Macroeconomic effects of structural reforms and fiscal consolidations: Trade-offs and complementarities

This paper studies the impact of product and labour market structural reforms and the effects of their joint implementation with alternative debt consolidation strategies. The set-up is a dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated for the Greek economy. The results show that structural reforms produce important long-run GDP gains that materialize earlier, the faster the reforms are implemented. When implemented jointly with fiscal consolidations, structural reforms may amplify the short-run costs of fiscal tightening. The GDP dynamics depend on the fiscal instrument used for public debt consolidation. In the long run, however, there are complementarity gains irrespective of the fiscal instrument used.     

"农户+公司"型农产品供应链协同机制研究

文章在市场价格不确定的环境下,构建了一个农户—公司灰色博弈模型并借此探讨了农户+公司型农产品供应链在动态价格下的协同稳定机制,最后通过实例说明了协同机制模型的合理性与有效性。     

基于PSR模型的广东省城市土地集约利用空间差异分析

将＂压力—状态—响应＂框架引入到城市土地集约利用评价指标体系中,采用主成分分析方法对评价指标进行赋权,对广东省21个地级市的城市土地集约利用水平进行了评价。结果表明,广东省城市土地利用集约度差异形成的主要影响因素是地理区位条件和经济发展水平,资源赋存状况也是重要的制约条件。城市土地集约利用是一个复杂的系统工程,不仅要注重提高土地利用的产出效益,还要重视系统压力状态的调节和系统反馈能力建设。研究也表明,PSR评价指标体系及主成分分析方法能较好地适应城市土地集约利用评价的需要。     

贵州省产业园区基础设施融资模式研究

产业园区最早出现于19世纪末西方工业化国家中,并在第二次世界大战后得到了迅速的发展。产业园区创造的工业总产值对GDP的贡献作用意义非凡。对于经济欠发达的贵州而言,产业园区的建设对于促进贵州经济的良好发展起着举足轻重的作用。对贵州省产业园区基础设施融资模式进行研究,提出贵州省产业园区基础设施融资模式具体的融资方案设计,以此为产业园区基础设施顺利建设,进而为产业园区健康、持续与长远的发展,进一步地促进贵州省经济又好又快发展奠定坚实的基础。     

Do global CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel consumption exhibit long memory? a fractional-integration analysis

In this article we use an autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average approach to measure the degree of fractional integration of aggregate world CO₂ emissions and its five components – coal, oil, gas, cement, and gas flaring. We find that all variables are stationary and mean reverting, but exhibit long-term memory. Our results suggest that both coal and oil combustion emissions have the weakest degree of long-range dependence, while emissions from gas and gas flaring have the strongest. With evidence of long memory, we conclude that transitory policy shocks are likely to have long-lasting effects, but not permanent effects. Accordingly, permanent effects on CO₂ emissions require a more permanent policy stance. In this context, if one were to rely only on testing for stationarity and non-stationarity, one would likely conclude in favour of non-stationarity, and therefore that even transitory policy shocks have permanent effects. Our fractional-integration analysis highlights that this is not the case.     

Incorporating innovation subsidies in the CDM framework: empirical evidence from Belgium

ABSTRACT

This paper integrates innovation input and output effects of R&D subsidies into a modified Crépon–Duguet–Mairesse (CDM) model. Our results largely confirm insights of the input additionality literature, i.e. public subsidies complement private R&D investment. In addition, results point to positive output effects of both purely privately funded and subsidy-induced R&D. Furthermore, we do not find evidence of a premium or discount of subsidy-induced R&D in terms of its marginal contribution on new product sales when compared to purely privately financed R&D.     

多功能型团队的特质及其运行模式研究

针对多功能型团队可能失效的问题,在清晰界定多功能型团队的基础上,从区分多功能型团队与群体的角度出发,提出了高绩效多功能型团队应具备的3个特质:任务导向性、人员依赖性与氛围民主性;探讨了多功能型团队的有效运行模式,以确保企业能真正孕育高绩效的多功能型团队。     

我国产险公司财务恶化预警——基于Logistic模型

如何准确评估保险公司财务并对财务恶化进行正确的预警．一直是国内外学界、业界及监管机构关注的热点问题之一。本文采用我国产险公司2002～2005年数据,通过Logistic模型找出对产险公司财务状况具有显着影响的各种因素．并利用事前概率与预测概率辨别出财务状况异常的产险公司,在错误成本允许的条件下,寻求最佳的监管资源配置。实证结果表明．在不同的监管标准下,衡量产险公司财务影响因素的显著程度有所差异。模型受检值以事前概率为标准较预测概率为好．且受检值的大小将会影响产险公司财务状况预测的结果。     

投资者异质性与证券市场定价——理论模型与中国的经验证据

本文从投资者异质性的客观现实出发,通过对投资者二维视角的交叉分类与相关行为的探讨,提出了一种按交易特点与行为依据的新的分类方案,即将投资者分为套利交易者、价格预期交易者和量能变动交易者三类。在此基础上分别建立了各类投资者的需求函数,通过对证券市场供求函数的讨论,利用均衡分析方法构建了基于投资者异质性的证券市场定价模型,并以我国证券市场1999-2011年的月度数据为样本进行了实证分析。实证结果表明:我国证券市场价格主要由价格预期交易者的诱导性策略行为与量能变动交易者的羊群行为决定,套利交易者的套利行为对市场价格没有显著的影响,证券市场扩容也未对市场价格的形成产生系统性冲击。