From Davos,Switzerland to Mombasa,Kenya: a position paper on the adoption of the ‘Davos declaration’ by hotels

Climate change has been identified as a major challenge in the achievement of sustainable development especially for developing countries like Kenya. There has been a wide acknowledgement that there is a need for long-term strategies for the industry players to reduce their contribution to climate change in line with other industries. Industries and societal sectors have sought ways of mitigating the causes of climate change. The Second International Conference on Climate Change and Tourism, held in Davos, Switzerland, on 3 October 2007, provided practical guidelines for the industry in response to climate change. This paper seeks to evaluate the adoption of the ‘Davos Declaration’ among selected Mombasa hotels in terms of water, energy and waste management. Results indicate that despite wide knowledge among hoteliers on the impacts of climate change and the role hotels can play in its mitigation, most hoteliers are slow in adopting the mitigation measures.     

碳关税与减缓气候变化

通过国际贸易与气候变化的关系,本文审视了碳关税作为贸易领域减缓气候变化措施尚存在的问题,认为即使碳关税为世贸组织所接受,在传统意义上也未必能成为一种有效的保护产业竞争力的手段,在亟需全球合作的时刻反而会适得其反。目前,全球的产业合作协定、技术共享等可能更为有效。从长期看,碳关税成为气候政策的一部分将是必不可少的,它可以成为减缓和适应气候变化的重要措施,中国须未雨绸缪。     

石灰岩地区小水库除险加固工程的经济社会效益分析

简要介绍石灰岩地区小水库的特点、存在问题以及综合采用灌浆、复合土工膜覆盖和坡面复合式防渗等技术集成的加固方案。以江苏省徐州市石灰岩地区的5座小水库为例,参照相关规范分析水库工程取得的社会效益和生态效益,从防洪、灌溉和多种经营效益等方面详细计算了病险水库除险加固工程的经济效益。根据工程的实际资料,采用国民经济评价方法,对5座小水库除险加固工程的经济内部收益率、经济效益费用比、经济净现值3项指标进行了分析。结果表明,该工程在经济上是合理的,具有显著的社会效益和环境生态效益。     

2000～2010年我国洪涝灾害损失综合评估及其成因分析

利用我国的洪涝灾害损失数据,分析了我国2000～2010年洪涝灾害受灾人口、农业受灾面积和直接受灾经济损失之间的关系,洪涝灾害损失的空间分布特征以及受灾损失与年平均降水量之间的关系。根据近10年来我国洪涝灾害的新特点,提出了我国洪水管理及防灾减灾的若干措施。     

Payments for environmental services to promote “climate‐smart agriculture”? Potential and challenges

Payments for environmental services (PES) have gained wide popularity as approaches to promote environmentally friendly land use or agricultural production practices. Yet academics have also voiced concerns against seeing PES as a panacea. This article discusses whether PES is an appropriate and promising approach to promote so‐called “climate‐smart agriculture” (CSA) practices, which we define as agricultural production practices that contribute to CO₂ emission reductions and/or removals and provide benefits to farmers via increased productivity and profits and reduced vulnerability to climate change. PES appears most promising for the promotion of CSA practices in small‐scale farming contexts with low incomes. Effective design, however, requires solid estimates of cost and benefit flows from CSA adoption over time, accounting for differences in socioeconomic and ecological conditions, and addressing the risk of leakage. Funding for such PES will likely have to come from public sources, and seems most promising where synergies with other objectives such as agricultural development, food security, and climate adaptation or other environmental services exist. The potential of alternative approaches for CSA support such as taxation with rebates for CSA practices, CSA‐related investment support such as microcredits, and hybrid approaches such as conditional microcredit should be further investigated.     

Can tourism be part of the decarbonized global economy? The costs and risks of alternate carbon reduction policy pathways

Global leaders agree on the need to substantially decarbonize the global economy by 2050. This paper compares potential costs associated with different policy pathways to achieve tourism sector emission reduction ambitions (?50% by 2035) and transform the sector to be part of the mid-century decarbonized economy (?70% by 2050). Investment in emissions abatement within the tourism sector, combined with strategic external carbon offsets, was found to be approximately 5% more cost effective over the period 2015–2050 than exclusive reliance on offsetting. The cost to achieve the ?50% target through abatement and strategic offsetting, while significant, represents less than 0.1% of the estimated global tourism economy in 2020 and 3.6% in 2050. Distributed equally among all tourists (international and domestic), the cost of a low-carbon tourism sector is estimated at US$11 per trip, equivalent to many current travel fees or taxes. Exclusive reliance on offsetting would expose the sector to extensive and continued carbon liability costs beyond mid-century and could be perceived as climate inaction, increasing reputational risks and the potential for less efficient regulatory interventions that could hinder sustainable tourism development. Effective tourism sector leadership is needed to develop a strategic tourism policy framework and emission measurement and reporting system.     

