加强我国城市供水价格机制改革的探讨

随着国民经济的持续快速发展和城市化进程的加快,我国已经有相当部分城市出现了水资源短缺的 状况,城市缺水范围不断扩大,缺水程度日趋严重,水质日益恶化,许多沿江、沿河城市不断受到洪水威 胁,水短缺、水污染、水安全等已经成为制约国民和社会发展的重要因素,对２１世纪我国的环境与发展造成 了巨大的潜在压力。特别是水资源对于将来的地区和平、全球粮食安全、城市经济的增长、工业的选址、能 源化工基地的建设、城市规划的实施,以及西部大开发的推进,都产生着越来越深刻的影响。可是,由于我 国目前的城市供水价格机制不尽健全,在一定程度上不利于加强水资源使用的宏观调控,降低了水资源的利 用效率,成为国民经济发展的制约和瓶颈。因此,探讨科学的城市供水价格机制,具有重要现实意义。     

人民币区域接受程度： 指数构建与影响因子计量 ——以东盟及中国香港为例

金融危机以来,改革现有的国际货币体系,逐步推进“去美元化”进程,已是国际社会共识。周边化及区域化是人民币国际化进程中的重要阶段,建立人民币区域接受程度监测指标体系,具有重要意义。本文基于对东盟及中国香港人民币使用情况的分析,提出人民币区域接受程度指数的构建框架并进行影响因子的计量分析,实证结果表明：(1)在政策推动及市场需求双重作用下,未来东盟人民币接受程度将持续提升,但短期内受经济政治影响会出现较大反复;(2)受政策推动、存款规模较小以及贬值预期影响,中国香港人民币贸易接受程度的提升快于金融接受程度,提高人民币存款占比有助于提升人民币接受程度;(3)中国香港经济状况对人民币接受程度的影响力要高于内地,反映出货币国际化是市场自发选择的过程;(4)由于货币替代影响双边货币政策效果,中国香港通胀水平、利率以及内地通胀水平会受中国香港人民币接受程度的反向影响。     

盈余管理方向与企业投资效率

以2008—2010年沪深A股上市公司为研究样本,从盈余管理的不同方向考察盈余管理程度对企业投资效率的影响,研究发现：适度的正向盈余管理有助于缓和企业投资不足,但过度的正向盈余管理反而会恶化企业投资不足;负向盈余管理往往会伴随产生投资不足的问题。适度的正向盈余管理能够提振投资者信心,从而缓解企业的融资约束。监管部门应该能够容忍企业进行适度的盈余管理,而不是一味地强调所谓“真实的会计信息”。     

货币供应、通货膨胀与经济增长的互动关系研究——基于时变参数VAR模型的实证检验

文章以我国1996年1月至2012年12月的月度数据为基础,首次建立了货币增长率、通货膨胀率和经济增长率的带随机波动的时变参数VAR模型（TVP-VAR）,以此来考察货币供应、通货膨胀和经济增长之间的互动关系。研究结果表明：货币增长短期内促进经济增长,但长期内对经济增长没有驱动效应;货币增长短期内对通货膨胀的作用不确定,而在中长期时间内货币扩张会引发通货膨胀。经济的增长并没有推动货币增长,经济增长在短期内导致通货膨胀,但在长期内经济增长对通货膨胀的影响基本不存在;通货膨胀对经济增长和货币增长的作用依状态而变化。     

基于调控方向差异的货币政策区域效应研究

实证研究结论表明:我国货币政策的作用真实表现为正向或负向货币供给冲击;正向或负向货币供给冲击对我国东部地区、东北地区、西部地区和中部地区的影响是不一样的,即存在紧缩性与扩张性货币政策区域效应;我国货币供给冲击是东部地区、东北地区和西部地区经济增长率的Granger原因,不是中部地区经济增长率的Granger原因;我国紧缩性与扩张性货币政策区域效应主要是与不同地区金融机构分布和货币政策传导渠道的不同有关。     

Educating limited resource older adults for better choices to lower risk of food insecurity

