On the forecastability of share prices on the Viennese stock exchange

In this paper the Viennese stock exchange data are analysed by using ARMA and GARCH technology. After using AIC and BIC for estimating the linear structure of the time series, to the resulting innovations a GARCH(1,1) model is fit. The resulting residuals are then tested for serial independence and constancy of its distribution to check whether the models are reasonable. Main result is that the residuals of this ARMA-GARCH(1,1)-model are reasonably iid (which is checked by BDS and classical independence tests) for index data and significantly less well-behaved for stock data. Second, there is considerable autocorrelation in the data (especially in the Viennese indices WBK and ATX) which can be exploited even with 1.25% transaction costs (which is checked by a posteriori analysis of a strategy which exploits an underlying time-varying AR(1) model), however, much higher profit can be made with 0.5% transaction costs. Furthermore, the same techniques are applied to US Standard & Poor 500 index and the results for both data sets are compared giving the result that the US-market looks much more mature than the Viennese one.Financial Support by the Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, and the Fonds zur Förderung der wissenschaftlichen Forschung, Vienna, Grant P 9176 is gratefully acknowledged. This paper is a slightly abbreviated version of the Research Report No. 135 by the same authors (see References), which contains many detailed plots of the results.     

项目总控的应用及其信息处理规划

随着国内大型建设项目的增多，大型建设项目的实施遇到诸多问题，其原因主要是业主对项目的控制能力不强，从而导致大型建设项目不能实现其质量、进度、投资等预期目标，甚至会导致整个项目的失败，项目总控模式的应用很大程度地解决了这一问题，另外，由于信息处理是项目总控的主要工作，因此，本也讨论了项目总控模式下的信息处理规划。     

建筑物整体平移新技术施工中的质量管理和工期管理

新技术建筑工程往往没有相应的设计和施工技术规范，在施工中如何进行质量管理和工期管理是一个崭新的课题。本结合建筑物整体平移工程施工中的管理经验，简单讨论了新技术建筑工程施工的特点和质量管理和工期管理。     

对加入WTO后"以市场换技术"的思考

“以市场换技术”是20世纪80年代中后期以来我国吸引外国直接投资的重要目标之一。本文首先简要回顾了中国在加入WTO前的“以市场换技术”战略,在此基础上,分析了在加入WTO后“以市场换技术”的政策环境和外资在华行为的变化以及国际产业发展呈现出的新趋势,最后对如何促进“以市场换技术”提出了若干建议。     

近10年日本宏观经济的理论分析与展望

近10年日本经济停滞不前，一方面对外经济状况不佳：日元对美元汇率技术下跌。且不断加剧；出口增长放缓，贸易顺差连续下滑，另一方面国内宏观经济状况严峻；失业率不断上升，内需不振；通货紧缩逐步加深；工业增长持续低迷，工业生产与效益下降，究其原因，用内外均衡模型理论分析得出，日本经济没有达到均衡的0点，内外均衡遭到了破坏，而展望今后的日本经济和日元走势，基于日本财政状况的恶化及货币政策的失效，估计还不会导致资本的大量外流。也不会对资本流动产生重要的影响，而结构改革也将可能引致日元升值。     

Persistence of Output Fluctuations Under Different Exchange Rate Regimes

In a recent paper, Giugale and Korobow (2000) present evidence that suggests that the time required by output to return to trend following a financial shock is faster under a flexible exchange rate regime than under a fixed exchange rate. In this paper, we use vector autoregression models to measure the persistence properties of output for a number of countries in the Asia–Pacific region. Our results suggest that output persistence is not uniquely related to a country's choice of exchange rate regime. The two countries in our sample with the least persistent output following a financial shock are Australia, where the exchange rate is fully flexible, and Hong Kong, where it is rigidly fixed via a currency board.     

HSK与对外汉语教学课程内容的调整

HSK是为了测试母语为非汉语的人所掌握的汉语水平而设立的国家级标准化考试,它日益为人们所重视,但对外汉语教学的课程不能为HSK考试而设立,应该着眼于学生的汉语实际应用。HSK与教学之间应该是相辅相成的关系,可以根据HSK对教学内容作适当调整。     

Bilateral Trade Balances: Evidence from Malaysia*

This study examines the impacts of real exchange rates on the bilateral trade balances of Malaysia with the USA, Japan and Singapore. The results for the long‐run cointegrating vectors show that depreciation or devaluation of real exchange rates will improve bilateral trade balances. In the short run, there is some evidence of the J‐curve phenomenon. Changes in real money supply contribute greatly to changes in real exchange rates. Generally, changes in real exchange rates contribute significantly to changes in bilateral trade balances. Monetary policy can be used to influence bilateral trade balances.     

质量的产能约束、信息不对称与大销量倾向:以食品安全为例

食品安全关系到每一个人的健康与生存,但以乳品为代表的食品类企业却往往忽视质量控制而热衷于销量扩张.本文从技术约束和信息不对称的角度对此给出了一种解释.分析表明:竞争压力未必是解释该现象的关键因素;只要产品的市场容量较大、并且在投资不足的前提下提供优质产品的产能相对较小,即使没有竞争的压力,厂商在质量控制上的投资也不充分,而且总是热衷于低价大销量的营销方式,后者被消费者视为投资充分的不完美信号.增强监管无法从根本上改变厂商投资不足且追逐大销量的现状,但能增加厂商高投资的可能性、提高产品的平均质量.我们的结论在一定程度上吻合乳品等国内食品企业高速扩张但忽视质量控制的现状.     

考后放松游市场特征分析及开发探讨

近年来,伴随旅游业的蓬勃发展,考后放松游逐渐兴起并日益升温。潜力巨大,收益率颇高。研究发现：考后放松游出游时间长且相对集中;考后放松游游客消费能力较强;出游形式多样,港澳地区成为考后放松游游客最理想的旅游目的地;考后放松游游客对滨海旅游线路和名校参观体验游表现出明显的偏好。针对考后放松游以上特点,进行定量分析。得出考后放松游市场人均消费总额的构成因素,旨在揭示其规律,为今后相关研究打下基础并提供依据。