affect the efficacy of search breadth? We matched survey data with complete patent records, to examine the search behaviors of elite boundary spanners at IBM. Surprisingly, individuals who allocated attention to people inside the firm were more innovative. Individuals with high external search breadth were more innovative only when they allocated more attention to those sources. Our research identifies limits to the “variance hypothesis” and reveals two successful approaches to innovation search: “cosmopolitans” who cultivate and attend to external people and “locals” who draw upon internal people. © 2014 The Authors. Strategic Management Journal published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. 相似文献