城市应急物流虚拟联合体的构建框架

针对我国城市应急物流体系的特点及其发展中存在的问题,提出了一种基于应急物流虚拟联合体的、包括城市应急物流管理中心、应急物流中心、应急物资基层发放点在内的多级结构的协同运作模式,构建了一种面向应急物流虚拟联合体的智能化多级协作信息平台模型以提供技术支撑,并对该平台中主要子系统的功能结构进行了阐述,论证了其可行性。最后对信息平台建设中的注意事项进行了研究。     

我国城市化水平与区域经济增长差异实证研究

基于1989-2009年省级面板数据设定了协整模型,分析了我国城市化水平与区域经济增长的长期关系。结果显示,我国城市化水平与区域经济增长之间存在显著的正相关性,且两者之间存在长期稳定的协整关系。在总体上,城市化水平对经济增长的促进作用在不同区域间的差距较大,城市化水平对区域经济发展的影响排序依次为:东部、中部、东北部、西部。因此,在加快城市化进程中做好户籍制度改革,将有利于从根本上提高城市化水平,促进区域经济的增长,消除地区经济差距。     

基于动态事件调度仿真的高速铁路动车组运用计划计算机协同编制方法的研究

依据动车组运用的牵引动力与载客装置不可分离的原则,动车组挂运接续和列车运行线的时点是一致的,因此将这些时点作为变量,考虑动车组整备维修、动车组站段折返接续作业时间、列车运行线铺画约束、列车挂运匹配等条件,建立以动车组运用效率和列车运行计划均衡性为指标的基本模型,采用动态事件表调度方法实现可行方案编制,研究站间固定区段运用模式下,单基地多车种的动车组运用计划与成对列车运行计划协同编制问题。最后以京津客运专线实际条件模拟编制动车运用计划,以验证模型与算法的可行性。     

Optimum allocation in multivariate stratified random sampling: stochastic matrix mathematical programming

The allocation problem for multivariate stratified random sampling as a problem of stochastic matrix integer mathematical programming is considered, minimizing the estimated covariance matrix of estimated means subject to fixed cost or fixed total sample size. With these aims the asymptotic normality of sample covariance matrices for each strata is established. Some alternative approaches are suggested for its solution. An example is solved by applying the proposed techniques.     

Exchange Rate Choices of Microstates

In this paper I first explain why most microstates (countries with less than two million inhabitants) have gained independence only in the last 30 years. Despite the higher costs and risks microstates face, their ability to better accommodate local preferences, combined with a more integrated world economy, probably explains why there are now more benefits to independence. I explain why microstates at independence have chosen either dollarization, currency board arrangements, or fixed exchange rates rather than more flexible forms of exchange rate systems. I then, using the Geweke‐Hajivassiliou‐Keane multivariate normal simulator, model empirically the determinants of each of the different fixed exchange rate regimes in microstates and analyze the policy implications.     

MEASURING THE IMPACT OF EDUCATIONAL INTERVENTIONS ON THE ACADEMIC PERFORMANCE OF ACADEMIC DEVELOPMENT STUDENTS IN SECOND‐YEAR MICROECONOMICS

This paper analyses the impact of educational interventions made in the first‐ and second‐year microeconomics courses on academic development students' final mark in the second‐year course. It also addresses issues of methodology, specification, and statistical analysis with respect to other studies in the field. The results suggest that the educational interventions in the first‐year had a positive impact on the academic performance of the academic development cohort, relative to the mainstream cohort for the first period (2000‐2002). The results also suggest that the educational interventions introduced in the second period (2003‐2005), in the form of voluntary workshops, improved the academic performance of the academic development and mainstream cohorts.     

我国长三角地区国家区域政策效果评价研究——基于偏相关和多元分布滞后模型

文章利用长三角地区上海市、江苏省以及浙江省的经济增长数据,构建多元虚拟变量分布滞后模型对国家长三角地区的区域发展规划效果进行评价。研究结果表明国家长三角区域发展规划政策出台后,不同政策变量对三地市的经济增长的影响存在差别,其中中央补助收入在上海和江苏的经济增长弹性显著提高,但是中央补助收入对浙江省的经济增长促进作用有所下降,同时中央转移支付与税收返还政策效果存在时滞。最后提出了结构上调整国家区域发展规划政策等对策建议。     

中国节事旅游发展初探

随着中国经济的发展,旅游在人们的日常生活中已经占有非常重要的地位。人们对于旅游的品质要求也在不断提高,单纯的游玩活动已经不能满足游玩者的要求。节事旅游,正因为其特色鲜明,文化参与性强等特点越来越受到大家的喜爱。本文将对于中国节事旅游的发展做综合性的研究,侧重从宏观上分析中国的节事旅游活动。     

Growth in a Cross-section of Cities: Location,Increasing Returns or Random Growth?

Abstract

This article analyses empirically the main existing theories on income and population city growth: increasing returns to scale, locational fundamentals and random growth. To do this we consider a large database of urban, climatological and macroeconomic data from 1,173 US cities observed in 1990 and 2000. The econometric model is robust to the presence of spatial effects. Our analysis shows the existence of increasing returns and two distinct equilibria in per-capita income and population growth. We also find important differences in the structure of productive activity, unemployment rates and geographical location between cities in low-income and high-income regimes.