Hiring Older Employees: Do the Age Limits of Early Retirement and the Contribution Rates of Firms Matter?

We examine the effects of a Finnish pension reform on firms' incentives to hire older employees. The reform restricted the eligibility ages for early retirement and changed the size‐related contribution rates of firms. According to our theoretical model, the positive effect on the values of new hires extends to age groups younger than those directly affected by the reform, and the effects are strongest in the largest firms. These model predictions were confirmed in a difference‐in‐difference‐in‐differences analysis on the probability of the hiring of workers of different ages in firms of different sizes.     

Personalized goal-based investing via multi-stage stochastic goal programming

In this paper, we propose a goal-based investment model that is suitable for personalized wealth management. The model only requires a few intuitive inputs such as size of wealth, investment amount, and consumption goals from individual investors. In particular, a priority level can be assigned to each consumption goal and the model provides a holistic solution based on a sequential approach starting with the highest priority. This allows strict prioritization by maximizing the probability of achieving higher priority goals that are not affected by goals with lower priorities. Furthermore, the proposed model is formulated as a linear program that efficiently finds the optimal financial plan. With its simplicity, flexibility, and computational efficiency, the proposed goal-based investment model provides a new framework for automated investment management services.     

供给侧改革视角下的养老旅游产业发展研究--以广东省阳江市为例

供给侧结构性改革作为适应和引领经济发展新常态的重大创新,用改革的办法对错配的供需结构和扭曲的要素配置进行矫正,根据需求结构变化及时优化供给结构,实现资源优化配置和经济长期均衡发展。阳江作为滨海旅游城市,应抓住机遇,深化养老旅游产业供给侧结构性改革,优化养老旅游产业的供给结构,合理配置养老旅游资源,扩大养老旅游服务的有效供给,推进养老旅游产业的持续健康发展。     

Pension plan solvency and extreme market movements: a regime switching approach

We develop and test a new approach to assess defined benefit (DB) pension plan solvency risk in the presence of extreme market movements. Our method captures both the ‘fat-tailed’ nature of asset returns and their correlation with discount rate changes. We show that the standard assumption of constant discount rates leads to dramatic underestimation of future projections of pension plan solvency risk. Failing to incorporate leptokurtosis into asset returns also leads to downward biased estimates of risk, but this is less pronounced than the time-varying discount rate effect. Further modifying the model to capture the correlation between asset returns and the discount rate provides additional improvements in the projection of future pension plan solvency. This reduces the perceived future risk of underfunding because of the negative correlation between interest rate changes and asset returns. These results have important implications for those with responsibility for balancing risk against expected return when seeking to improve the current poor funding positions of DB pension schemes.     

To defer or not defer? UK state pension and work decisions in a lifecycle model

The UK state pension (which depends only on age) includes an option to defer take up which yields either a subsequent lump sum or higher weekly pension. We analyse the joint decisions on pension deferral and intertemporal labour supply/participation in a lifecycle setting. We show that deferral is purely a financial decision, but the impact of deferral on work decisions depends on preferences, wage rates, non-labour income and initial wealth. To exactly characterize this, we use a quasilinear utility function and provide calibrated simulations. We also discuss the choice between a lump sum or increased weekly pension.     

养老建筑室内建筑环境的构建——以某市社会养老服务中心为例

养老地产在我国是一项新兴产业,作为该类建筑中的一个重要组成部分——供暖、通风与空气调节工程,其设计合理与否,对于居住环境和老年人身体健康的影响至关重要。设计人员为了力求打造一个更为适合老年人居住的建筑环境,结合具体工程,做了较为细致的探讨。文章对工程设计方案,包括采暖、空调方式,室内空气质量的控制,气流组织,工程材料选择,振动噪声控制,共五大方面,逐一作了介绍。     

新型农村社会养老保险对贫困群体生活的影响——基于 CHARLS2011～2015面板数据的分析

本文探讨了新型农村社会养老保险是否对低收入的贫困群体的生活产生更显著的效用,从而论证该制度是否助力扶贫工作。因为养老金是收入的组成部分,而收入有边际效用递减的特点,因此养老金对不同收入群体的效用可能存在差别。本文按家庭人均收入水平区分贫困与非贫困群体,基于CHARLS 2011 -2015年数据,采用多维贫困指标,使用断点回归发现新农保养老金对贫困参保群体在食品消费方面产生更显著的效用,有助于扶贫工作。并使用含复杂时变效应的二元变量模型,进一步发现该效用在养老金开始发放时显现。本文结论有利于认识新农保政策对扶贫的作用,并将扶贫工作和已有的社会保险政策结合,以提高扶贫工作效率。     

德国公共养老金调整指数改革研究

1957年德国首先建立了基于总工资指数的养老金调整指数,该指数运行34年后,面对人口老龄化的加剧,进行了多次改革。其改革的根本原因在于:基于养老金指数化调整的公共养老金计划缴税率不断攀升及由此对市场效率产生了严重负面影响。一个国家选择何种养老金调整指数取决于本国国情、经济发展状况等因素,但不能忽视调整指数对市场效率的影响,应坚持"效率优先,兼顾公平"的原则。作为发展中国家,中国在设计养老金调整指数时,坚持这一原则更为重要。     

退休人口再就业决策的影响因素研究 ——基于中国健康与养老追踪调查数据

夯实财富储备,改善劳动力有效供给是积极应对人口老龄化的重要措施。本文基于中国健康与养老追踪调查数据,全面考察了退休人口再就业的动因,着重分析享受养老待遇和养老待遇水平对退休人口再就业决策的影响。实证结果表明:享受养老待遇对退休人口再就业产生负激励效应;养老待遇水平提高会明显降低退休人口再就业的可能性;个人负债占资产比重越大,退休老年人再就业概率越高;配偶退休、年龄增大、健康状况差会显著降低退休人口再就业概率。对此,本文提出以下建议:适当延迟退休年龄,增加老年人口经济收入;养老保险制度应兼顾保障性和劳动力市场功能;构建老年就业服务体系,保障老年就业权利。