United States (U.S.) national and North Carolina state data on older adult food insecurity in combination with associated poor nutrition‐related health outcomes point to a critical need for interventions to improve their food security. Nearly 8% of North Carolinians aged 60 and older and 11% of those aged 50–59 are food insecure, placing North Carolina in the top ten states in the U.S. for food insecurity for both age groups. Therefore, the Better Choices intervention was designed to educate limited‐income older adults in ways to manage their meager resources to purchase more and healthier foods. The purpose of this study was to determine the effectiveness of the Better Choices intervention in improving the knowledge, attitude, and behavior of participants concerning their food money resource management. Older adults (n = 453) with ages ranging from 59 to over 90 years participated in 8 weeks of educational programming delivered by educators in 15 participating North Carolina counties. In a cross‐over program design participating counties were randomly assigned to two groups, to create a control for the food money resource management treatment. A three‐points‐in‐time survey supported longitudinal measurement. Independent samples t‐tests showed no significant differences between groups at baseline. Paired sample t‐test results show the intervention was effective with statistically significant improvement of participants' knowledge regarding preparing a healthy meal on a budget, beans as a low‐cost alternative to meat, and the use of unit pricing to compare products to identify the best value. Participant‐developed action plans reflected planned behavior change. Study results show this group of older adults were capable of and willing to adopt new behaviors for a healthier lifestyle. While not a representative sample, the broad applicability of adult learning and planned behavior theories underpinning the program lead us to conclude that the methods and theories applied in this intervention should be of use to educators and practitioners serving limited‐resource older adult populations.     

Developing a better understanding of the complexities of visitor loyalty to Karijini National Park,Western Australia

Visitor loyalty is essential for the future of parks; however our knowledge of it is poor and confounded by conceptualisation and measurement issues with loyalty often considered a single construct. Furthermore, previous research has focussed on loyalty to a single destination rather than loyalty to a park system. This paper analyses the loyalty intentions of visitors to Karijini National Park, Western Australia. Relationships between loyalty measures to this park and to parks generally are explored. Rather than a single construct, loyalty was evidenced by three dimensions within an increasing hierarchy of effort – a) visiting another park, b) referring and recommending, and c) advocating, paying, volunteering, and visiting again. Visitors who wanted access to friendly, helpful rangers were more likely to undertake loyalty behaviours requiring greater effort. Further refining loyalty's multiple dimensions is an important focus for future research complemented by recent efforts to match loyalty measures with actual visiting behaviour.     

P-Star模型与通货膨胀压力测量

估计通货膨胀压力的常用方法是运用实际产出与潜在产出之间的缺口同价格变化率之间的关系来进行的,这种方法在国内已经很好地得到了应用,国内也有学者运用货币流通速度与其趋势值之间的偏移率来测算通货膨胀压力,但20世纪90年代以来在国际上得到较为广泛应用的P-Star模型国内还没有尝试。对中国数据的实证分析表明,运用P-Star方程来估算通货膨胀压力的变化,可以为国家价格总水平的调控提供参考。     

中国货币供应、通货膨胀及经济增长关系实证研究

采用协整与方差分解的方法时中国货币供应、通货膨胀与经济增长的关系进行实证研究发现,通货膨胀与经济增长在短期和长期中作用关系相反,但都具有回归自然水平趋势,货币供应时通货膨胀和经济增长的影响具有滞后效应,长期内货币非中性。而通货膨胀和经济增长并不影响货币供应。一方面。应当采取措施降低货币供应增长率：另一方面,偏紧货币政策的滞后效应可能导致经济紧缩应当采取措施降低货币供应增长率,因此应谨慎调控宏观经济政策,以避免金融风险。     

2011年3季度银行问市场运行报告

2011年3季度，银行间市场平稳运行，主要特点是：资金面前紧后松，货币市场利率先扬后抑、震荡下行；银行间国债收益率曲线先升后降；人民币对美元汇率升值步伐加快，季末成交价格显著偏离中间价；利率互换成交量创新高；外汇掉期短期限融资功能更为明显，中长期限掉期点持续上行显示人民币升值预期减弱。