中国信用风险缓释工具创新试点最新进展研究

信用风险缓释工具是中国银行间市场2010年创新试点推出的信用风险管理工具,它将短期融资券、中期票据和贷款等信用产品的信用风险剥离定价,并转移给愿意承担风险的投资者,其推出从根本上改变了商业银行等金融机构信用风险管理的传统特征。通过对信用风险缓释工具试点中投资主体培育、市场定价、做市商机制、信息披露、市场外部环境建设等问题进行研究,有利于信用缓释工具功能的充分发挥,有利于完善债券市场信用风险分担机制、有利于商业银行等投资者动态、专业地管理信用风险。     

Experience and the unexpected: risk and mitigation issues for operating underground storage silos for coal-fired power plant

Observed autoignition events and extinguishing the resulting smouldering fires in an underground storage system of a coal-fired power plant have provided insight into the array of contributing variables, and some experience on quantifying the risk with alternative scenarios of event initiation, progress and potential mitigation. Although the first attempts to quantify the risk suggest high sensitivity to the sequence of action taken after fire alarm, and no similar storage sites really exist, some recommended preventive, corrective and other mitigating activities can be at least partly defined and improved by using the cumulative experience and parallel efforts in other closed or underground storage sites. However, there are also so-called black (or at least grey) swans: unexpected events for which the facility may be poorly prepared for. In the case of the underground storage silos, such an event was experienced when incoming cold coal during a harsh winter season froze the sewer system that normally protects the stored coal from seepage water. With blocked normal bypass, the seepage water found its way to the coal silos and created large clumps of icy coal that blocked the coal conveyors. Although freezing weather is not unusual at high-latitude power plants, the common methods to combat freezing of coal are mainly useful for open storage sites and above-ground transport. Options for mitigation are discussed, as well as the event chain leading to an event that had never previously occurred. The case is discussed from the point of view of options to prepare for rare or unforeseen events.     

我国碳减排的定量评估

作为全球第一大碳排放国和第二大经济体,我国正承受着越来越大的碳减排压力。在世界各国都参与应对气候变化的进程中,我国的最优碳减排幅度是怎样的呢？本文在Nordhaus的RICE-2010模型基础上,通过将化石能源的消耗内生于经济系统模块,改良出RICE-E模型。数值计算表明,从2005至2095年,我国需实现完全碳减排,相应的碳税水平从每吨碳排放68．7元（2010年价）提高到接近2000元。这个力度在世界各大国中并不是最激进的,位处俄罗斯和美国之后,与欧盟、拉美为同一档次,但强于日本和印度。在此碳减排进程下,我国碳排放量由升转降的时间拐点出现在2055年左右。     

Fear of climate change consequences and predictors of intentions to alter meat consumption

Reducing or altering meat consumption has the potential to significantly lower the impact humans have on climate change. Consumers, however, are unlikely to break their food habits unless they are aware of the problem and motivated by the solutions. Fear appeals are often used to overcome this, however, their effectiveness in the context of meat reduction and climate change is unclear. Given the widespread use of fear appeals in information policy, it is important to understand more. The aim of this study was to explore fear—or more specifically—the danger control process in a climate change—food context in order to understand the factors which motivate consumers to reduce or alter their meat consumption. Using a stratified random sample of 222 respondents in Southern Sweden, we develop a model for predicting intentions to adopt specific and general actions to reduce or alter meat consumption. Our results suggest that the general key to motivating consumers is through increasing their self-efficacy towards adopting meat alternatives and educating them on the importance their actions have in reducing the threat. We also found that appraising the threat to self (or those close) was significant, but surprisingly the effect size was greater when the threat concerned others (e.g. others in impoverished nations, animals).     

Wetland mitigation banking: Negotiations with stakeholders in a zone of ecological-economic viability

Wetland mitigation banking (WMB) is an organizational form that attempts to balance the ecological goals of wetland conservation and the economic goals of development with the aim of improving the implementation of wetland offsetting. Given the resulting tension, it is important to understand how the way stakeholders employ the WMB regulatory framework affects the goal of No Net Loss of wetlands. In this study, we interviewed WMB stakeholders in Florida in the United States to identify their strategies during negotiations around different aspects of defining wetland mitigation credits (e.g. service areas, types of credit and credit release schedules). Using the approach of New Institutional Economics, we found that within a framework of well-defined rules that nonetheless allow flexibility, WMB enables a field of action for negotiating within a zone of ecological-economic viability – in part due to the stakeholders’ interest in maintaining a good reputation in this field. Outside of this zone of viability a wetland mitigation bank proposal collapses for economic or ecological reasons.     