How can the EU climate targets be met? A combined analysis of technological and demand-side changes in food and agriculture

To meet the 2 °C climate target, deep cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will be required for carbon dioxide from fossil fuels but, most likely, also for methane and nitrous oxide from agriculture and other sources. However, relatively little is known about the GHG mitigation potential in agriculture, in particular with respect to the combined effects of technological advancements and dietary changes. Here, we estimate the extent to which changes in technology and demand can reduce Swedish food-related GHG emissions necessary for meeting EU climate targets. This analysis is based on a detailed representation of the food and agriculture system, using 30 different food items.We find that food-related methane and nitrous oxide emissions can be reduced enough to meet the EU 2050 climate targets. Technologically, agriculture can improve in productivity and through implementation of specific mitigation measures. Under optimistic assumptions, these developments could cut current food-related methane and nitrous oxide emissions by nearly 50%. However, also dietary changes will almost certainly be necessary. Large reductions, by 50% or more, in ruminant meat (beef and mutton) consumption are, most likely, unavoidable if the EU targets are to be met. In contrast, continued high per-capita consumption of pork and poultry meat or dairy products might be accommodated within the climate targets. High dairy consumption, however, is only compatible with the targets if there are substantial advances in technology. Reducing food waste plays a minor role for meeting the climate targets, lowering emissions only by an additional 1–3%.     

Analyzing the role of mutual guarantee societies on bank capital requirements for small and medium-sized enterprises

This paper analyzes the impact of the guarantee provided by mutual guarantee societies (MGSs) on the risk premium that banks should charge for small- and medium-sized enterprise (SME) loans under the new Basel Capital Accords (Basel II and III). We also examine whether the foreseeable decrease in the theoretical credit risk premium would be compensated by the cost of the MGS guarantee. To do so, we develop a rating system for SMEs that uses a large sample of Spanish firms over the period from 2005 to 2009. We find that the final effect of the guarantee on the SME risk premium depends on the values taken by the credit variables of the MGS (essentially, the probability of default).     

我国刑罚轻缓化的经济分析——兼论罚金刑和自由刑的适用

刑罚轻缓化已经成为刑罚结构改革的总体趋势,通过对刑罚轻缓化的经济分析,我们可以挖掘出刑罚轻缓化背后深层次的原因,那就是＂高概率的惩罚与轻刑化＂的组合是预防和控制犯罪最为经济有效的方式,而轻刑化即我们所谓的刑罚轻缓化。在刑罚轻缓化的背景之下,透视罚金刑与自由刑的适用,我们可以发现罚金刑更符合刑罚轻缓化之意旨,应提升到主刑的地位,未来我国的刑罚结构改革也应以罚金刑为主导,而自由刑只起辅助的作用。     

A new economics approach to modelling policies to achieve global 2020 targets for climate stabilisation

This paper explores a Post Keynesian, ‘new economics’ approach to climate policy, assessing the opportunities for investment in accelerated decarbonisation of the global economy to 2020 following the Great Recession of 2008–2009. The risks associated with business-as-usual growth in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere suggest that avoiding dangerous climate change will require that the world’s energy-economy system is transformed through switching to low-carbon technologies and lifestyles. Governments have agreed a target to hold the increase in temperatures above pre-industrial levels to at most 2°C and have offered reductions by 2020 in GHG emissions or the carbon-intensity of GDP. The effects of policies proposed to achieve pathways to 2020 towards this target are assessed using E3MG, an Energy-Environment-Economy (E3) Model at the Global level. E3MG is an annual simulation econometric model, estimated for 20 world regions over 1972–2006 adopting a new economics approach. Additional low-GHG investment of some 0.7% of GDP, with carbon pricing and other policies, is sufficient to achieve a pathway consistent with a medium chance of achieving the long-term target. GDP is above reference levels because decarbonisation reduces world oil prices and increases investment. Employment is some 0.9% above reference levels by 2020 and public finances are almost unaffected.