我国长三角地区国家区域政策效果评价研究——基于偏相关和多元分布滞后模型

文章利用长三角地区上海市、江苏省以及浙江省的经济增长数据,构建多元虚拟变量分布滞后模型对国家长三角地区的区域发展规划效果进行评价。研究结果表明国家长三角区域发展规划政策出台后,不同政策变量对三地市的经济增长的影响存在差别,其中中央补助收入在上海和江苏的经济增长弹性显著提高,但是中央补助收入对浙江省的经济增长促进作用有所下降,同时中央转移支付与税收返还政策效果存在时滞。最后提出了结构上调整国家区域发展规划政策等对策建议。     

中国节事旅游发展初探

随着中国经济的发展,旅游在人们的日常生活中已经占有非常重要的地位。人们对于旅游的品质要求也在不断提高,单纯的游玩活动已经不能满足游玩者的要求。节事旅游,正因为其特色鲜明,文化参与性强等特点越来越受到大家的喜爱。本文将对于中国节事旅游的发展做综合性的研究,侧重从宏观上分析中国的节事旅游活动。     

Growth in a Cross-section of Cities: Location,Increasing Returns or Random Growth?

Abstract

This article analyses empirically the main existing theories on income and population city growth: increasing returns to scale, locational fundamentals and random growth. To do this we consider a large database of urban, climatological and macroeconomic data from 1,173 US cities observed in 1990 and 2000. The econometric model is robust to the presence of spatial effects. Our analysis shows the existence of increasing returns and two distinct equilibria in per-capita income and population growth. We also find important differences in the structure of productive activity, unemployment rates and geographical location between cities in low-income and high-income regimes.     

融资融券对股价波动的影响——基于标的证券确定和调整的视角

基于标的证券确定和调整视角,利用沪市首批参与融资融券业务的50只股票的相关数据,采用事件分析法,文章实证研究了融资融券对股价的波动影响。研究结论发现:融资融券具有平抑股价,稳定市场作用。最后文章给出了建议。     

Measuring the Socio‐Economic Legacies of Mega‐events: Concepts,Propositions and Indicators

Legacies have become a key rationale underpinning the bidding process for hosting mega‐events. These long‐term effects are deemed to hold benefits and costs, and measurement is important. However, there is limited theory or empirical evidence on legacy impacts. In this article, the literature on legacies of mega‐events is reviewed and event tourism isolated to develop an interdisciplinary conceptual model to measure tourism legacies, and develop propositions on measurement issues. This paper develops a framework of key indicators, propositions and measures to evaluate socio‐economic legacies, which will support event organizers and decision makers to formulate policies for improving event legacies. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tourism as an economic development tool. Key factors

Tourism may serve as tool of economic development (ED). The aim of this article is to determine, through the analysis of determining factors identified in previous studies, which are the most important variables in channelling tourism growth into ED. Using a multivariate linear regression model, the main push and brake factors have been identified, for both developed and developing countries. It has been concluded that countries should maintain low initial provisions for CO₂ emissions, hospital beds, unemployment, energy without CO₂ emissions, and working population. It is also necessary to reduce conflict-related deaths. These results may be crucial in the decision-making processes implemented by policymakers and destination managers, given that they provide extremely useful information for the planning of their actions.     

Emotions in motion: tourist experiences in time and space

Issues of crime in a destination area affect real and perceived visitor safety; away from rare but high profile incidents such as terrorist attacks, visitor security is more likely to be affected by a lesser criminal activity. This paper contributes to our existing understanding of how tourism can be affected by criminal activity by selecting a definable geographical area and investigating the dimensions, scale and nature of visitor-related crime and the perceptions, attitudes and behaviours of visitors in relation to safety issues. The results indicate that, although visitors believed the destination to be a safe one, the statistics indicated that they were more susceptible to crimes of dishonesty, in particular vehicle-related theft, and the times and places they were at risk evidenced different patterns to residents. With visitors accounting for less than 10% of the total population, these differences are not immediately apparent. Visitors are not homogenous and distinct groupings based on perceptions, attitudes and behaviours were found. TheREFore, there is a requirement to examine how crime is impacting on visitors by distinguishing them from the overall crime figures, but measures to protect visitors also have to be tailored to take cognisance of typologies of visitors.     

Factors influencing cultural event tourism in Nelson Mandela Bay,South Africa

ABSTRACT

Cultural tourism has established a market share of approximately 20% in the tourism sector globally. In addition, it fosters socio-economic benefits for a destination and its residents. This study explores residents’ attitudes towards cultural events in Nelson Mandela Bay (NMB), South Africa, to enhance the destination image and induce stakeholder engagement. In this study, 3659 residents of NMB either completed an online questionnaire or a face-to-face interview. The results indicate that the residents of NMB have a positive attitude to cultural events. Notably, the demographic profile of the respondents is representative of the country and may be transferred to a national level to assist the South African tourism industry. The findings clarify insights to the market needs and cultural differences that may be used to tailor unique selling propositions in culturally diverse destinations.     

A tentative study on security management based on dangerous goods road transportation

The paper conducts analysis on the causes of dangerous goods road transportation accidents by applying analytic technique of security system science - Event Tree Analysis （ETA）. By computing minimum cut and minimal path set of event tree and the important level of elementary event, the paper elicits the results that the factors of causing road transportation accident are multiple and its hazard is great while the paper also elicits the sorting of structural important level of elementary event. The paper offers the security countermeasures for dangerous goods road transportation which plays a vital role in safeguarding dangerous goods road transportation security.