Oil Price Uncertainty

The theories of investment under uncertainty and real options predict that uncertainty about, for example, oil prices will tend to depress current investment. We reinvestigate the relationship between the price of oil and investment, focusing on the role of uncertainty about oil prices. We find that volatility in oil prices has had a negative and statistically significant effect on several measures of investment, durables consumption, and aggregate output. We also find that accounting for the effects of oil price volatility tends to exacerbate the negative dynamic response of economic activity to a negative oil price shock, while dampening the response to a positive oil price shock.     

On Bayesian selection of the best normal population using theKullback–Leibler divergence measure

In this paper, we use the Bayesian approach to study the problem of selecting the best population among k different populations π₁, ..., π_k (k≥2) relative to some standard (or control) population π₀. Here, π₀ is considered to be the population with the desired characteristics. The best population is defined to be the one which is closest to the ideal population π₀ . The procedure uses the idea of minimizing the posterior expected value of the Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence measure of π _i from π₀. The populations under consideration are assumed to be multivariate normal. An application to regression problems is also presented. Finally, a numerical example using real data set is provided to illustrate the implementation of the selection procedure.     

Measuring Career Mobility: An Empirical Comparison of Six Mobility Indexes

The current paper presents six indexes that can be used to characterize the course of a career during a particular time interval, respectively, (1) the total number of transitions during that interval; (2) the number of positive transitions; (3) the number of negative transitions; (4) the subtraction of the number of negative transitions from the number of positive transitions; (5) the relative uncommonness of the transitions; and (6) the subtraction of the number of negative transitions from the number of positive transitions, weighted by their uncommonness. Advantages and disadvantages of these six indexes are discussed. Further, an empirical example is presented that draws on data from a sample of 357 employed Dutch youth. Finally, our approach is compared to previous approaches (event-centered methods, such as survival analysis, and career-centered methods, such as clustering techniques). It is concluded that our simple approach complements these other approaches well.     

A psychological typology and its relationship to entrepreneurial success

This research indicates that typologies covering multiple types of entrepreneurs are applicable within the realm of entrepreneurial personality. Four such personality types - personal achievers, real managers, expert idea generators, and empathic supersalespeople - are identified, and shown to be related to subsequent entrepreneurial success. The evidence indicates that entrepreneurial talent may be gauged in terms of the number of these patterns present in a given individual. Those with more patterns are more likely to achieve a substantial level of success. These results have implications for anyone whose work touches upon the field of entrepreneurship. This paper is concerned primarily with how the typology was developed and how the relationship of each type to entrepreneurial success was established. The career routes that fit each type (and which must be followed to obtain success) are considered.     

A visualization tool for exploratory analysis of cyclic multivariate data

This paper presents an interactive visualization tool for the qualitative exploration of multivariate data that may exhibit cyclic or periodic behavior. Glyphs are used to encode each multivariate data point, and linear, stacked, and spiral glyph layouts are employed to help convey both intra-cycle and inter-cycle relationships within the data. Users may interactively select glyph and layout types, modify cycle lengths and the number of cycles to display, and select the specific data dimensions to be included. We validate the usefulness of the system with case studies and describe our future plans for expanding the system's capabilities.     

Macroprudential Stress-Testing Practices of Central Banks in Central and Southeastern Europe: Comparison and Challenges Ahead

This paper reviews and compares stress-testing practices of central banks in Central and Southeastern Europe (CSEECBs) and outlines challenges in the area of stress testing going forward. The authors, focusing their comparison on CSEECBs, construct the baseline and stress scenarios, map macroeconomic scenarios and microeconomic factors to risk factors, calculate risk exposures to different risk indicators, and estimate outcome indicators to inform macroprudential policy. The main challenges going forward concern data reliability, consideration of quantitative microprudential indicators, incorporation of feedback effects in stress tests, institutionalization of macroprudential policy responses to alarming stress-test results, and information exchange for better cross-border supervision.     

Market Segmentation of Golf Event Spectators Using Leisure Benefits

The proliferation of golf events has provided increased opportunities to watch professional golf tournaments. The purpose of this study is to examine a variety of leisure benefits sought by Korean golf event spectators and provide useful marketing strategies to fulfill their needs. Within the contexts of leisure benefits, different individuals tend to assign different meanings to the same leisure experience. In this sense, golf event spectators are likely to pursue heterogeneous leisure benefits from their engagement. This study identified four distinct spectator groups (i.e., escape seekers, exercise seekers, interest seekers, and excitement seekers) and uncovered significant differences among these segments. Results provided empirical support that event-based sport tourism marketers need to implement diverse strategies to increase and reinforce their customer base.     

Event studies: A methodology review

Originally developed as a statistical tool for empirical research in accounting and finance, event studies have since migrated to other disciplines as well, including economics, history, law, management, marketing, and political science. Despite the elegant simplicity of a standard event study, variations in methodology and their relative merits continue to attract attention in the literature. This paper reviews some of the fundamental topics in short‐term event study methodology, with an attempt to add new perspectives to some pressing topics.     

TESTING FOR PURCHASING POWER PARITY AND UNCOVERED INTEREST PARITY IN THE PRESENCE OF MONETARY AND EXCHANGE RATE REGIME SHIFTS

Testing for purchasing power parity (PPP) and uncovered interest parity (UIP) has been the focus of many empirically oriented studies. While these simple economic theories of exchange rate and interest rate determination are theoretically attractive, the empirical support for these equilibrium conditions is at best mixed. Many potential reasons have been cited in the literature for the failure of such studies, ranging from market imperfections to inappropriate modelling strategies. The current state‐of‐the‐art procedure involves testing for two cointegrating vectors in a multivariate error correction model which may be economically identified as the PPP and UIP relations. However, such a procedure does not account for policy regime shifts which distort the underlying PPP and UIP relations. In this paper, a Markov‐switching vector error correction model (VECM) is considered for time series data in which monetary and exchange rate regime shifts are known to be present. Weak evidence in favour of PPP and UIP is established in a standard linear VECM, although the residuals of this model indicate that it is inappropriate in terms of functional form. The Markov‐switching VECM, however, provides convincing evidence in favour of both the PPP and UIP relations and a marked improvement in the residual distributions.     

Is the European Capital Market Ready for the Single Currency?

This paper defines, and investigates the extent of, capital market integration in the European Ecu government bond market sector utilising Johansen's (1992) multivariate analysis. Evidence suggests the yield system is driven by a unique common trend, although we reject the zero-sum restriction on the cointegrating vector. The former finding is consistent with our definition of full Ecu capital market integration, the latter is not, although it is explainable by failure of the expectations hypothesis. Our results support market utilisation of the extant Ecu yield curve as the initial benchmark for pricing euro-denominated debt securities following stage III EMU.