A Conversation With Paul Embrechts

Paul Embrechts was born in Schoten, Belgium, on 3 February 1953. He holds a Licentiaat in Mathematics from Universiteit Antwerpen (1975) and a DSc from Katholieke Universiteit Leuven (1979), where he was also a Research Assistant from 1975 to 1983. He then held a lectureship in Statistics at Imperial College, London (1983–1985) and was a Docent at Limburgs Universitair Centrum, Belgium (1985–1989) before joining ETH Zürich as a Full Professor of Mathematics in 1989, where he remained until his retirement as an Emeritus in 2018. A renowned specialist of extreme-value theory and quantitative risk management, he authored or coauthored nearly 200 scientific papers and five books, including the highly influential ‘Modelling of Extremal Events for Insurance and Finance’ (Springer, 1997) and ‘Quantitative Risk Management: Concepts, Techniques and Tools’ (Princeton University Press, 2005, 2015). He served in numerous editorial capacities, notably as Editor-in-Chief of the ASTIN Bulletin (1996–2005). Praised for his natural leadership and exceptional communication skills, he helped to bridge the gap between academia and industry through the foundation of RiskLab Switzerland and his sustained leadership for nearly 20 years. He gave numerous prestigious invited and keynote lectures worldwide and served as a member of the board of, or consultant for, various banks, insurance companies and international regulatory authorities. His work was recognised through several visiting positions, including at the Oxford-Man Institute, and many awards. He is, inter alia, an Elected Fellow of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (1995) and the American Statistical Association (2014), an Honorary Fellow of the Institute and the Faculty of Actuaries (2000), Honorary Member of the Belgian (2010) and French (2015) Institute of Actuaries and was granted four honorary degrees (University of Waterloo, 2007; Heriot-Watt University, 2011; Université catholique de Louvain, 2012; City, University of London, 2017). The following conversation took place in Paul's office at ETH Zürich, 17–18 December 2018.     

Uncertainty and herding behavior: evidence from cryptocurrencies

The aim of this study is to examine the existence of herding behavior in the cryptocurrency market under uncertainty by employing cross-sectional absolute deviation (CSAD) of returns, ordinary least squares (OLS), generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) methods and Time-Varying Markov-Switching (TV-MS) model for both overall sample and sub-periods which was determined based on the results of Quandt-Andrews and Bai-Perron breakpoint tests. We utilized the daily data of the 14 leading cryptocurrencies in terms of closing price, market cap and transaction volume. We also used dummy variables to analyze whether or not an asymmetric behavior occurred during the "up and down" market periods. Our results for the overall sample refer to an anti-herding behavior in each model. However, the results of the TV-MS model for the 3rd sub-period (2/28/2017−1/16/2018) imply the existence of a herding behavior in the low volatility regime, an anti-herding behavior occurred during the high volatility regime and the effect of uncertainty was significant on the anti-herding behavior. Finally, our results suggest that there was no significant asymmetric behavior during the "up and down" market periods.     

Oil price shocks,geopolitical risks,and green bond market dynamics

This research explores the causal relation among oil price, geopolitical risks, and green bond index in the United States from December 2013 to January 2019. Unlike the conventional linear model specification used in earlier works, we evaluate causal relations based on Granger-causality in quantile analysis. Our empirical results reveal unidirectional Granger-causality from geopolitical risk to oil price at the extreme quantiles. We also observe a significant bi-directional causality from oil price to green bond index for the lower quantiles. Findings also reveal causality from geopolitical risk to green bond index in the lower quantiles of the distribution. Therefore, knowledge of these causal relationships can help policy makers to evaluate and implement effective policies to prevent sudden and substantial oil price shocks and geopolitical risk.     

