Credit risk pricing and the rationality of lending decision-making within dual banking systems: A parametric approach

The reduction of non-performing loans, and making correct provisions for them, plays a primary role in the management and minimization of banking credit risk. However, these actions depend primarily upon the cost at which banks may dispose of these bad loans. Hence, this study aims to perceive the price of banks’ credit risk via estimating the shadow price of non-performing loans. We assess and compare the perceived price of the credit risk of Islamic and conventional banks operating in 9 countries from the Middle East and Asia, using a quadratic directional distance function. Following this, we evaluate the impact of different settings of directional vectors on shadow prices by conducting a risk-sensitivity analysis. Applying bootstrap regression, the factors affecting NPLs’ prices are further investigated. The paper concludes that the estimation of the shadow prices of bad loans can provide important elements in favor of credit risk management and, therefore, credit risk mitigation.     

Was the expansion of housing credit in Japan good or bad?

This paper shows, using data from the Family Income and Expenditure Survey, that housing credit has become increasingly available over time in Japan, especially since 2000, and that this has made it easier for Japanese households to purchase housing and enabled them to do so at an earlier age. However, it also shows that the greater availability of housing credit has increased households’ housing loan repayment burden, which has resulted in their cutting back on their other consumption expenditures and created the potential for retirement insecurity. Another concern is that the increasing availability of housing credit has been accompanied by a pronounced shift from fixed-rate to variable-rate housing loans. This is cause for concern given the low level of financial literacy that prevails among the Japanese population and the likelihood that interest rates on variable-rate housing loans will be raised sooner or later as monetary policy is tightened.     

The reduction cost of nonperforming loan: evidence from China’s commercial bank

The nonperforming loans (NPLs) are co-generated by creating the profit in a bank, and this article build a joint production model to measure the reduction cost of nonperforming cost. By using a data set of China’s 13 commercial banks, the conclusions show that the reduction cost of NPLs is lower, which suggests that it is not a good choice for China’s commercial bank to hold the NPLs.     

涉农贷款中保证担保的法律思考

我国农村信贷发展中,第三方的保证担保发挥着积极作用。然而,在涉农贷款实践中,保证担保制度仍存在许多问题:农户联保贷款虽得到了广泛的推广,但仍存在诸多不足有待进一步完善;作为农村重要组织的村民委员会的保证人资格问题仍存在争议,需要立法予以规范;保证担保公示制度的不健全,增加了涉农贷款的风险,亟待建立有效的保证担保公示制度。     

资本约束背景下定向降准对企业信贷的定向引导效果

2017年,央行将普惠金融和定向降准相结合,定向降准能否精准引流决定着政策的成败。基于上市公司2011年至2019年的面板数据,采用双重差分法检验定向降准是否能够实现其政策目标,定向向三农和小微企业引导信贷资源,并用三重差分法引入资本约束这一调节变量,检验资本约束的增强是否对定向降准的实施效果有影响。结果表明:定向降准能够达到政策目标,增加三农和小微企业可获得的信贷资源,此外资本约束对定向降准的实施效果无显著影响。     

乡村振兴金融服务中涉农贷款增长放缓问题调查与思考——以安徽为例

在当前乡村振兴金融服务中涉农贷款增长放缓问题突出。通过对安徽省数据进行分析和重点调研省内8个地市有关情况,我们认为导致涉农贷款增长放缓的原因是多方面的,既有需求下降的原因,也有供给不足的问题,此外统计范围变化和不良贷款处置也对涉农贷款增长产生了影响。针对涉农信贷中存在的问题,本文提出了加强涉农金融产品创新、加大不良贷款处置、强化风险分担、避免政策"一刀切"和完善统计制度等相关政策建议。     

商业银行信用风险与宏观经济——基于压力测试的研究

本文采用压力测试框架,研究了宏观经济波动对商业银行信用风险的影响。文章以不良贷款率度量信用风险,以名义GDP增长率、广义货币供应量（M2）增速、居民消费价格指数（CPI）以及房地产销售价格指数作为宏观经济变量,建立了合适的宏观压力测试模型。在GDP增速放缓、CPI上升、M2增速下降的压力情景下,预测了2011年第一季度到第四季度的不良贷款率的变化路径。实证结果表明在压力情景下商业银行的不良贷款率将会显著上升。     

新型信贷模式下完善农村担保贷款机制的思考

农村经济发展的不平衡制约了现行传统农村信贷投放的规模和效益,而新的联保贷款和担保贷款模式既不需农户的实物抵押,也部分规避了信贷双方信息不对称的风险。要完善农村担保贷款制度,应采取措施积极扩大贷款担保主体;发挥政府对贷款的引导和保障功能;拓展涉农企业对农村信贷的担保职能;完善农村信贷激励机制;大力拓展对"三农"的金融保险业务;建立农村基层干部对农贷的奖励和责任机制。     

银团贷款在控制政府融资平台风险中的应用——基于模糊综合风险评价的分析

地方政府融资平台信息不透明、治理结构不健全等情况给金融机构信贷风险控制带来挑战.银团贷款因为能提高信息共享、遏制信贷欺诈、分散信贷风险,所以能对控制集团客户风险发挥积极作用.可以模糊综合评价模型为基础,分析政府融资平台引入银团贷款模式后的风险评价,为控制地方政府融资平台信贷风险提供思路.     

农业信贷对我国农业经济增长贡献的实证分析

文章利用面板数据基础上的随机效果模型对2000￣2003年间我国农业信贷对农业经济增长的贡献作出实证分析。研究结果表明,我国农业信贷与农业经济增长之间存在正相关关系,增加农业信贷投入,可以提高农业产出水平。因此应不断改善农业信贷环境,增加农业信贷供给,以促进农业产出的增加。