Embedded Options in the Mortgage Contract

Loss mitigation is the process by which lenders attempt to minimize losses associated with foreclosure. As competition increases in the mortgage industry, lenders and servicers are under great pressure to adopt loss mitigation tactics rather than simply use foreclosure as the means of dealing with borrowers in default. This study presents a mortgage-pricing model that fully specifies all borrower options with respect to default, including the ability to reinstate the mortgage out of default. We document the impact of various loss mitigation programs, including forbearance and antideficiency judgments, as well as the value of credit on borrower default behavior.     

Economic Potential of Biomass Based Fuels for Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation

Use of biofuels diminishes fossil fuelcombustion thereby also reducing net greenhousegas emissions. However, subsidies are neededto make agricultural biofuel productioneconomically feasible. To explore the economicpotential of biofuels in a greenhouse gasmitigation market, we incorporate data onproduction and biofuel processing for thedesignated energy crops switchgrass, hybridpoplar, and willow in an U.S. AgriculturalSector Model along with data on traditionalcrop-livestock production and processing, andafforestation of cropland. Net emissioncoefficients on all included agriculturalpractices are estimated through crop growthsimulation models or taken from the literature. Potential emission mitigation policies ormarkets are simulated via hypothetical carbonprices. At each carbon price level, theAgricultural Sector Model computes the newmarket equilibrium, revealing agriculturalcommodity prices, regionally specificproduction, input use, and welfare levels,environmental impacts, and adoption ofalternative management practices such asbiofuel production. Results indicate no rolefor biofuels below carbon prices of $40 perton of carbon equivalent. At these incentivelevels, emission reductions via reduced soiltillage and afforestation are more costefficient. For carbon prices above $70,biofuels dominate all other agriculturalmitigation strategies.     

信用风险缓释工具在商业银行中的风险缓释效果研究

对13家美国银行的年度面板数据进行量化分析发现:信用风险缓释工具的使用并不直接表现出风险加权资产及整体银行风险的下降,而是表现为在风险一定的情况下银行可以发放更多的贷款.在剔除了过度投机因素后,银行可增加约63％的目标贷款额.     

Is there a case for carbon-based border tax adjustment? An applied general equilibrium analysis

Concern that unilateral Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission reductions could foster carbon leakage and undermine the international competitiveness of domestic industry has led to growing calls for carbon-based Border-Tax Adjustments (BTAs). This article uses a global general equilibrium model to assess the economic effects of BTAs and comes to three main conclusions. First, BTAs can reduce carbon leakage if the coalition of countries taking action to reduce GHG emissions is small, because in this case leakage (while typically small) mainly occurs through international trade competitiveness losses rather than through declines in world fossil fuel prices. Second, even though the economic effects of BTAs vary somewhat depending on how they are implemented, their welfare impact is typically small, and slightly negative at the world level. Third, and perhaps more strikingly, BTAs do not necessarily curb the output losses incurred by the domestic Energy Intensive-Industries (EIIs) they are intended to protect in the first place. This is in part because EIIs in industrialized countries make important use of carbon-intensive intermediate inputs produced by EIIs in other geographical areas. Another, deeper explanation is that EIIs are ultimately more adversely affected by the existence of a carbon price itself than by any international competitiveness losses. These findings are shown to be robust to key model parameters, country coverage, targets and design features of BTAs.     

从个体理性到交往理性：东海铸锻担保圈风险的形成和化解

交往主体作为“经济人”,在市场的博弈过程中,追逐自身利益最大化是个体理性的选择,但在日常经济活动中,个体理性往往导致集体非理性结局。本文运用哈贝马斯的“交往理性”理论剖析了山东省聊城市东海铸锻破产案,在政府主导或外部力量适度干预下,通过谈判磋商,最终促进多家银行与企业达到交往理性的均衡状态,并据此提出了相关风险处置的顶层设计。