Effect of pension replacement rate on economic growth： A theoretical model

In social pension system, the pension replacement rate is one of the key parameters. It not only determines the welfare of retirees and the finance balance of social pension system, but also has an effect on economic growth. This paper analyzes the effect of the pension replacement rate on economic growth with the standard overlapping generations＇ model, and suggests that the pension replacement rate should keep an appropriate level for economic growth and the development of the pension system.     

Till Death Do Us Part or I Get My Pension? Wives' Pension Holding and Marital Dissolution in the United States

Wives' financial independence gained from their pension may increase the risk of marital dissolution, especially when wives are approaching retirement age (the older wives' independence hypothesis). Applying single and simultaneous equations probit models to data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we investigate the effect of wives' pension holding in 1984 on the risk of subsequent marital dissolution. Results from the single equation model appear to support the older wives' independence hypothesis. However, results from the simultaneous equations model suggest that interpreting the single equation results as a sign of older wives' economic independence may be misleading.
JEL classification : C 33; D 31; J 12; J 32     

现金余额型职业养老金计划及其对我国的启示

现金余额型养老金计划是美国职业养老金近年衍生出的创新模式之一,作为混合型计划的一种,其兼具确定给付型和确定缴费型养老金制度的特点。本文运用比较法分析了现金余额型养老金计划的运行机理,进而在分析我国目前职业养老金面,临的困境的基础上,指出现金余额型养老金计划对我国职业养老金建设的借鉴意义,具体包括：DC计划不是职业养老金...     

日本养老服务体系及其财政问题争议

日本的社会保障体系由公共扶助、社会保险、社会福利、公共卫生与医疗四大部分构成,根据日本现行护理社会保险法之规定,护理社会保险服务由国家、都道府县、市町村的行政主管机构承担管理,在履行各自职能的同时提供服务。本文在简述日本福利服务及老年福利服务体系结构的基础上,着重分析日本的护理社会保险制度、服务体系及财政机制,围绕当前日本社会福利及护理社会保险制度存在问题展开的争议逐一加以分析,提出相应的课题与见解。     

国内外养老保险关系转移接续经验借鉴

养老保险关系转移接续是过渡时期我国养老保险体系整合的必经阶段,转续经验借鉴非常重要。本文从国内外转续典型入手,分别介绍了美国公务员养老保险转续、欧盟流动人口养老保险转续案例和我国城镇职工养老保险转续、成都市城乡居民养老保险转续制度,认为在权威法律的基础上,成立专门组织,明确转续基金比例和养老地判别标准,提高转续技术手段,构建转续平台,能够更好地完成转续目标,为全国养老保险的整合奠定基础。     

澳大利亚“安全和可持续”的国民养老金改革及启示

2009年9月澳大利亚政府颁布了＂安全和可持续＂的国民养老金改革计划。主要内容包括改革家计调查政策,提高国民养老金待遇水平,延长退休年龄,实施延长工作奖励计划等。这次改革对我国养老保障体系完善有如下启示：我国应当建立针对低收入群体的普惠制的国民养老金制度;以防止老年贫困,保障老年人最基本生活为目标;改革应注重政府调节和市场调节手段相结合;改革应兼顾不同群体利益,减少阻力。     

养老服务产业与区域经济发展的耦合协调分析

伴随着人口老龄化,养老服务产业的需求也在不断增加。养老产业的发展为区域经济提供了新的增长动力,区域经济的优化也为养老服务产业发展提供了基础保障,二者形成了相互影响、相互作用的耦合关系。基于中国31个省份38个指标的面板数据,借鉴耦合协调模型,评价我国区域经济和养老服务产业之间的耦合协调程度。总体来看,为适应人口老龄化趋势的中国养老服务产业发展还处于初级阶段,与区域经济发展水平不够协调;相对东部地区,中西部地区区域经济与养老服务产业之间的耦合协调程度较低;养老服务产业的发展不仅与区域经济发展水平正相关,也与社会发展水平正相关。养老服务产业可以为供给侧改革下区域经济结构调整提供产业空间,需要提供必要的产业发展指导与支持,以实现这两个子系统的动态协调与高质量发展。     

Pension plan solvency and extreme market movements: a regime switching approach

We develop and test a new approach to assess defined benefit (DB) pension plan solvency risk in the presence of extreme market movements. Our method captures both the ‘fat-tailed’ nature of asset returns and their correlation with discount rate changes. We show that the standard assumption of constant discount rates leads to dramatic underestimation of future projections of pension plan solvency risk. Failing to incorporate leptokurtosis into asset returns also leads to downward biased estimates of risk, but this is less pronounced than the time-varying discount rate effect. Further modifying the model to capture the correlation between asset returns and the discount rate provides additional improvements in the projection of future pension plan solvency. This reduces the perceived future risk of underfunding because of the negative correlation between interest rate changes and asset returns. These results have important implications for those with responsibility for balancing risk against expected return when seeking to improve the current poor funding positions of DB pension schemes.     

遗产动机与公共养老保险制度的效应分析

本文运用内生增长模型与世代重叠模型的结合分析，试图从理论上来探讨在考虑人们遗产动机的情况下，公共养老保险制度对于经济增长率和社会福利（social welfare）所产生的效应。在分析中，基金积累式养老保险制度的中立性的特征再次得以确认；同时，我们还发现在一定条件下，现收现付方式养老保险制度也可能保持中立性，即当具有遗产动机的个人对于今后养老保险制度拥有完全信息时，个人会将足够的遗产留与后代，使得后代在养老保险费上的负担与获取的遗产相抵，从而使得各代人消费路径以及资本积累路径不发生变化，因此，养老保险制度的建立也不会对经济增长率和社会福利水平产生影响。     

Voting on Pensions: A Survey

Abstract. The paper presents a nonexhaustive survey of the literature designed to explain emergence, size and political sustainability of pay‐as‐you‐go pension systems. It proposes a simple framework of analysis (a small, open, two overlapping generation economy model), around which some variants are displayed. Dictatorship of the median voter is assumed. The text is organized to answer the following questions: (i) Do political equilibria with PAYG pension schemes exist? (ii) Why do they emerge? (iii) What are the conditions for the participation constraint of the pension game to be verified?, and finally, (iv) What is the size of the pension system chosen by the median voter and how is this size influenced by an exogenous (e.g. demographic) shock?