Is the Sky the Limit? Can Japanese Government Bonds Continue to Defy Gravity?

This paper presents a simulation model based on the growth rate, the inflation rate, and the consumption tax rate in the future. Future tax revenues and fiscal expenditures are projected using regression models estimated from past data. The fiscal situation is called unsustainable if the outstanding amount of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) becomes higher than the level of private sector financial assets. We focus on the general account of the central government, which is the source of JGB issues. We find that the higher the economic growth, the more likely it is that the fiscal situation is sustainable. When a larger portion of interest income is reinvested in JGBs, the chance is higher that the fiscal situation is sustainable. Most importantly, raising the consumption tax to 20% guarantees fiscal sustainability in most cases. Our analysis shows that without a consumption tax hike beyond the 10% rate, a fiscal crisis will be almost a certainty, even with a real economic growth rate of 2% despite a shrinking labor force. A reasonably quick hike of the consumption tax, namely a hike by 1% a year, up to 20%, combined with high or moderate economic growth rates, seems to keep the economy out of a fiscal crisis, where a moderate growth rate is defined to be generated by a productivity increase per working‐age population of 1.9%, which was the average during the Koizumi years.     

营业税改征增值税的税率评估——基于可计算一般均衡模型的研究

营业税改征增值税是完善我国税制的一个重要举措,确定各个产业部门改征增值税后的税率是其中一个关键的环节。运用可计算一般均衡模型可以评估营业税改征增值税之后不同税率的选择对宏观经济和产业结构的影响。政策模拟的结果显示,目前正在实施的营业税改征增值税的试点方案权衡了对财政收入和经济增长以及经济结构的影响,是对经济运行影响较小的稳健选择。     

Does the WTO Increase Trade and Cause Convergence?

We study whether proximity to the nearest tax haven affects FDI and the number of American affiliates in a tax haven. Our results show that distance to the nearest tax haven is positively related to FDI inflows and the number of American affiliates in tax havens. These findings suggest that there is harmful competition between tax havens. We also find evidence of positive spillovers: the number of American affiliates in a tax haven is positively related to the number of affiliates in its closest neighboring tax haven. This suggests the presence of agglomeration benefits given there is an affiliate in a nearby tax haven.     

Tax competition with asymmetric market structures: The role of policy instruments*

We analyze the location choice of a multinational corporation (MNC) between two host countries with different market structures, i.e. the number of competing domestic firms in them. We consider the effects of import tariffs and lump-sum subsidies on the MNC's locational choice. Our findings include: (1) with lump-sum subsidy, the country with fewer firms always gets the MNC, (2) with tariffs, the country with more domestic firms gets the MNC when the export transportation cost is high and the domestic firms are sufficiently inefficient, while the country with fewer domestic firms wins the MNC when export transportation cost is low, and (3) the MNC location decision may crucially depend on which instrument is used to attract the MNC.     

Choice and design of regulatory instruments in the presence of green consumers

Using a vertically differentiated product model, this paper examines welfare implications of various government policies in a situation where consumers are environmentally discerning. It studies ad valorem taxes/subsidies and emission taxes. The optimal policy depends on the magnitude of damage parameter associated with environmental externality. For a given distribution of tastes and preferences, as the damage parameter increases from a low to a high value, the optimal policy shifts from an ad valorem tax to an ad valorem subsidy. It also shows that for a sufficiently low damage parameter, an ad valorem tax dominates an emission tax.     

Integrated water and economic modelling of the impacts of water market instruments on the South African economy

A static computable general equilibrium model of South Africa is adapted to compare new taxes on water demand by two industries, namely forestry, and irrigated field crops. Comparisons are made with respect to both the short and the long run, in terms of three target variables, namely (i) the environment; (ii) the economy; and (iii) equity. Since the taxes on the two industries do not raise the same amount of revenue, the target variables are calculated per unit of real government revenue raised by the new taxes (also referred to as the marginal excess burdens of the taxes). The model results are robust for moderate values of the water elasticity of demand in the two industries, in both the long and the short run. The tax on irrigated field crops performs better in terms of all three the target variables in the short run. In the long run the tax on irrigated filed crops is better in terms of water saving, but reduces real GDP and the consumption by poor households.     

税务代理制度建构与税收通则法条文设计

税务代理涉及纳税主体权利保护、征税主体的行政效率以及一国税制的有效运行和完善,我国《税收基本法（税收通则法）》应该对其加以规范,学者对此也有不同建言。文章通过对税务代理制度建构的法理分析,对照典型国家税务代理立法例,分析了我国现有税务代理制度运行中存在的主要矛盾和问题,提出了完善我国税务代理制度的建议,并拟订了《税收基本法（税收通则法）》有关税务代理的具体条款。     

促进科技创新的税收激励政策——英美等国的主要经验及其启示

创新体系理论对税收激励政策有重要的影响。创新的税收激励,特别是R&D税收抵扣政策,在发达国家有效地保留和吸引了R&D投资。那些在税收激励上最慷慨的国家均是吸引外来R&D投资最多的国家。R&D抵扣直接利益是刺激R&D投入。美国R&D税收抵扣有3种方案,即传统抵扣、选择性增量研究抵扣(AIRC)和选择性简化抵扣(ASC);英国主要是增强型扣除。政策设计时要参考多种因素。我国施行R&D税收抵扣政策,要研究制定统一的、供税收目的的R&D支出标准,出台具体的实施办法,并注意政策的可操作性、可预测性、一致性和稳定性。     

Tari–tax reforms and market access

Reducing taris and increasing consumption taxes is a standard IMF advice to countries that want to open up their economy without hurting government finances. Indeed, theoretical analysis of such a tari–tax reform shows an unambiguous increase in welfare and government revenues. The present paper examines whether the country that implements such a reform ends up opening up its markets to international trade, i.e. whether its market access improves. It is shown that this is not necessarily so. We also show that, comparing to the reform of only taris, the tari–tax reform is a less efficient proposal to follow both as far as it concerns market access and welfare.     

房地产开发企业土地增值税的税收筹划研究

税收筹划是房地产开发企业财务管理的重要内容。对于房地产开发企业来说,筹划空间最大、最直接的税务筹划就是对土地增值税的筹划。本文重点阐述利用增值税临界点进行税收筹划、借款利息的筹划实务、代收费用处理过程中的税收筹划、将出租变为投资进行税收筹划、合法利用土地增值税减免政策五项内容。