Government Deficit, Public Investment, and Public Capital in the Transition to an Aging Japan

This paper examines the effects of government deficits, public investment, and public capital on welfare in the transition to an aging Japan by applying a simulated general equilibrium growth model. One of the main results of this paper is that targeting only high economic growth would mislead us as to economic policies, and that a policy to reduce future government deficits is most preferable for almost all generations, even though a cut in future deficits must be followed by a decrease in public investment, thus a decrease in public capital in the future. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 2002, 16(4), pp. 462–491. Faculty of Economics, Shiga University, Japan; and Management School, Imperial College, United Kingdom. © 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: H55, H54, H62, C68, J10.     

Consistency of UK Pension Fund Investment Performance

Transition matrix techniques are used to relate the past and present performance of pension fund portfolios. In particular, funds are ranked to study the tendency of portfolios to remain in the same quartile of the ranking as they were in the previous period. For raw returns, funds in both of the top quartiles are found to be more likely to remain in the same quartile than would be expected by chance. This result can be taken as limited evidence for the consistency of performance. Similar systemic effects are observed on a risk-adjusted basis. There appears to be clear evidence that some fund managers can offer a degree of consistent good performance.     

养老保险媒体宣传的差异及助推效应分析

借助文本分析技术,基于国家级与省级官方媒体大数据,构建了媒体宣传指数,并分析其对养老保险的助推效应。研究发现,媒体对不同支柱养老保险的宣传重视差异较大,对第二和第三支柱关注较少,且在中西部地区尤为突出;媒体宣传对养老保险发展有明显的助推效应,能扩大参保广度,但对参保深度的提升有限。据此,政府应加大第二和第三支柱的媒体宣传力度,促进养老保险三支柱的平衡发展,筑牢全民养老保障基础。     

中国养老保险统筹账户的财务可持续性研究——基于开放系统的测算

文章运用精算估计方法,预测分析了我国城镇职工养老保险统筹账户的财务状况和财务可持续性。研究结果表明,年度支付危机会在2018-2036年之间出现,2023-2050年内源性基金累积不足值得格外关注。从长期看,如果没有外源性融资,仅靠制度本身的资金支持,统筹账户的财务可持续性难以为继。现阶段政府关注的重点应是如何扩大养老保险收入来源和完善养老保险的制度设计。     

新生代农民工参与养老保险约束条件及路径设计

新生代农民工作为一个庞大的社会群体进入城市,推动着中国工业化、城市化进程加快,他们有着强烈的市民化需求却因养老保险的缺失而严重受阻,不但有损新生代农民工切身利益,也不利于和谐社会构建。基于新生代农民工养老保险构建过程中所面临的各种约束,应以新生代农民工可持续就业为核心、以政府为主导、以土地流转为途径、以自身保障意识为前提的发展模式,确保新生代农民工养老效益得到有效保障。     

新型农村养老保障制度改革——北京模式的探索意义及其适用条件

本文以北京模式为案例,探讨了新型农村养老保障体制改革的主要特征和改革方向。北京模式明确提出政府提供基本养老保障的职责,推动建立人人共有的基本养老保障制度,使其具有研究价值和经验借鉴意义。当然,北京市的社会经济发展水平和财政能力,使其推广上应注意适用条件,特别是针对人口老龄化水平高的中西部劳动力输出大省,以及财政能力薄弱的省份,单纯依靠地方财政将面临巨大的财政压力。在分税制的情况下,需要在制定合理的财政补贴标准基础上,科学地划分中央财政和地方财政的支持比例,才能确保财政的可持续性,建立全国统一的新型农村养老保障体系。     

我国农村社会养老保险覆盖率的实证考察与政策建议

基于2003年～2010年相关数据,运用社会养老保险制度覆盖率计算公式,对农村社会养老保险覆盖率从纵向和横向(城乡差异)进行实证比较分析,指出制度模式、农民的收入水平、制度保障水平、城镇社会养老保险的历史债务以及社会养老保险关系转移的便捷性等问题是造成"新农保"覆盖率较低的重要原因,并从加快制度推进、提供多种制度模式、增加农民收入、提高制度保障水平以及以家庭为参保单位等方面,提出了政策建议。     

养老基金最低收益保证制度下的最优资产配置——来自中国1998-2008年数据的模拟分析

文章主要研究养老基金最低收益保证制度及其框架下的资产配置问题.利用鞅方法创新性地给出了最优资产配置策略,随后分析了最低收益保证制度对最优资产配置的影响.结果表明,外部机构的利润分享比例越大,保证额度越高,养老基金投资风险资产的比例越高,但随着时间的推移,其风险投资将逐步降低.最后,文章利用所得结论为我国设立最低收益保证制度提供了建议:即我国应设立相对额度的最低收益保证制度;应由政府部门或非盈利机构提供这种最低收益保证,且不宜采取利润分享原则;保证额度应适度,过高会导致养老基金的投资风险过高,而过低则达不到稳定退休者收入的效果.     

德国公共养老金调整指数改革研究

1957年德国首先建立了基于总工资指数的养老金调整指数,该指数运行34年后,面对人口老龄化的加剧,进行了多次改革。其改革的根本原因在于:基于养老金指数化调整的公共养老金计划缴税率不断攀升及由此对市场效率产生了严重负面影响。一个国家选择何种养老金调整指数取决于本国国情、经济发展状况等因素,但不能忽视调整指数对市场效率的影响,应坚持"效率优先,兼顾公平"的原则。作为发展中国家,中国在设计养老金调整指数时,坚持这一原则更为重要。     

The optimal portfolio for the two-pillar mandatory pension system: the case of Poland

In the recent decade, there has been observed across the Central and Eastern European states the regulatory trend towards the increase of the non-financial (first) pension pillar size at the expense of the financial (second) pillar. It tends to question the consequences of this shift for the future retirement benefits. Applying the portfolio approach we address this issue by running a series of simulations to find out how to allocate pension contributions between both pillars in an optimal way. Our study contributes to the existing literature as follows. First, we do not perform the assessment of the predetermined regulatory solutions, but we look for an optimal one. Moreover, we allow our optimal rule to be time-varying, if necessary, which would be a true novelty in this research area. Second, we do not base our estimates on historical trends; rather, we apply the long-term economy’s projection to account for the society’s ageing impact, which is a crucially important factor for the solvency of the pension system. Adapting some of the simulation assumptions to fit the Polish case, our results confirm that current regulations underestimate the role of the capital pillar and the optimal allocation between both pillars should be time-varying.