Working Less and Bargain Hunting More: Macroimplications of Sales during Japan's Lost Decades

Standard New Keynesian models have often neglected temporary sales. In this study, we ask whether this treatment is appropriate. We use Japanese scanner data covering the last two decades and find a negative correlation between the frequency of sales and hours worked. We then construct a model that takes households' decisions regarding their allocation of time for work, leisure, and bargain hunting into account. We show that the decline in hours worked explains the rise in the frequency of sales. The real effect of monetary policy shocks weakens by around 40% due to temporary sales, but monetary policy still matters.     

A Multiple and Partial Wavelet Analysis of the Oil Price,Inflation, Exchange Rate,and Economic Growth Nexus in Saudi Arabia

This article provides a fresh insight into the dynamic nexus between oil prices, the Saudi/US dollar exchange rate, inflation, and output growth rate in Saudi Arabia’ economy, using novel Morlet’ wavelet methods. Specifically, it implements various tools of methodology: the continuous wavelet power spectrum, the cross-wavelet power spectrum, the wavelet coherency, the multiple and the partial wavelet coherence to the annual sample period 1969–2014. Our results unveil that the relationships among the variables evolve through time and frequency. From the time-domain view, we show strong but non-homogenous linkages between the four variables. From the frequency-domain view, we uncover significant wavelet coherences and strong lead-lag relationships. From an economic view, the wavelet analysis shows that Saudi economy is still exposed to several global risk factors, which are mainly related to the oil market volatility, and the pegging of the local currency to the US dollar. Such risk factors strongly and negatively affect the real economic growth, exert more pressure on inflation, and substantially limit the freedom to pursue an independent monetary policy.     

关注调整中的国际货币体制权力结构

国际货币体系始终处于动荡之中,关键货币之间汇率冲突不断,导致这种状况的主要根源是美元危机。美元面临多方面挑战。美元体制基础弱化的征兆越来越明显。国际主导货币之间的竞争呈现新的特点。我国应注意发挥人民币潜在功能,完善外汇政策体系,维护金融稳定,在人民币国际化问题上宜立足于"不急不躁"战略。     

货币政策对股票价格行为的影响实证分析

文章以影响股票价格的理论为基础,采用现代计量技术,采用2005年1月至2007年6月的月度时间序列数据,研究了汇率、存款准备金率以及利率、货币供应量等宏观经济因素对股票价格的影响。从2005年6月以来我国A股市场股票价格的持续上涨,其主要原因是经济的高速增长、人民币升值以及充足的货币供应量;而加息与提高存款准备金率对股票价格变化的影响有限。     

中国治理通货膨胀的货币政策操作方式选择

本文从中国特殊的金融体制安排出发,归纳了中国货币政策工具和目标体系。然后分别以"中介目标—最终目标"与"操作目标—中介目标"为基础构建两组向量自回归模型,通过格兰杰因果检验、预测误差方差分解以及脉冲响应分析,量化比较各种政策工具、目标的作用效果,以识别治理通货膨胀的有效货币政策操作方式。研究发现:狭义货币供应量是影响中国通货膨胀最有效的中介目标;而金融机构信贷计划又是影响狭义货币供应量的最有效操作目标。论文论述了信贷规模控制制度下的货币创造与货币供给机制,对实证结论进行了解释。相关政策建议包括:对于较为严重的通货膨胀,应该迅速从信贷规模控制入手,切断货币投放的主渠道;对于公众能够承受的温和通货膨胀,主要还应运用存款准备金率等市场化工具;实行利率市场化并优化贷款结构则是长期努力方向。最后论文简要评价了危机后中国的货币政策操作。     

Output Gap Estimation and Monetary Policy in China

Using the Bayesian multivariate Beveridge-Nelson decomposition method, this paper estimates China's output gap based on a multivariate dynamic model featuring distinct interactions among real output, inflation, money, and the exchange rate in China during the period 1980-2010. The authors compare the statistical nature and potential forecasting effects of the resulting multivariate gap measure on monetary policy with those of the output gap measures based on univariate models. The empirical results show that only the measure based on the multivariate system significantly predicts monetary policy, which indicates that the output gap estimated by the multivariate system contains more information than the traditional measures for macroeconomic policy adjustments do.     

国库库存纳入货币统计口径探析——基于货币政策中介目标有效性标准视角

随着我国宏观经济的快速持续增长,以及财政体制改革的深化,国库收支运行出现了新态势,突出表现为国库库存规模的不断递增,并且波动幅度不断加大,国库库存已经成为影响货币供应量的重要因素,在货币操作中需要密切关注国库资金的运行变化。首先描述了近年来我国国库库存变化的特征,然后基于货币政策中介目标有效性的可测性、可控性和相关性三个标准对现有货币统计口径和加入国库库存后的货币统计口径进行比较。从实证的结果来看,新的货币口径要优于原有的货币口径,因此将国库库存纳入货币中介目标监控体系,才能更好地反映宏观经济金融的实际情况,进一步提高货币政策的有效性。最后提出了将地方国库库存纳入货币统计口径,完善国库集中收付改革,推进地方国库现金管理三个政策建议。     

比特币的货币属性分析

比特币作为一种新型电子货币,自产生以来受到了世界范围内的广泛关注。文章基于文献研究和对比分析,将比特币与传统货币进行对比,从货币本质、货币职能、货币发行机制等方面对比特币的货币属性进行分析。分析结果认为：比特币极其接近货币的本质,同时基本具备货币的五大职能,但是由于它在发行机制方面固有的特点（总量固定、产生速度由算法确定）,很难替代纸币成为未来的货币。同时,文章给出了比特币对传统货币和其他电子货币的启示和借鉴。     

中国核心通货膨胀率的度量及其货币政策涵义

基于包含实际总产出、货币供给M2和CPI的向量自回归模型(VAR),将CPI分解为长期变动趋势和短期波动项。将长期趋势部分定义为核心通货膨胀率。运用1994～2009年中国季度数据进行实证检验,核心通胀率与CPI有长期均衡关系,主导CPI的长期变动趋势,是CPI的前导变量,能够为预测CPI提供有用信息,对为中央银行判断总体通货膨胀走势、制定及时有效的货币政策有所启示。     

Shibor基准地位确立及对我国货币政策传导效率影响研究

本文运用多种计量方法,对Shibor运行以来基准地位的确立情况以及本轮金融危机爆发以来Shibor基准地位的变动情况进行了分析,探讨了Shibor基准地位的确立对提高我国货币政策传导效率的影响,并提出进一步提高Shibor基准地位的建议。