Domestic financial market frictions,unrestricted international capital flows,and crises in small open economies

Summary. We present an example of a small open economy where small increases in the world interest rate may induce a sharp decline in output and a precipitous depreciation of the exchange rate. Due to a costly state verification problem in domestic credit markets, combined with unrestricted international capital flows, our economy generates two long-run equilibria, one with low GDP and a relatively depreciated real exchange rate (RER), and one with high GDP and a relatively appreciated RER. The first is always a saddle, while the second may be a sink or a source, depending on the level of the world interest rate. A crisis is identified with the economy switching from an equilibrium path approaching the high-output steady state to the saddlepath approaching the low-output steady state. In Mexicos recent history, periods of growth associated with appreciation of the RER have alternated with periods of sharp contraction and depreciation of the RER. Our economy displays such behavior in response to changes in the world interest rate.Received: 9 April 2002, Revised: 20 March 2003JEL Classification Numbers: E5, F4.G. Antinolfi, E. Huybens: We thank Steve Fazzari, Tim Kehoe, Todd Keister, Manuel Santos, Karl Shell and especially Bruce Smith for very helpful discussions. Jaime Calleja Alderete, Eduardo Camero Godínez, and Juan Vargas Hernández provided excellent research assistance. All remaining errors are ours. Huybens was an assistant professor in the Centro de Investigación Económica, ITAM, at the time this article was written, and part of this work was completed while Antinolfi was a visiting scholar at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The views expressed herein are those of the authors, and do not reflect those of the World Bank or the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Correspondence to: G. Antinolfi     

An approximation to the limit distribution of the epps-pulley test statistic for normality

Summary The approach of Epps and Pulley (1983) based on the empirical characteristic function is one of the most powerful tools for detecting any departures from normality. We obtain the first four moments of the limiting null distribution of the Epps-Pulley Statistic. Johnson- and Pearson curve fitting yields excellent approximations to simulated quantiles, and by modifying the test statistic the procedure may be carried out easily without the use of extensive tables for all sample sizes. Research done while the author was on leave at the University of Gie?en.     

关于人民币远期定价权问题的研究

本文通过静态及动态的两类模型对人民币远期定价权问题进行了研究。结果表明,我国人民币远期市场尚未摆脱境外NDF市场的影响,NDF市场仍是影响人民币远期定价的主要因素。而2005年8月以来我国外汇市场推出的各项改革措施,使得基于利率平价的定价机制开始在人民币利率的决定中发生作用;我国人民币远期市场定价机制尚未实现从基于预期的定价机制向利率平价的转变,我国银行间人民币远期市场尚未掌握人民币远期定价的主导权,但基于利率平价的人民币远期定价机制在人民币远期定价中所起的作用越来越显著。在此基础上,本文提出了相应的政策建议。     

国际购买力平价和简化净出口函数:中国实证

文章从国际交换价值的角度研究了一价定律的内涵,提出了国际购买力平价理论,并且证明了国际购买力平价是严格意义上的均衡汇率。2009年人民币贸易品购买力平价为6.70元人民币/美元,而国际购买力为5.49元人民币/美元,后者可作为确定人民币汇率处于均衡水平的参考。文章还简化了净出口函数,得出如下主要结论:(1)近年我国的贸易顺差大幅增长,主要是因为价格贸易条件恶化,其次是因为J曲线效应;(2)当前的首要任务是改善我国的价格贸易条件以提高国际购买力平价,而不是调整人民币汇率。     

浅谈我国招投标形成废标的原因及其应对措施

招投标过程中导致废标的因素很多,如投标人以他人名义投标、串通投标、以行贿手段谋取中标或以其他弄虚作假方式投标、投标人的恶性竞标、招标人本身的因素等。对这些因素进行分析有利于减少或避免废标的产生。本文通过对废标的原因剖析,对其所产生的后果进行应对并提出防范措施,使招投标工作能顺利进行。     

发展中国家粮食安全与贫困——基于“交换权利映射”的分析

发展中国家贫困的特征表现为生产力和人均收入水平低,这两点导致了发展中国家个人的粮食获取能力受到制约。市场交易、自行生产和粮食援助是个体获取粮食的三种渠道。贫困通过对这些因素的影响最终导致了对粮食安全的威胁。"交换权利映射"通过个体拥有的资源与交换权利集合的映射关系说明了在发展中国家因为贫困而导致的个体拥有的资源匮乏而使其处在粮食不安全集合中。     

整合港口信息服务资源的国外经验借鉴

首先对信息服务资源的概念进行界定,然后对本课题的研究意义进行了必要的说明,指出整合信息服务资源是第四代港口的发展要求。接着,提出了整合港口信息服务资源的三个层次:战略层次、战术层次和技术层次。然后,结合三个具有代表性的国外著名港口信息服务资源的整合状况,得出三点借鉴。一是港口一体化,进行跨港资源整合;二是港口内部,物流供应链角度,各企业部门间的信息整合,三是技术支持,新技术的采用和信息平台的集成。     

A review of the business case for CSR in the hospitality industry

Despite prolific research on corporate social responsibility (CSR) in its various forms in the hospitality industry, there is no consensus regarding the business case for CSR initiatives. Using a stakeholder lens, we review the research on CSR and its rationale by analyzing its impact on the environment, employees, customers, community, and investors in the hospitality industry. Our review analyzes 170 articles published between 1990 and 2017 covering different conceptual frameworks, measures, and samples to evaluate the current state of the field, integrate findings, identify gaps, and suggest avenues for future research. Our review calls for a) more studies that examine hospitality-specific CSR initiatives to examine impact on firm performance, b) greater theory-driven research, and c) expansion of contexts both in terms of different sectors of the industry and geographical locations, than is covered by existing studies. Future research directions are provided.     

我国近期通货膨胀的影响因素与治理对策

自08年金融危机以来,我国通货膨胀的问题随着2009年经济呈现"v"型反转的出现也显现出来了,而且呈现愈加严重的情况.本文对当前我国的经济形势进行了分析,从而对形成我国通货膨胀的主要原因进行了研究总结,并提出了相应的治理对策.     

“默示同意”：合理博弈与不完善制度——郑百文重组过程中表决规则的经济学分析

当主持者对表决方式有选择余地时,那么他会根据自己的偏好,直接或间接影响表决结果,这是无法避免的,是在现有制度下的一种合理博弈,是有效的。如果他本身就是博弈的一方,则更会充分利用这种影响。而主持人对议案内容的偏好是广泛存在的,不可能通过消除偏好来消除影响。但是如果加强民主和监督,使主持者的选择余地尽可能缩小,即他只能选择社会承认的最优的“公平”规则才符合他自己的成本－－收益平衡,那么这样就使个人的最优选择与社会的最优选择一致,提供了制度上的改进办法。而在未有更高程度的民主和更有效的监督制度之前,只能容忍在现有制度内的博弈行为。所以,只有通过进一步加强民主和健全法制,进行表决规则的制度建设,才有可能得到更优化和更真实的表决结果。