资产证券化对货币政策实效性的影响

资产证券化对货币政策的影响 ,是一个具有理论和实际意义的重要问题。本文从三个方面对此进行了表述。一是资产证券化对货币政策传导路径的影响 ,指出它并未降低利率政策的实效性 ,但对货币供应量这一货币政策的中间目标的实效性会有影响。二是资产证券化对利率期限结构的影响 ,指出资产证券化加强了短期利率影响长期利率的实效性 ;三是分析了资产证券化对银行监管的影响。     

Does the Reserve Bank of Australia follow a forward-looking nonlinear monetary policy rule?

ABSTRACT

The conventional monetary policy rule describes a simple linear relationship between the domestic interest rate, inflation rate and output gap. An important extension to this rule is to incorporate the forward-looking behaviour of central banks, where it is assumed that they target an expected level of inflation instead of its current realised value. Using quarterly observations for the period 1993:1-2018:2, this paper investigates whether the conduct of monetary policy in Australia can be described by a forward-looking linear monetary policy rule, or by a nonlinear forward-looking monetary policy rule. In particular, the nonlinear forward-looking monetary policy rule is analysed in a regime-switching framework using a smooth logistic transition regression model. While the results show that the conventional forward-looking linear monetary policy rule describes the application of monetary policy in Australia reasonably well, the interest rate setting behaviour of the RBA is best described by a nonlinear forward-looking monetary policy rule.     

经济开放度与货币政策有效性的实证分析

通过运用Karras建立的产出增长率和通货膨胀模型,采用向量自回归VAR框架,分析经济开放度对我国货币政策效果的影响。回归结果表明,无论是以M0作为货币政策的测度指标,还是以M1作为货币政策的测度指标,它们都反映出:在长期,经济开放度的提高会削弱货币政策的有效性;但从短期来看,经济开放度的提高不一定会削弱货币政策的有效性,有时反而会提高货币政策的有效性。     

基于状态空间模型的汇率和货币供给对通货膨胀影响的实证分析——基于央行资产负债表的视角

从分析人民银行资产负债表的变化出发,运用状态空间模型实证分析了2005年7月至2012年6月中国汇率和货币供给对通货膨胀影响的动态时变过程。研究结果表明:人民币汇率升值对通货膨胀有一定的抑制作用,但其效果较弱;货币供给对通货膨胀有较大的正向推动作用,货币供给的持续增加是人民银行资产负债表中资产方的外汇占款科目不断增加导致负债方的基础货币持续增加的结果。     

Would helicopter money be spent? New evidence for the Netherlands

According to some economists, central banks should use ‘helicopter money’ to boost inflation (expectations). Based on a survey among Dutch households, we examine whether respondents would spend the money received via such a transfer. Our results show that respondents expect to spend about 30% of the transfer and that helicopter money would hardly affect inflation expectations. Furthermore, whether transfers come from the central bank or the government makes no difference. Finally, our results suggest that the effect of helicopter money on public trust in the ECB is ambiguous.     

A classroom experiment in monetary policy

The authors propose a classroom experiment implementing a simple version of a New Keynesian model suitable for courses in intermediate macroeconomics and money and banking. Students play as either the central bank or members of the private sector. The central banker sets interest rates to meet twin objectives for inflation and the output gap or to meet only an inflation target. In both settings, private sector agents are concerned with correctly forecasting the inflation rate. The authors show that an experiment implementing this setup is feasible and yields results that enhance understanding of the New Keynesian model of monetary policy. They propose alternative versions where the central bank is replaced by a policy rule and provide suggestions for discussing the experimental results with students.     

股票市场的货币政策传导分析

货币政策的传导机制不是唯一的,金融市场的种种特征造成了货币政策传导的多样性,股票市场中的货币政策传导就具有独特的规律,在不与银行信贷的创造机制相连的前提下,信贷资金和股市资金的沟通是合理的,目前中国信贷市场和股票市场之间千丝万缕的关系,并没有为货币政策传导创造更加有效的机制基础,股票市场还不能成为货币政策的有效传导渠道。     

When Does an Inflation Target Yield the Second Best?

It is shown that an inflation target does not establish the second best if the central bank is independent and the government collects seigniorage revenues. To eliminate excessive inflation and ensure that stabilization is efficient, society should combine an optimal inflation target with a central bank that attaches less weight to inflation stabilization than the public does.     

银行业在区域经济市场化过程中的策略选择——以振兴东北老工业基地为例

振兴东北是从传统到现代、从计划到市场的经济制度变迁过程.货币政策的区域效应使银行业在东北这一特定区域市场化进程中有了采取区域性策略的可能.在分析东北的区域性经济特点的基础上,针对银行业自身改制和振兴东北的企业问题,本文提出了在东北经济市场化进程中的区域性银行业策略.     

东亚货币一体化博弈分析

东亚发展中国家与地区如何选择汇率制度一直是个颇有争议的话题。在“欧元”单一货币区成功实施的背景下,寻求货币一体化便成为东亚各国与地区关注的焦点。实际上,东亚货币一体化就是各参与方根据其参与的成本和收益,权衡利弊得失的决策博弈过程,该过程具有两阶段博弈的特征。