Competition in railway monopolies

The transformation of railways from monopolies to markets open for internal competition is described and explained in a theoretical framework, and a model for the evaluation of the transformation’s impact on efficiency is developed. Using the model in an empirical study of the Swedish railway sector, it is found that external competitive pressure is strong in most supply segments and, focusing on loss of scale advantages, that the transformation will result in significant costs. Comparing the potential for gains by competition against the costs, it is concluded that increased efficiency by internal competition only seems possible to achieve for two train products: domestic combined transport and dedicated trains (both freight services).     

风暴潮灾害经济损失评估分析——以山东省为例

风暴潮灾害已成为目前致灾最严重的海洋灾害,合理评估风暴潮灾害经济损失是灾害管理的重要方面,对于防灾减灾及规划建设具有重要的研究意义。考虑到灾害系统的复杂性,间接经济损失往往难以统计,本文运用投入产出方法,采用山东省沿海受灾城市2003—2007的统计数据,对风暴潮灾害造成的间接损失进行科学评估,在此基础上测算了历年受灾城市的总损失,并制定出山东省风暴潮灾害综合损失分布的区划图。评估结果按综合损失程度排序依次是：威海、烟台、青岛、潍坊、东营、滨州、日照。     

The credit crunch and fall in employment during the Great Recession

We study how a bank credit crunch—a dramatic worsening of firm and consumer access to bank credit, such as the one observed over the Great Recession—translates into job losses in U.S. manufacturing industries. To identify the impact of the recent credit crunch, we rely on differences in the degree of dependence on external finance and of tangibility of assets across manufacturing industries and in the sensitivity of these industries׳ output to changes in the supply of consumer credit. We find that, for employment, household access to bank loans matters more than firm access to bank loans. In addition, we show that, over the recent financial crisis, tightening access to commercial and industrial loans and, in particular, consumer installment loans may have contributed significantly to the drop in employment in the manufacturing sector.     

What Explains the Valuation Difference between Intangible‐intensive Profit and Loss Firms?

Prior research suggests that loss firms are valued based on their abandonment/adaptation option values, while profit firms are valued as going concerns. However, conservative accounting treatment of expensing of R&D leads many R&D‐intensive firms to report losses even though they are not in financial distress. In this paper we investigate the difference in valuation of profit and loss firms that invest in intangibles, either through internal development (R&D) or purchases. The accounting treatment for internally developed intangibles is conservative in that US GAAP requires immediate expensing. Yet, it allows recognition of purchased intangibles. We find that in valuation of firms with high recognized‐intangible assets, book value has more prominence in loss firms than profit firms, while that is not the case for firms with high R&D expenditures. This suggests that their abandonment/adaptation option explains the difference in valuation between profit and loss firms with high recognized‐intangibles, while conservative accounting explains the valuation difference between profit and loss firms with high R&D intensity. This result suggests that recognition of intangibles in financial statements might mitigate the conservative bias in accounting numbers.     

Issues and strategies in ex-post evaluation of intervention against animal disease outbreaks and spread

Animal disease outbreaks pose a significant threat in terms of potential economic losses, reduced productivity, and negative impacts on public health, food security and nutrition. This paper considers four issues in ex-post evaluation of animal disease interventions: firstly, a counterfactual involves simulating disease trajectories without the intervention. But some diseases can become endemic or become dormant after an outbreak, making it a challenge to know the true trajectory without the intervention. Secondly, without adequate design of controls and treatments, how can the estimated impacts be attributed to a given intervention? Thirdly, how do we assess costs saved by the intervention? Fourthly, given data uncertainty, would a stochastic simulation give better estimates than a deterministic one in solving for key variables? This paper addresses these issues and proposes solutions that bridge the gap between household level analysis and macro-level simulations in modelling the impact of animal diseases outbreaks.     

宋词中草意象的生命内涵与创作得失

草意象是古代文学作品中一个十分醒目的文学意象,大致包括以下几种内容：时光之易逝的生命体验,历史兴亡的时空体验,离别主题,情感比喻。草意象有其词语与意象搭配上的选择性。文章最后列举了三首专咏春草的词以说明宋词在草意象创作上的得与失。     

Transparency and central bank losses in developing countries

Recent evidence shows central banks suffering from losses in some developing countries. This is a surprise to economists and policymakers. At the same time, these banks are asked to conduct monetary policy within a more transparent framework. Therefore, this paper seeks to answer the following question: Would more transparency in developing countries suffering from central bank losses be beneficial?This paper shows that the cost constraints of conducting monetary policy, central bank losses, in both transparency and opacity alike is significant and affects positively the error of the private sector in expected inflation rate and the output gap. In a country suffering from central bank losses, the expected benefits of transparency and the existence of cost constraint move in two opposite directions. As a result, it is unwise for developing countries suffering from central bank losses to focus on transparency. Priority should be given to fixing monetary policy and to developing financial markets.     

中国的灾害损失与保险业的发展

中国每年的灾害损失相当严重,而灾害损失补偿结构不尽合理,尤其是在世界各国中补偿比例相当高的商业保险补偿在中国并没有发挥其应有的作用。中国商业保险在灾害损失补偿中缺位的表现形式及其原因多样,但采取相关措施可促进中国商业保险业的进一步发展。     

Optimal Stopping and Losses on Subprime Mortgages

Lender losses on mortgage loans arise from a two-stage process. In the first stage, the borrower stops making payments if and when default is optimal. The second stage is a lengthy and costly period during which the lender employs legal remedies to obtain possession and execute a sale of the collateral. This research uses data on subprime mortgage losses to explore the role of borrower and collateral characteristics, and local legal requirements, as well as traditional option variables in the decisions of borrowers and lenders. Although subprime borrowers default earlier, which should reduce lender losses, these borrowers, nevertheless, impose greater realized losses on mortgage lenders.     

试论投资“分亏”与递延所得税

权益法下，被投资单位发生亏损，投资企业应按其应承担的份额确认投资损失，但税法上却不允许这些损失在税前扣除，已发生在税前扣除即计入损益的，纳税调整时将调增应纳税所得额而导致企业多缴所得税款，但这些多缴的所得税款在以后年度有可能得到弥补。本文从所得税处理和所得税会计处理两个方面分析和解决这一问题，并举实例用以佐证，以期加强对该问题的理解。