土地革命时期中国共产党的财政思想研究*

在中国共产党诞生百年之际，在中国社会经济转型升级的今天，在财政已经上升为国家治理基础和重要支柱的背景下，研究和总结中国共产党在土地革命战争时期的财政思想具有重要的现实指导意义。思想根源于现实也反映现实，土地革命时期特定的社会政治经济背景孕育了中国共产党早期的财政思想，具体包括财政收入、财政支出和财政管理三大方面。这三个方面的思想密切关联，初步形成了中国共产党新民主主义革命早期传统财政学的雏形，构成了新中国社会主义财政学的重要基础，对于我国当今财政工作和现代财政制度建设具有重要的现实指导意义。     

Big data tools for Islamic financial analysis

Behavioural science states that emotions, principles and the manner of thinking can affect the behaviour of individuals and even investors in their decision making on financial markets. In this paper, we have tried to measure the investor sentiment by three means of big data. The first is based on a search query of a list of words related to Islamic context. The second is inferred from the engagement degree on social media. The last measure of sentiment is built, based on the Twitter API classified into positive and negative directions by a machine learning algorithm based on the naive Bayes method. Then, we investigate whether these sensations and emotions have an impact on the market sentiment and the price fluctuations by means of a vector autoregression model and Granger causality analysis. In the final step, we apply the agent‐based simulation by means of the sequential Monte Carlo method with the control of our Twitter measure on Islamic index returns. We show, then, that the three social media sentiment measures present a remarkable impact on the contemporaneous and lagged returns of the different Islamic assets studied. We also give an estimation of the parameters of the latent variables relative to the agent model studied.     

Accessibility of financial services and household consumption in China: Evidence from micro data

Access to finance has embraced by policymakers as an important tool for promoting inclusive development and achieving long-run financial security, while most studies provide macro-perspective evidence. Fewer yet, have taken into the additional role that digital finance may be playing. In this paper, we combine access to formal finance and digital finance into one framework. Based on the 2015 China Household Finance Survey data, we measure access to financial services from a microscopic perspective and construct a digital finance indicator. We then present evidence that both access to formal finance and digital finance significantly promote households’ consumption, and these effects are much larger for rural households and poorer households in China. Our finding also lend support to the conjecture that digital finance is more beneficial for inclusive development.     

Good debts,bad debts: Microcredit and managing debt in rural south India

This paper engages with debates around microcredit, once a development success story, but now much critiqued. Arguing that microcredit can only be understood within the wider context of debt, we draw on ethnographic material from two villages in Tamil Nadu, to examine how microcredit through self‐help groups sits within a broader context of indebtedness among the rural labouring classes. We describe patterns and sources of borrowing among the poor, the ways in which debts are managed, negotiated and settled within households and the ways in which the management of debt is mediated by gender, caste, class and aspiration. The paper calls for a more nuanced understanding of debt: some debts are seen as ‘good’ and others as ‘bad’. We explore the ways in which microcredit, channelled through self‐help groups, is—against much contemporary criticism—perceived by women borrowers in our study villages as a source of ‘good debt’ and praised as an enabling factor in their everyday household management as well as in aspirations for mobility and development. We also argue that microcredit can have positive impacts by enabling social investments that enhance status and reduce dependency.     

Dividend policy and investor pressure

The economics of dividend policy has focused on the single tight narrative that dividends keep managers honest, mitigating concerns that they over-invest. This article provides a critique of that agency narrative, arguing that pressure from short-term focused investors, executives and board members pushes the firm into preemptive actions of returning too much cash via dividends. We analyze three channels of influence for investor pressure through 1) threat of takeovers, 2) shareholder value oriented corporate governance, measured by director independence and board equity incentives, and 3) trading and institutional ownership patterns. We find that firms adopt a higher dividend payout to discourage takeover bids. Also, FTSE 100 firms, that are most focused on shareholder value governance in the form of equity-based compensation and a higher share of independent directors, display a higher dividend payout. Frequency of trading and ownership by transient investors seeking current profits also predict increased dividend payout. Traditional agency theory, focused on dividends as a tool for managerial discipline, is not strongly supported by the results, which rather support a narrative of short-term investor pressure on firms irrespective of investment opportunities.     

当前金融秩序混乱成因及其治理

金融改革和发展过程中存在的恶意逃废债务、违规经营、诈骗和恶性竞争等问题,已严重影响了经济和社会的发展。因此,必须深入分析其产生的原因,采取综合措施加以治理。