广西中期工业化纵深发展的战略思考

2011年,广西经济总量突破万亿,进入中期工业化阶段。接下来广西应该走怎样的工业化道路,是需要认真思考的问题。文章通过构建TCI指数,指出广西目前的重型化工业道路是一条不能实现经济可持续发展的道路。广西的工业发展需要走一条最优工业化道路,即按照广西的要素禀赋结构,选择最优工业技术水平,使企业具有自生能力,以最快的速度实现资本积累、技术进步和产业升级。     

The impact of population growth and climate change on food security in Africa: looking ahead to 2050

Providing nutritious and environmentally sustainable food to all people at all times is one of the greatest challenges currently facing society. This problem is particularly acute in Africa where an estimated one in four people still lack adequate food to sustain an active and healthy life. In this study, we consider the potential impact of future population growth and climate change on food security in Africa, looking ahead to 2050. A modelling framework termed FEEDME (Food Estimation and Export for Diet and Malnutrition Evaluation) was used which was characterized to model the impacts of future climate changes (utilizing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios projections) and projected population growth on food availability and subsequent undernourishment prevalence in 44 African countries. Our results indicate that projected rapid population growth will be the leading cause of food insecurity and widespread undernourishment across Africa. Very little to no difference in undernourishment projections were found when we examined future scenarios with and without the effects of climate change, suggesting population growth is the dominant driver of change. Various adaptation options are discussed, such as closing the yield gap via sustainable intensification and increasing imports through trade and aid agreements. These strategies are likely to be critical in preventing catastrophic future food insecurity.     

How to overcome the implementation gap in ecosystem services? A user-friendly and inclusive tool for improved urban management

One of the main issues with the concept of ecosystem services is its absence on the ground in concrete operational decision-making contexts; that is, an implementation gap. In this study, we investigated if this gap could be overcome through the use of open-source data and free tools, and the adoption of a short-term participatory process. We tested these methods in the context of a project in the urban metropolitan area of Bordeaux (Communauté urbaine de Bordeaux: CUB) in France. The ecosystem services were defined using a participatory approach involving local stakeholders, and then selected scenarios were simulated to test the impact of various development or conservation plans. The study addressed three main questions: (1) Is it possible to adopt a simple methodological approach that overcomes the implementation gap through the development of a user-friendly and inclusive method? (2) What is the added value of a participatory approach? (3) With regards to four scenarios in this territory, what are the ES trends in the selected biophysical and monetary indicators, and will knowledge of these trends help planners to shape a sustainable trajectory for the territory?     

财政压力、技术创新与绿色全要素生产率

经济社会转型期典型的中国式"压力型"财政，对地方创新活动和绿色可持续发展具有重要影响。运用2004~2017年中国256个地级市面板数据，实证考察了财政压力对绿色全要素生产率的影响以及传导机制。基准检验结果显示，财政压力显著抑制了绿色全要素生产率的提升，技术创新对绿色全要素生产率具有显著的促进作用；中介效应检验发现，财政压力通过抑制技术创新进而阻碍绿色全要素生产率的提升，即验证了财政压力→技术创新→绿色全要素生产率的传导机制；进一步门槛效应检验表明，技术创新对绿色全要素生产率的影响存在基于财政压力的双门槛效应，在财政压力的不同门槛值区间，技术创新对绿色全要素生产率的促进效应呈现出明显的阶梯性降低趋势。未来需综合完善中国式"压力型"财政激励制度，合理控制财政压力的区间范围，助力技术创新以提升城市绿色全要素生产率。     

How Should Slovenia Design Fiscal Policies in the Government Debt Crisis?

We investigate how fiscal policies should be designed in Slovenia during the next few years. Using the SLOPOL model, an econometric model of the Slovenian economy, we analyze the effects of different fiscal policies using simulations and determine optimal fiscal policies for Slovenia. We show that the optimal design of fiscal policies is rather close to the austerity course as detailed in the Slovenian Stability Program, revealing the small scope of possible alternative fiscal stabilization policies available due to the relatively low effectiveness of the fiscal instruments with respect to their influence on the business cycle in the Slovenian economy.     

