News or Noise? Using Twitter to Identify and Understand Company‐specific News Flow

This study presents a methodology for identifying a broad range of real‐world news events based on microblogging messages. Applying computational linguistics to a unique dataset of more than 400,000 S&P 500 stock‐related Twitter messages, we distinguish between good and bad news and demonstrate that the returns prior to good news events are more pronounced than for bad news events. We show that the stock market impact of news events differs substantially across different categories.     

Macro Liquidity Risk,Money Growth,and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns: The Case of Korea

According to the homogeneity of money holding purpose, we decompose the broad money M2 into an underlying and a non-underlying part and propose innovations in future non-underlying M2 growth as a proxy for macro liquidity. In both the cross-sectional regression tests and the GMM tests, we find that risk related to innovations in future non-underlying M2 growth is strongly significantly priced in Korea, after controlling for the well-known risk factors and other macroeconomic variables. Meanwhile, risk related to innovations in future aggregate or underlying M2 growth is insignificantly priced. These results indicate that non-underlying M2 growth more directly affects macro liquidity than does aggregate or underlying M2 growth.     

Unconditional tests for association in 2 × 2 contingency tables in the total sum fixed design

The asymptotic approach and Fisher's exact approach have often been used for testing the association between two dichotomous variables. The asymptotic approach may be appropriate to use in large samples but is often criticized for being associated with unacceptable high actual type I error rates for small to medium sample sizes. Fisher's exact approach suffers from conservative type I error rates and low power. For these reasons, a number of exact unconditional approaches have been proposed, which have been seen to be generally more powerful than exact conditional counterparts. We consider the traditional unconditional approach based on maximization and compare it to our presented approach, which is based on estimation and maximization. We extend the unconditional approach based on estimation and maximization to designs with the total sum fixed. The procedures based on the Pearson chi‐square, Yates's corrected, and likelihood ratio test statistics are evaluated with regard to actual type I error rates and powers. A real example is used to illustrate the various testing procedures. The unconditional approach based on estimation and maximization performs well, having an actual level much closer to the nominal level. The Pearson chi‐square and likelihood ratio test statistics work well with this efficient unconditional approach. This approach is generally more powerful than the other p‐value calculation methods in the scenarios considered.     

衍生交易、风险管理与公司治理——中航油事件反思

本文以中航油巨亏事件为例，分析了跨国企业的衍生交易、风险管理与公司治理之间的关系。研究发现，中航油巨亏事件的根本动囚是对衍生金融工具认识不足，以致没能很好遵循国际会计准则惯例并导致投资风险的增加。同时，中航油自身在企业风险管理上的弱化，又逐渐滋生了公司治理的内生性问题，即内控机制和监控机制的缺乏。因此，对企业风险的有效管理和公司治理的有效监督是解决当前跨国企业投资风险的最佳办法。     

Estimating the Structure of Market Reaction to News: Information Events and Lumber Futures Prices

We develop a new event-study technique, the distributional event response model (DERM), appropriate to relatively slowly evolving information events. We apply the model to twelve years of daily lumber futures prices and analyze the effects of three different types of information releases: ( a ) monthly housing starts estimates, ( b ) aperiodic administrative and judicial announcements about U.S.–Canada trade disputes, and ( c ) novel and unprecedented court decisions related to the Endangered Species Act (ESA). The information releases are different in ways that predict their relative speeds of impoundment in prices. We find that housing start events are absorbed more quickly than trade events, which are absorbed more quickly than ESA events.     

The recurrence of financial distress: A survival analysis

Companies often suffer periods of financial distress before filing for bankruptcy. Unlike one-off bankruptcies, financial distress can occur repeatedly within the same individual firm. This paper is focused on the recurrence of financial distress and studies the Chinese stock market, where Special Treatment – an official indicator of financial distress – can be repeatedly applied to a listed company. We employ a stratified hazard model to predict the probability of subsequent distress with variables, including duration dependency, event-based factors, institutional variables, financial ratios, market-based variables and macroeconomic conditions. Our empirical results show that accounting and market-based variables have limited power in predicting the recurrence of distress, whereas the duration of recovery, restructuring events and their interaction terms with the accounting and macroeconomic factors affect the recurrent risk significantly. Tested on out-of-time samples, our proposed hazard models show a robust performance in the prediction of recurrent risk over time.     

Expected termination times of progressively Type-I censored step-stress accelerated life tests under continuous and interval inspections

A step-stress accelerated life test is a special life test where test units are subjected to higher stress levels than normal operating conditions so that the information on the lifetime parameters of a test unit can be obtained more quickly in a shorter period of time. Also, progressive Type-I censoring is a generalized form of time censoring where functional test units are withdrawn successively from the life test at some prefixed nonterminal time points. Despite its flexibility and efficient utilization of the available resources, progressively censored sampling has not gained much popularity due to its analytical complexity compared to the conventional censoring schemes. In particular, understanding the mean completion time of a life test is of great practical interest in order to design and manage the life test optimally under frequent budgetary and time constraints. In this work, the expected termination time of a general k-level step-stress accelerated life test under progressive Type-I censoring is derived using a recursive relationship of the stochastic termination time based on the conditional block independence. To be comprehensive, two different modes of failure inspections are considered: continuous inspection, where the exact failure times are observed, and interval inspection, where the exact failure times are not available but only the number of failures that occurred.     

Innovation of IT metasystems by means of event-driven paradigm using QDMS

Globalisation of world economy brings new and more complex demands to business systems. In order to respond to these trends, business systems apply new paradigms that are inevitable reflecting on management metasystems – quality assurance (QA), as well as on information technology (IT) metasystems. Small and medium enterprises (in particular in food industry) do not have possibilities to access external resources to the extent that could provide adequate keeping up with these trends. That raises the question how to enhance synergetic effect of interaction between existing QA and IT metasystems in order to overcome resource gap and achieve set goals by internal resources. The focus of this article is to propose a methodology for utilisation of potential of quality assurance document management system (QDMS) as prototypical platform for initiating, developing, testing and improving new functionalities that are required by IT as support for buiness system management. In that way QDMS plays a role of catalyst that not only accelerates but could also enhance selectivity of the reactions of QA and IT metasystems and direct them on finding new functionalities based on event-driven paradigm. The article tries to show the process of modelling, development and implementation of a possible approach to this problem through conceptual survey and practical solution in the food industry.     

The impacts of public news announcements on intraday implied volatility dynamics

We examine the responses of intraday option-implied volatilities to scheduled announcements of macroeconomic indicators. The increase in implied volatility around macroeconomic news announcements is more pronounced for puts than for calls and is stronger for announcements made during trading hours than for those made during nontrading hours. These effects are also more pronounced in the crisis and postcrisis periods than in the precrisis period. Monetary policy announcements have a more substantial impact on volatility than other announcements have, even after controlling for news surprise components. The impact appears to be greater for policy rate hikes than for policy rate cuts.