损失分布模型在操作风险中的应用分析

随着巴塞尔协议的公布,操作风险(Operational Risk)的量化模型已经成为银行业目前研究的主要课题。本文按照巴塞尔协议规定,利用损失分布方法(Loss Distribution Approach,LDA)来度量操作风险,这种方法的优点在于分别度量损失事件发生频度以及损失幅度,然后利用组合分布方法来研究一段时间内的累积损失分布。本文主要讨论在商业银行内部如何执行LDA以及引入操作风险在险值(Valueat Risk,VaR)的概念,并且介绍了能够反映损失分布的分布函数。同时按照巴塞尔协议公布的方法和策略,从损失事件类型、业务部门以及损失分布额度的估计方法探讨利用高级度量方法的可能性和现实性以及操作中的现实问题。     

The relationship between corporate social responsibility and shareholder value: an empirical test of the risk management hypothesis

Do shareholders gain when managers disperse corporate resources through activities classified as corporate social responsibility (CSR)? Strategy scholars have recently developed a theoretical model that links such activities to shareholder value when a firm suffers a negative event; we test key portions of this theory of the ‘insurance‐like’ property of CSR activity. We posit that such activity leads to positive attributions from stakeholders, who then temper their negative judgments and sanctions toward firms because of this goodwill. We extend the risk management model by theorizing that some types of CSR activities will be more likely to create goodwill and offer insurance‐like protection than other types. We delineate several firm and event specific characteristics that we expect to influence the link between CSR activities and an insurance effect. We then test our model using an event study of 178 negative legal/regulatory actions against firms throughout the 11 years from 1993–2003. We find that participation in institutional CSR activities—those aimed at a firm's secondary stakeholders or society at large—provides an ‘insurance‐like’ benefit, while participation in technical CSRs—those activities targeting a firm's trading partners—yields no such benefits. We conclude by considering the implications of our findings for future theorizing and research into the economic value of CSR engagement. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于业务事件上下文感知的物流跟踪系统研究

对物流中的信息跟踪模式进行了分析,从信息技术的角度对信息跟踪、信息处理及追踪流程等问题进行了探讨。构建了基于业务事件上下文感知的智能追踪系统的物流方案,并通过案例分析进行了验证。     

长期资产减值转回的市场反应——来自A股制造业上市公司经验证据

本文以新旧会计准则过渡期为背景,以长期资产减值转回为研究对象,实证研究了投资者对制造业上市公司长期资产减值转回的市场反应,研究发现:就整体而言,投资者无法判断长期资产减值转回是盈余管理还是未来价值的增加;但就大额样本而言,投资者则认为长期资产减值转回是由于盈余管理。     

家族企业创业导向探析-以浙江万事利集团为例

目前国内外有关创业导向的维度及其测量存在着差异,在一定程度上阻碍了公司创业理论的发展和实践创新。因此,文章通过案例分析,对家族企业创业导向的关键特征进行解析,探讨在我国情景下家族企业创业导向构念的维度结构及其各维度间的共变性问题,使相关构念更具有针对性也确保其适用性。      

The emotions of top managers and key persons in cross-border M&As: Evidence from a longitudinal case study

Building on prior research on emotions in M&A, this paper analyses the post-M&A emotions of top managers and key persons from the acquired company by examining what triggers emotions during the post-acquisition integration stage, and what the consequences of those emotions are. This study applies cognitive appraisal and affective event theories with empirical evidence based on a longitudinal, single case study of an Indian–Finnish acquisition. The main findings imply that M&As are very emotional for top managers and key persons. Our findings reveal that they experience a wide range of positive and negative emotions triggered by individual and company-level triggers. Interestingly various triggers can have different and opposite appraisal outcomes in the short and long-term. In addition, top managers and key persons are often restricted in the range of behavioural outcomes caused by emotions.     

Exports-led growth or growth-led exports in the case of China and Pakistan: An empirical investigation from the ARDL and Granger causality approach

There are various factors that determine and influence economic growth. From these, one of the most significant factors is exports, which play a vital role in the economic growth and development of a country. Trade theory states that exports enhance the growth of a domestic economy in various ways. This study attempts to empirically investigate the existence of the exports-led-growth (ELG) or growth-led-exports (GLE) hypotheses by adopting comparatively more contemporary techniques as compared to earlier classical approaches for China and Pakistan for the period of 1980 to 2015. The study found the existence of ELG for both China and Pakistan.     

Policy uncertainty and international financial markets: the case of Brexit

ABSTRACT

This study assesses the impact of the Brexit probability on both the UK and on international financial markets, for the first and the second statistical moments. As financial markets are by nature highly interlinked, one might expect that the uncertainty engendered by Brexit also has an impact on financial markets in several other countries. We first estimate the time-varying interactions between UK policy uncertainty, which to a large extent is attributed to uncertainty about Brexit and UK financial market volatilities. Second, we use two other measures of the perceived probability of Brexit before the referendum, namely daily data released by Betfair and results of polls published by Bloomberg. Based on these data sets, and using both panel and single-country SUR estimation methods, we analyse the Brexit effect on levels of stock returns, sovereign CDS, 10-year interest rates in 19 predominantly European countries, and those of the British pound and the euro. We show that Brexit-induced policy uncertainty will continue to cause instability in key financial markets and has the potential to damage the real economy in both the UK and other European countries. The main losers outside the UK are the ‘GIIPS’ economies: Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain.     

Shareholder wealth responses to European legislation on bank executive compensation

This paper uses an event study approach to investigate the shareholder wealth responses to European legislation on bank executive compensation. Using a sample of 124 banks over 2009–2010 and over 20 legislative and related events, we find that in early stages bank shareholders react positively to broad discussion at the EU level on executive pay. When plans to regulate the pay process are considered, however, this results in a negative stockholder reaction. We also find that large bank shareholders are most affected by remuneration policy.     

European bank stress test and sovereign exposures

We use an event study methodology to revisit the bank stress test conducted by the European Banking Authority in 2011. Instead of only considering the final results disclosure, we consider six key official announcements during the stress test. Our results indicate that abnormal returns reversed over the course of the stress test and that the emerging sovereign crisis contributed to the stock market perception of bank health.