Demand for,and impediments to,the disclosure of information about climate change-related corporate governance practices

Based on a survey of climate change experts in different stakeholder groups and interviews with corporate climate change managers, this study provides insights into the gap between what information stakeholders expect, and what Australian corporations disclose. This paper focuses on annual reports and sustainability reports with specific reference to the disclosure of climate change-related corporate governance practices. The findings culminate in the refinement of a best practice index for the disclosure of climate change-related corporate governance practises. Interview results indicate that the low levels of disclosures made by Australian companies may be due to a number of factors. A lack of proactive stakeholder engagement and an apparent preoccupation with financial performance and advancing shareholders interest, coupled with a failure by managers to accept accountability, seems to go a long way to explaining low levels of disclosure.     

IT外包的投资、再谈判机制分析

本文从IT承包商(vendor)和客户(client)的角度考虑去设计最优契约。由于客户方的需要,或者是由于契约的不完全性导致契约经常需要再谈判,而且由于契约修改后的执行问题也可能引起法律诉讼,因此对于如何决定事前的投资、谈判利润分配和契约诉讼的赔偿都是一系列要解决的问题,本文正是根据这些问题的提出而逐步展开的。     

The willingness to pay–willingness to accept gap: A failed replication of Plott and Zeiler

The well-known willingness to pay–willingness to accept (WTP–WTA) gap refers to the observation that individuals attach a higher value to objects they own (WTA) than to objects they do not own (WTP). We report on experiments to re-investigate the possibility that the WTP–WTA gap arises from subject misconceptions due to experimental procedures as suggested by Plott and Zeiler (2005). The contribution of this paper is two-fold: first, we attempt to replicate the findings by Plott and Zeiler that the WTP–WTA gap disappears when using procedures that are aimed at reducing misconceptions, such as extensive training and practice rounds for the BDM mechanism. However, we fail to do so as the WTP–WTA gap persists in the main task where subjects state their WTA or WTP for a mug. Second, we use the paid practice rounds to identify subjects without apparent misconceptions and find that also for those subjects who never make dominated choices in the lottery tasks, the WTP–WTA gap in the mug task exists. Thus, we find no evidence of the idea that subject misconceptions are the main source of the WTP–WTA gap.     

Consideration of technological and environmental heterogeneity in cost efficiency analysis

In order to evaluate and compare the efficiency levels across banking industries, we adopt the meta-frontier model that can assess the technological difference among countries. Given the importance of country specific conditions, we include in our analysis the different specificities of each country to incorporate the technological as the environmental differences in the evaluation of banking efficiencies. Using data on the banking industries of several countries in the MENA region, over the period 1991–2011, the results of the efficiency scores corrected by the technological and environmental gap led us to conclude that Egyptian banks are the most efficient in terms of cost compared with banks in other countries. Egyptian banks enjoy a very favourable banking technology. Our results support the hypothesis that traditional techniques of efficiency analysis based on the efficiency scores of a specific and pooled frontier tend to mystify efficiency levels and may incorrectly identify efficient banks. This paper contributes to the efficiency literature by incorporating technological and environmental heterogeneities in the evaluation of efficiency. This helps to characterize the production process of a bank and provides common standards by which the efficiencies of banks in different countries can be compared in a meaningful way with each other.     

HOW DO FISCAL CONSOLIDATION AND FISCAL STIMULI IMPACT ON THE SYNCHRONIZATION OF BUSINESS CYCLES?

Using quarterly data for a panel of advanced economies, we show that synchronized fiscal consolidation (stimulus) programmes in different countries make their business cycles more closely linked. We also find: (i) some evidence of decoupling when an inflation targeting regime is unilaterally adopted; (ii) an increase in business cycle synchronization when countries fix their exchange rates and become members of a monetary union; (iii) a positive effect of bilateral trade on the synchronization of business cycles. Global factors, such as a rise in global risk aversion and uncertainty and a reversal of nonstandard expansionary monetary policy, can also reduce the degree of co‐movement of business cycles across countries. From a policy perspective, our work shows that an inflation targeting regime coupled with simultaneous fiscal consolidations can lead to more business cycle synchronization.