企业的利润结构与可持续增长 ——基于A股竞争性上市公司的经验证据

企业的可持续增长是社会经济可持续发展的基础,企业的可持续性增长能力与利润总额和利润构成密切相关.在新企业会计准则下,利润总额由核心利润、资产减值损失、公允价值变动损益、投资损益、营业外收支净额等五个部分构成,利润总额不同构成部分的来源不一样,稳定性和持久性也不一样.实证研究发现,盈利对企业增长的可持续性具有正面影响,利润总额的不同构成部分会对企业增长的可持续产生不同影响,利润结构可以提供有关企业可持续增长的增量信息,新企业会计准则下利润表项目的调整变化提高了利润表的信息含量.     

水土保持研究综述

水土流失严重地威胁着人类的生存与发展,已引起全世界的关注。本文简要地介绍了水土流失及水土保持的概况,对发达国家和发展中国家的水土保持研究的基本情况、研究方向和重要成果进行了详细的阐述,并对今后我国水土保持的研究方向,提出了自己的见解。     

Multivariate Cox Hidden Markov models with an application to operational risk

ABSTRACT

Modeling multivariate time-series aggregate losses is an important actuarial topic that is very challenging due to the fact that losses can be serially dependent with heterogeneous dependence structures across loss types and business lines. In this paper, we investigate a flexible class of multivariate Cox Hidden Markov Models for the joint arrival process of loss events. Some of the nice properties possessed by this class of models, such as closed-form expressions, thinning properties and model versatility are discussed in details. We provide the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for efficient model calibration. Applying the proposed model to an operational risk dataset, we demonstrate that the model offers sufficient flexibility to capture most characteristics of the observed loss frequencies. By modeling the log-transformed loss severities through mixture of Erlang distributions, we can model the aggregate losses. Finally, out-of-sample testing shows that the proposed model is adequate to predict short-term future operational risk losses.     

八项计提与公司盈余管理的实证研究

本文以2001-2003年亏损上市公司作为样本,研究亏损公司如何利用八项计提进行盈余管理。实证结果发现扭亏公司在扭亏前一年多计提减值准备,而在扭亏当年大额冲销减值准备的现象。扣除减值准备的影响,扭亏公司中将有72%样本不能扭亏。     

Why is credit-to-GDP a good measure for setting countercyclical capital buffers?

We examine banks’ loan losses in Europe in 1982–2012 using a nonlinear three-factor model that takes into account output growth, real interest rate, and the ratio of private credit to GDP relative to its trend (i.e., “excessive indebtedness”). We find that a drop in output has an intensified impact on loan losses if the private sector is excessively indebted. Because increased bank credit risk should be matched with higher bank capital, the result motivates the Basel III's countercyclical capital buffers as a function of private indebtedness relative to its trend. The result also helps to explain differences in the amount of loan losses in different recessions across time and across countries. The model also indicates that low interest rates during the recent recession have clearly mitigated loan losses.     

公允价值计量、资产价值变动与审计收费——基于2009—2012年沪深上市公司的经验证据

公允价值计量具有价值相关性,但也存在资产估价的风险性,这一会计估计风险对以风险成本为基础的审计定价及其变化至关重要。以后金融危机时期2009--2012年沪深上市公司的数据为样本,实证研究公允价值计量下的资产价值变动对审计收费的影响,结果显示：持有资产价值变动总体和公允价值变动损益、资产减值损失分项均显著正向影响审计收费,这表明持有资产价值变动幅度越大,审计收费越高;在持有资产价值变动总体正向影响审计收费的强度逐年显著增强的情况下,公允价值变动损益对审计收费正向影响的显著性提升,但是影响强度下降;资产减值损失对审计收费正向影响的强度和显著性均逐年提升,这表明审计收费蕴含公允价值估计风险和资产计价的公允性。     

厘清“公允价值变动损益”科目学习中的误区

为与国际会计准则接轨并提高会计信息质量,新准则中引入了公允价值计量属性,来体现资产和负债的内在价值。本文以金融工具的确认和计量中的交易性金融资产为例,针对“公允价值变动损益”科目学习中存在的误区进行分析,让初学者掌握公允价值计量下核算金融资产期末价值和企业利税的方法,为相关信息使用者提供真实有用的会计信息。     

旅游开发损益和风险评价的初步探讨--以白潭湖开发为例

旅游开发既有收益,也有损失和风险,但国内各级政府和开发商往往夸大收益,强调效益,忽视风险与损失,更缺乏系统的损益评价方法及风险评估办法。本文在论述了旅游开发损益评价和风险评估重要性的基础上。结合白潭湖旅游开发规划实践,融合了环境经济学、资源经济学和生态经济学等最新研究成果,探讨了旅游开发损益评价的方法,讨论了风险评估的内容和步骤。实践证明,对于任何旅游开发来说,风险分析和损益评估都是必要的,也是可行的。     

信贷损失准备计提的理论分析

本文在预期损失与损失准备概念的基础上,通过对贷款价值、预期损失与违约升水之间关系的分析提出了信贷损失准备计提的理论与方法,指出基于未来现金流量折现法的信贷准备计提方法更能反映贷款的真实价值。最后结合银行信贷损失准备计提的实践,对理论方法与实践中的作法进行了简要的评析。     

Consideration Set:

Consideration set studies have been confined to consumer goods purchases under the developed country context. This research studied the consideration set during agricultural input purchase under a developing country context. Though a farmer-consumer is assumed to be lacking the knowledge to form the consideration sets, the results show that these buyers form consideration sets similar to those under the consumer goods buying situations in the developed countries and these were influenced positively by the economic risk and negatively by the level of education.